Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[yamkin]

"K" levels on the rise...

[kar999]

Looks like they are falling not rising...

Everything way too weak and activity too far north for me..

Edited September 10, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

The activity we were seeing yesterday from 4pm through to the late evening looks to me like the effects from another cme. There may have perhaps been a very brief opportunity to see the NL between 10 and 11pm and you were north of 55N.

I was eager to see the daily NOAA space weather report and forecast to see if they say anything about (or have even noticed) the large filament eruption from somewhere centre disk, I also wanted to know their thoughts on possible geomagnetic effects from the coronal hole wind stream that's expected to arrive in the next 24 hours. They do report on the filament eruption but are still analysing its 'potential geo-effectiveness, no more is said on that subject. They forecast a period of 'unsettled' conditions during the passage of the coronal hole wind stream, in layman's terms 'unsettled' is conditions equating to kp3, I disagree. The ch's influance will cause a peak kp of 5 with a dominant kp of 4 ('active' to 'minor storm' levels) because of the coronal hole's size and depth. That is of course presuming that the filament eruption from yesterday and any other recent 'possible' earth directed cme activity does NOT co-incide with the ch wind stream's presence. If there is an overlapping period where the incoming solar wind has influance from both the 'ch' and any cme's then periods of minor storming (k5-6) is very likely and a period of major storming (kp7) is possible.

Final update on the large active region that is (for not much longer) on the farside of the sun.

This morning's gong farside map shows a growth in size which was not my expectation, recent farside eruptions were a good reason for this area to start decaying as it probably did over the last 48 hours but today's gong tells a different story.

This large active area is now close enough to the limb that we can see huge filaments spread out over a large area possibly towering more than 100,000 km from the solar surface. Below are images of the sun taken in two different wavelengths, the first is a wavelength suited to detecting the larger active magnetic filaments, the second is a good wavelength for detecting limb flares and very active areas of magnetism on the edges of the disk. Click on 'em to zoom and take a look.

not long now!!!!

Also forgot to add, sunspot 1289 is currently positioned well for earth directed activity and has grown to quite an impressive size, throughout the course of yesterday I believe there was some C class flaring. To me it feels a little 'deja vu' when comparing to 1283 (the sunspot recently responsible for several M/X class flares).

If growth continues around this region and it continues it's trend of forming a more chaotic magnetic structure then it will be capable of some major flaring very soon.

Edited September 11, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

GeorgeWX, Very good summary and I totally agree with your findings. Magnetosphere is getting a hammering again.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

[yamkin]

Magnetosphere is being hammered even more right now http://www2.nict.go....time/index.html

Edited September 11, 2011 by yamkin

[kar999]

Magnetosphere is being hammered even more right now

It's just the solar wind blowing up a bit continuing to cause some mild storming activity at higher latitudes... nothing too exciting for us..

Edited September 11, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

It's just the solar wind blowing up a bit continuing to cause some mild storming activity at higher latitudes... nothing too exciting for us..

the solar wind readings are indicitive of an influance from that large coronal hole mentioned earlier, we should be feeling the 'breeze' for at least the next 24-36 hours.

Another deja vu moment as there seems to be a second large filament eruption coming from centre disk, looking at all the imagery available it looks like this time it may have originated from earth facing sunspot 1289, and again like the last filament eruption, the solar x-ray flux made little response during the event. We'll see what NOAA say when their daily report is issed (22:00 UTC). It's looking a lot to me like this will be aimed well towards our planet.

Also i'll post up 2 solar images, at the same two wavelengths as the images I posted this morning, comparing them to this evenings images it brings it home just how active the region on the limb really is. I would like to wait another few hours until I can directly see the sunspot configuration before saying that it is capable of severe flaring (X5+) at it's current state. The possibility of impressive limb flaring exists as well as earth directed proton storms during any such event.

Edited September 11, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Tonight's NOAA report is out, they mention that sunspot 1289 is showing signs of decay, but at the moment remains large. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of M-class flaring from this region in the coming 24 hours. They also confirm the arrival of the ch wind stream around 2pm UTC. There is no mention of today's filament eruption from around the region of earth facing sunspot 1289.

In terms of forecasted earth effects NOAA now believe that tomorrow and Tuesday the geomagnetic field will be unsettled to active (k3-k4) with potential for minor storming (k5-6). They mention yesterday's filament eruption may be geo-effective.

[yamkin]

Kp Index has increased to K4 boundary level

[yamkin]

Kp Index has increased to K4 boundary level

[frogesque]

3 CMEs and a wopping coronal hole and all the Sun managed to produce was a rather poor Kp 7 on our dear blue marble

Kp 7 has little effect and I realy think we need less hype about Earth shattering events.

