Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Crepuscular Ray]

Here's a couple, just check out those filaments!

Also just had a look on solarham where there is another statistic that further demonstrates a more prolonged upswing in solar activity....

Top 10 Solar Flares of Cycle 24: (Sunspot number in brackets)

X6.9 - Aug 9, 2011 (1263)

X2.2 - Feb 15, 2011 (1158)

X2.1 - Sept 6, 2011 (1283)

X1.8 - Sept 7, 2011 (1283)

X1.5 - March 9 , 2011 (1166)

X1.4 - Sept 22, 2011 (1302)

M9.3 - Aug 4, 2011 (1261)

M9.3 - July 30, 2011 (1260)

M 8.3 - Feb 6, 2010 (1045)

M6.6 - Feb 13, 2011 (1158)

6 of the 10 flares in the past 2 months.

Compared to the last few years, this looks fairly spectacular, even though it's not going to have massive effects here.

Ah, worked out how to do it now... I think.

From NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

[GeorgeWX]

I must be honest in saying that sunspot 1302 has some serious potential for powerful flares and earth directed cme's during the next 4 days, more so than any other active region I've seen so far in this solar cycle. Exciting stuff!!!

Today's (24/09/11) solar flux is a sc24 record breaker coming in at 158, also sunspot 1302 looks a strong contender for sc24's largest sunspot to date. I recall 1263 was a big 'un but maybe not as big as 1302, I'll hunt out some numbers to settle it.

Today's solar activity was higher than yesterday's. The background x-ray flux is approaching C2 level. This morning at around 6am there was a powerful flare coming from 1302, most likely upper M-class or possibly low X-class. We can't be sure as the satellite's responsible for recording the x-ray flux are in eclipse season, and missed the event. Also this evening at around 11pm was an M1 flare from 1302.

Below I've added an image from lasco C2 of the X class flare cme from Sept 22.

Edited September 23, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

With solar activity at very high levels I thought an afternoon update would be appropriate.

Monster sunspot 1302 is putting on quite a show with the M1.6 flare (mentioned in the last post) soon after 11pm last night, there is a cme related to this flare. Most of the material will sail wide but it looks like the edge will brush past earth sometime on Monday. Also an X1.9 flare this morning, again a cme looks to have lifted and again a flank hit looks more probable than a miss, What is most striking about this event is the projected speed of 2300km/s. This is likely to be the fastest of this solar cycle.

Most recently however is a M7.1 flare that is still in progress. Initial signs are that this could be more intersting than the X1 flare this morning, x-ray flux shows a LDE (long duration event) making it very likely there is a bright and dense cme, much like the spectacular X1.4 flare on the 22 Sept. Sunspot 1302 is at an equitorial location and has now passed 60E. It is now entering the optimum position for earth directed activity.

Also I looked at the largest sunspots of sc24 and it does indeed look like 1302 is the largest to date covering an area of 840 millionths.

Edited September 24, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

The CME related to the very recent M7 flare is very bright and very wide. It does have an earth directed component.

Coupling this event with other recent events, I would forecast the geomagnetic field to pass active levels (k4) on 25/09 with spells of minor storming (k5-k6). Into 26/09 minor storming will become more regular and persistant with a higher potential for major storming (k7) later in the day and into 27/09.

There will be aurora viewing opportunities in the coming days.

Edited September 24, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Last time I can update until tomorrow morning.

Solar activity is high.

Since the M7 flare early this afternoon, the x-ray flux has barely entered C-class territory. 1302 is highly volatile with at least 3 further M class flares since the M7. Looking at the stereo beacon data there appears to be further cme activity as a result of the latter M class flaring. The longer that 1302 can sustain such a high level of activity the more likely that we will see severe geomagnetic storming on Monday/Tuesday.

[GeorgeWX]

Todays offical solar flux reading is 190, this is a flare induced number and a figure around 170 is a closer estimate. Still whatever the number is it's another record high for solar cycle 24.

Here's a Lasco c2/c3 movie showing the rise in solar activity from 19/09 to 24-09, right up to (but not including) the LDE M7 flare from yesterday afternoon. Note the speed (2300km/s) and trajectory of the cme related to the X1 flare at 0:15.

Solar activity remains very high, since the M7 flare yesterday afternoon there have been a further 10 M class flares, 8 of which from 1302. Looking at the stereo beacon data there are several 'overnight' cme's. Of partcular interest is the M7 flare at around 4am coming from 1302, this M7 flare is clearly trying to outdo it's predessesor, there is a significant cme and is likely to be partially earth directed. Unfortunately nasa are not publishing the lasco imagery this morning, this sometimes happens during large flares/cme's, why exactly I don't know.

If 1302 manages to keep up it's impressive performance then the possibility of severe geomagnetic storming (k8-9) rises when recurring cme effects batter our little blue ball. Not once in over 5 years have I anticipated nor witnessed a geo-storm at k9 levels, but I anticipate the moment of anticipating such an event very soon (I even confused myself there).