[kar999]

Total agree Frogseque. We are only witnessing the normal effects of the increase in activity as we head towards a new solar maximum. All good stuff and long overdue but nothing unusual.

Maybe the last prolonged solar minimum has made people forget what normal increased solar activiity is like ... and given journalists too much time to dream up scaremongering doomsday scenarios. Yes it might happen.... maybe next week ... or maybe not until next century.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Total agree Frogseque. We are only witnessing the normal effects of the increase in activity as we head towards a new solar maximum. All good stuff and long overdue but nothing unusual. Maybe the last prolonged solar minimum has made people forget what normal increased solar activiity is like ... and given journalists too much time to dream up scaremongering doomsday scenarios. Yes it might happen.... maybe next week ... or maybe not until next century.

Or maybe even longer than that, we only really have had ONE humdinger of a storm back in the mid 1800's, we don't really know how common they are, plus, there have to be extenuating circumstances for major disruption.

As you said though, it's not in the media's interest to play it down

[GeorgeWX]

Or maybe even longer than that, we only really have had ONE humdinger of a storm back in the mid 1800's, we don't really know how common they are,

I think the best estimates so far of Carrington type events is roughly every 500 years, mainly using ice core samples. A lot of variables would have been in play around those days prior to and during that particular geomagnetic storm, The initial shock from the CME was off the scale, One factor perhaps being several major earth directed CME's in the days before the September 1st flare, clearing the sun-earth path.

What we do know is that the Carrington flare event is not the fastest in terms of sun-earth transit time, it took just over 17.5 hours. The fastest flare to date happened in August 1972 taking only 14 and a half hours to transit the 93 million miles.

What we also know is during the geomagnetic storm on the 2nd of September 1859, the most southerly reported sighting of aurora was at 20N, However during the geomagnetic storm of 4th of February 1872, there was confirmed aurora at 19N and several people reported aurora as far south as 3N!!!

The furthest south the aurora has managed to get during the 20th century was 28N occuring in 1958, The only other time that the aurora got south of 30N was during the 1989 geomagnetic storm, the one famed for blowing Quebec's grid. (29N)

I'm not doubting that the 1859 event was huge, it certainly was. But there have been several sun-earth events since 1859 that (at least) come close. Remember it was on that day that solar science was really born, there was very little solar data around the world recording the carrington flare and it's after effects.

Edited September 13, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Geomagnetic activity is now settling due to subsiding effects from the ch stream, expectations were met with average planetery kp of 4 and peak planetery kp of 5.

Earth facing sunspot 1289 has remained quiet overall with a 25% reduction in size over the last 48 hours.

The region of interest which is recently appeared over the limb continues to show aggression, around 80% of the huge area is now on the earth facing 'half' of the sun. So far there have been several long duration (cme related) C class flares including a C9.9. Individual sunspots within the area are small in relation to 1289 but the overall area is continuing to demonstrate a very high level of activity. M class flaring is likely to happen around this area of active magnetism, X class flaring is also possible (a lot more likely than the 1% chance that NOAA are forecasting!).

Currently numbered sunspots within this area include 1295 and 1296.

There remains the chance of a hit from the filament eruptions that left the sun on 10th-11th September, the likely outcome would be conditions amounting to kp4-5 for a short period of time.

Edited September 14, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I think the best estimates so far of Carrington type events is roughly every 500 years, mainly using ice core samples. A lot of variables would have been in play around those days prior to and during that particular geomagnetic storm, The initial shock from the CME was off the scale, One factor perhaps being several major earth directed CME's in the days before the September 1st flare, clearing the sun-earth path.

What we do know is that the Carrington flare event is not the fastest in terms of sun-earth transit time, it took just over 17.5 hours. The fastest flare to date happened in August 1972 taking only 14 and a half hours to transit the 93 million miles.

What we also know is during the geomagnetic storm on the 2nd of September 1859, the most southerly reported sighting of aurora was at 20N, However during the geomagnetic storm of 4th of February 1872, there was confirmed aurora at 19N and several people reported aurora as far south as 3N!!!

The furthest south the aurora has managed to get during the 20th century was 28N occuring in 1958, The only other time that the aurora got south of 30N was during the 1989 geomagnetic storm, the one famed for blowing Quebec's grid. (29N)

I'm not doubting that the 1859 event was huge, it certainly was. But there have been several sun-earth events since 1859 that (at least) come close. Remember it was on that day that solar science was really born, there was very little solar data around the world recording the carrington flare and it's after effects.