Below is today's sun at 1011am. 1302 is positioned... well you can see it right there, also note a new sunspot appearing over the limb, it looks small compared to 1302 but is of a moderate size. Click to zoom.

Edited September 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Land based magnetometers have detected the arrival of a cme. Slow in speed at around 400km/s with a moderate strength. This event alone will not cause geomagnetic storming of any notable magnitude, but it does start the ball rolling for what should be a brilliant week for aurora hunters.

What I expect to happen into tonight and tomorrow morning is the arrival of two more cme's, each one distressing the geomagnetic field further. My previous forecast stands, in fact last night's noaa forecast broadly agrees with mine. But with all these cme's piling through one after the other, the faster clouds collecting the stragglers en-route, There will be potential for persistant minor geomagnetic storming with numerous bursts of severe geomagnetic storming tomorrow and into Tuesday.

With nasa still not releasing today's lasco imagery I'm unable to review any of the recent cme activity. If any of the overnight cme's are earth directed, the geomagnetic field will not get the chance to settle on Wednesday.

Edited September 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Still hardly any lasco images released, however there is this movie showing cme activity in the last 24 hours from nasa's stereo A. (earth is to the left of the sun).

There are several earth directed cme's coming from this morning's flares.

Edited September 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Today's (26/09) solar flux comes in at around 169. This afternoon's flare activity includes a C5, M3 and a M2 from sunspot 1302. Stereo imagery shows cme activity relating to both of the M class flares.

Sunspot 1302 managed to grow to an area covering 1300 millionths of the sun when measured 24 hours ago, the most recent measurement at 1.30am shows the (still massive) sunspot covers 980 millionths. Despite the shrinkage there is still an incredible amount of polarity mixing ongoing. The likelyhood of this region producing more M-X class flares in the next 24 hours is near enough 100%. The region also has the potential for severe flaring (X5+).

Sunspot 1302 is approaching 30E on the solar surface, any cme activity over the next 2-3 days is highly likely to sweep past earth.

Nasa's lasco images (up to 15.30) have been released, I can finally get a look at the recent cme activity, Sunspot 1303 positioned near the SW limb put in an appearance with 2 M class flares both with bright cme's one right after the other. Neither will be geo-effective due to the position of the active region.

Of all the eruptions from 12pm 24/09 to 12pm 25/09 there are three cme's each with a good trajectory that incorporates earth, all have come from 1302. There were several other flares from different regions of the sun during the period but I believe none of them will be geo-effective.

The sun at 1.41am

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Super Sun Blast Fears Put Russian Nuke Plants In Lockdown

http://www.eutimes.net/2011/09/super-sun-blast-fears-put-russian-nuke-plants-in-lockdown/

[GeorgeWX]

As previously mentioned we definitely have 3 cme's en route, the first is faster than the latter two and is related to Saturday's fast M-flare. It is 'possible' that the first cme has just passed ace, meaning arrival at earth is imminent. I don't expect the SSC (sudden storm commencement) to be anything like the one we felt during the recent geomagnetic storm where the planetery kp passed 8. What looks more probable based on the incoming ace data is a transition towards geomagnetic storming.

The cme's released during yesterday afternoon's M-class flares (around an hour apart) are taking an interesting route. It could be the case that 1302's neighbour, sunspot 1305 could be the culprit for these. The edges of the faint cme's released during the flares may brush past earth around Wednesday night, but is of little interest overall.

Moving on to the flare activity from 6pm 25/09 to 6am 26/09 we have three events, a C5, C9.5 and a M4. The latter of the three flares looks very interesting indeed occuring at around 5am. Stereo beacon shows a massive cme lifting, the source is 1302. X-ray flux shows a LDE lasting around three hours. Once again nasa are holding back the lasco imagery relating to this cme. Of all the data I can gather at the moment, it looks like a direct hit is likely. Just how dense the billowing cloud really is, I still don't know and look forward to seeing the Lasco imagery.

Also worth a mention is the proton flux which has been rising since the X1 flare several days ago continues to rise, and could pass the S2 threshold in the coming 12-24 hours.

Before I have even completed the post the game has changed a little, I said no SSC from the cme about to pass earth.... Because there was a gradual increase in wind speed/density and magnetic field.

Well it's a precurser to what looks like a whopper!!!!! Ace has in the last 60 seconds detected a huge rise in magnetic field and a SSC is likely now. I'll keep a little eye on the graph over the next 10 minutes to get a grasp of the speed and density.

Land based magnetometers will spike to some degree in around 50 minutes from now. Geomagnetic storming will commence.

ace 6h data

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Ok so only around 20 minutes have passed since ace detected the huge rise in it's measurements.