Thanks for that info George, I didn't know of Aurora getting that far south, I knew of the Quebec grid problems in 89 and always wondered whether they could happen in Europe, I assume it's less likely due to shorter lengths of power cables.

On the current level of activity on the sun, how do you see it progressing now? A few months ago, there was concern that the "Rush to the Poles" may not kick in as it usually does, but, as with many of these things, it has since gone quiet. What are your views?

[GeorgeWX]

Thanks for that info George, I didn't know of Aurora getting that far south, I knew of the Quebec grid problems in 89 and always wondered whether they could happen in Europe, I assume it's less likely due to shorter lengths of power cables.

On the current level of activity on the sun, how do you see it progressing now? A few months ago, there was concern that the "Rush to the Poles" may not kick in as it usually does, but, as with many of these things, it has since gone quiet. What are your views?

Yes a few months ago many were unsure exactly where this solar cycle was going to end up, the main worry was a possible re-run of a maunder minimum type cycle. However what we have seen over the last 9 months is highly variable activity, one minute the sunspot number is over 100, the next it's less than 20. The same pattern of up and down swings can be seen on other solar data as well, not just the ssn.

The cause of the large swings in the data is due to the lack of active regions on the sun. In short, one half of the sun is more active than the other. During one solar rotation we get to see both of the halves.

However what has happened in the last month is both 'halves' of the sun are now demonstrating a more equal level of activity, as well as an increase in activity overall. I mentioned a while back that this cycle is showing characteristics that resemble sc10 (1855-1867 ) and sc14 (1902-1913), that particular trend continues for the moment.

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number is 167. A new record high for solar cycle 24.

The large active area of magnetism that incorperates 1295 and 1296 has now rotated to a geo-effective position, This region has maintained it's size since tracking started around 2 weeks ago. In the last 48 hours, several new spots have emerged within the area and multiple C class flaring during the period as well.

I would place the possibility of earth directed CME's over the next 48 hours from the large active region (1295, 1296, 1298) at 90%+

Early on 14/9 a cme was observed from around the area of sunspot 1289, Lasco c2 and c3 show a full halo cme, It looks slow and not very dense, it will have effect on our geomagnetic field when passing but conditions are unlikely to exceed minor storm levels. Probable k4, possible k5. Arrival should be sometime in the next 12-18 hours.

Short movie from spaceweather.com showing the development of 1295, 1296 and 1298.

http://spaceweather..../sunspotevo.gif

Edited September 16, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

One day later and a new sunspot record for sc24 at 173.

This number may diminish over the next few days as several spotted regions disappear over the limb but at around the same time on the opposing limb we should see another region of volatile activity appear and the number will ramp up again.

The earthbound cme mentioned in the last post struck at around 3am initially causing unsettled conditions, rising to active levels (k4) during the course of this afternoon. At just before 4pm magnetometers detected a moderately sized sub-storm with a nT deviation of around 50, as a result of this, NOAA's most recent update on the planetery kp index (for the period 13.00-1600) is at kp6, due to the sub-storm activity (circled)

I would be (pleasently) surprised if geomagnetic storming continued into this evening, however I expect conditions to settle to k3-k4 levels over the coming hours.

[GeorgeWX]

Todays noaa sunspot number is 138 - a drop on yesterday's record high. However the SFI remains above 140.

Earth facing active regions 1295/6/8 remain volatile with plenty of C class flaring. One of the flares has caught my attention (C3.8 at 12pm). it seems there is a slow cme with a 'well directed' earth component, the source is 1295. Using Lasco c2/c3 and stereo imagery It will be another couple of hours before the exact direction of the cme can be estimated with a higher degree of accuracy.

There is still no mention of this cme on noaa's site, I expect it will be featured in the daily report at 11pm.

Edited September 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Todays sunspot number is 128, the SFI remains above 140 (for several days now).

The last 48 hour period has been active with multiple C class flaring from old sunspot 1289 (about to depart over the western limb), sunspot 1301 declaring its arrival over the eastern limb with a C6 yesterday and a C7 more recently both with CME's, earth facing sunspot group 1295/1296 itself responsible for a C6 flare with associated CME.

Amazingly NOAA mention all of the eruptions but don't believe any will be geo-effective. We will surely feel the effect from the CME related to the C6 flare of 1296, it appears faint in texture but has a definite earth directed component, Even the limb CME from 1301 has a chance of enhancing the geomagnetic field as a flank hit can't be ruled out.

Minor geomagnetic storming from these CME's should commence sometime on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Let's not forget about the CME mentioned in my last post. NOAA didn't mention it at all on the daily update, there are still no reports of it anywhere.

I believe this CME has a positive earth directed component, whilst it is not a fast moving cme and is rather faint, it will bring with it a period of minor geomagnetic storming tonight or possibly early tomorrow.

Edited September 20, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Todays sunspot number is 128, the SFI remains above 140 (for several days now).

The last 48 hour period has been active with multiple C class flaring from old sunspot 1289 (about to depart over the western limb), sunspot 1301 declaring its arrival over the eastern limb with a C6 yesterday and a C7 more recently both with CME's, earth facing sunspot group 1295/1296 itself responsible for a C6 flare with associated CME.

Amazingly NOAA mention all of the eruptions but don't believe any will be geo-effective. We will surely feel the effect from the CME related to the C6 flare of 1296, it appears faint in texture but has a definite earth directed component, Even the limb CME from 1301 has a chance of enhancing the geomagnetic field as a flank hit can't be ruled out.

Minor geomagnetic storming from these CME's should commence sometime on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Let's not forget about the CME mentioned in my last post. NOAA didn't mention it at all on the daily update, there are still no reports of it anywhere.

I believe this CME has a positive earth directed component, whilst it is not a fast moving cme and is rather faint, it will bring with it a period of minor geomagnetic storming tonight or possibly early tomorrow.

Here's an interesting illustration of the CME striking Earth on Thursday http://iswa.gsfc.nas...nim.tim-den.gif

Edited September 20, 2011 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

Todays sunspot number is 108, Today's SFI is 144... continuously remaining above 140 since the 15th of September. This holds significance as it is confirming a trend towards a higher baseline of activity. See the graph below illustrating SFI (solar flux index) and sunspot number over the last 12 months.

Solar activity has continued to remain volatile with the 'background' x-ray flux almost continuously in the C class level for the last 48 hours. Featured flares during this period include an M1, C6 and a futher 9 C class flares from sunspot group 1295. Also an ''extremely bright and wide'' X-class flare and M-class flare from newly numbered sunspot 1302, This region is emerging over the eastern limb and could be sc24's largest sunspot to date. Most of the above mentioned flares emitted cme's.

There is a high chance that some of today's flaring has earth directed material, particularly from the X flare on the limb. i'll update when it becomes clearer.

Edited September 22, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

Todays sunspot number is 108, Today's SFI is 144... continuously remaining above 140 since the 15th of September. This holds significance as it is confirming a trend towards a higher baseline of activity. See the graph below illustrating SFI (solar flux index) and sunspot number over the last 12 months.

Solar activity has continued to remain volatile with the 'background' x-ray flux almost continuously in the C class level for the last 48 hours. Featured flares during this period include an M1, C6 and a futher 9 C class flares from sunspot group 1295. Also an ''extremely bright and wide'' X-class flare and M-class flare from newly numbered sunspot 1302, This region is emerging over the eastern limb and could be sc24's largest sunspot to date. Most of the above mentioned flares emitted cme's.

There is a high chance that some of today's flaring has earth directed material, particularly from the X flare on the limb. i'll update when it becomes clearer.

According to spaceweather.com the X-class flare from 1302 was not Earth-directed but might deliver us a glancing blow.

It was pretty spectacular, though. I would attach jpgs, but have suddenly discovered that I don't appear to be able to upload images any more.

[GeorgeWX]

According to spaceweather.com the X-class flare from 1302 was not Earth-directed but might deliver us a glancing blow.

It was pretty spectacular, though. I would attach jpgs, but have suddenly discovered that I don't appear to be able to upload images any more.

Here's a couple, just check out those active filaments! They're still hanging on there, surely they will erupt tonight.

Also just had a look on solarham where there is another statistic that further demonstrates a more prolonged upswing in solar activity....

Top 10 Solar Flares of Cycle 24: (Sunspot number in brackets)

X6.9 - Aug 9, 2011 (1263)

X2.2 - Feb 15, 2011 (1158)

X2.1 - Sept 6, 2011 (1283)

X1.8 - Sept 7, 2011 (1283)

X1.5 - March 9 , 2011 (1166)

X1.4 - Sept 22, 2011 (1302)

M9.3 - Aug 4, 2011 (1261)

M9.3 - July 30, 2011 (1260)

M 8.3 - Feb 6, 2010 (1045)

M6.6 - Feb 13, 2011 (1158)

6 of the 10 flares in the past 2 months.

Edited September 22, 2011 by GeorgeWX