Wind speed 500km/h still rising slowly (this is a reliable measurement)

Wind density circa 35 protons cm/3 (this is unreliable data, normally undercooks by up to 80%)

Total magnetic field circa 30nT (again ace is unreliable with this measurement, typically an extra 20-50% should be added for a closer estimate)

Based on this tiny snippet of data, the cme passage that is about to start is large. The SSC should be large too. We need the Bz measurement of the magnetic field (red line) to be at zero or lower in order to feel the full potential of the incoming cme. As the cme hit ace, the Bz tilted south well below the zero measurement (which is a good initial sign) but remains to bounce around a lot.

If the Bz can sustain periods of zero or lower then major geomagnetic storming is likely (kp7). ace data

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Time for a comparison, I'll put the SSC that has just happened alongside the SSC from the largest geomagnetic storm of sc24.

The SSC from the August 5th storm was about 2.5 times stronger than the one that has just passed.

It's nothing more than an observation, and not a sign that it will be a lesser storm than the Aug 5th event. The bz tilting negatively has far more influence in a geomagnetic storm than any SSC has.

The next 3 hour planetery kp reading should be at least kp4, but it looks like there could be enough storming for a kp6. The next kp measurement will be at 4pm.

The most recent glance at the ace data shows a huge southward spike in the bz, right down past -30. The more that happens the better.

I'll pop back in when the sun comes down, hopefully this will develop into a strong and durable storm with a decent chance to spot the aurora.

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Just had a quick look at the ace data, things are looking very promising for uk auroral activity, wind speed up to 650km/h and an increasingly powerful magnetic field. The bz tilted sharply south at 1750 uk time, and remains there. Exactly what we need for strong geomagnetic storming. Remember that ace is around 50 minutes upwind, so what should commence very soon is a collapse of the nT measurement on land based magnetometers and the geomagnetic storm will intensify, the aurora will travel south.

In terms of the 3 hour planetery kp level, I anticipate recordings of kp8 into this evening. It looks like another uk wide aurora viewing opportunity is on the cards.

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[kar999]

... and typically low cloud and mist forecast for me overnight. Maybe some breaks in the cloud if I'm lucky!

Good luck folks... and for the doomongers out there... no... the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse won't be out riding tonight.... sorry to pish on your bonfire..

Edited September 26, 2011 by kar999

[lfcdude]

Just had a quick look at the ace data, things are looking very promising for uk auroral activity, wind speed up to 650km/h and an increasingly powerful magnetic field. The bz tilted sharply south at 1750 uk time, and remains there. Exactly what we need for strong geomagnetic storming. Remember that ace is around 50 minutes upwind, so what should commence very soon is a collapse of the nT measurement on land based magnetometers and the geomagnetic storm will intensify, the aurora will travel south.

In terms of the 3 hour planetery kp level, I anticipate recordings of kp8 into this evening. It looks like another uk wide aurora viewing opportunity is on the cards.

Uk wide? what about down south?

[Mountain Snow]

Sounds great! what time do you think it will peak? Will have to go for a wander up the road, theres a big bank of trees blocking my view north.

[Matty M]

Its gone off the charts

Kp above 9

to the bunkers!!!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Still well to the north.

For those who want to check out for themselves:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/

[GeorgeWX]

Uk wide? what about down south?

Yes, provided you're not under cloud and as far away from light pollution as possible. Also the optimum time for viewing the aurora is between 10pm and 3am. If the bz measurement on ace maintains negative values, then strong geomagnetic storming will persist,

Sounds great! what time do you think it will peak? Will have to go for a wander up the road, theres a big bank of trees blocking my view north.

Lake district? Definitely, go out and have a look in the coming hours, before that huge bank of cloud covers us from the west. Unfortunately I'm already under it here in Ayrshire as a result the potential for catching a look tonight are not good.

Its gone off the charts

Kp above 9

to the bunkers!!!

The maximum kp value possible is 9, are you looking at the activity level on the auroral oval map?

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Still well to the north.

For those who want to check out for themselves:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/

The oval map is unreliable and out-dated, visually appealing however.

The best way to follow this storm is by watching the total magnetic field and related bz component on the ace satellite, giving you 50 minutes advanced notice, then use land based magnetometers for solid data, the more that the black line deviates downward from the blue line, the further south aurora will go. Anything past a 100nT drop and aurora may be visible in south UK, anything past 50nT drop aurora more likely to be visible from 53N and northwards.

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Mountain Snow]

Clouded over here now, not going to see much tonight.

Any chance of viewing aurora over this coming week? Perfect weather conditions with high pressure in charge.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Any chance of reposting links to those for those who haven't already found them George? Thanks.

Sadly, not a feline in the underworld's chance here tonight to spot anything. It's completely clouded out. Bah.

Clouded over here now, not going to see much tonight.

Any chance of viewing aurora over this coming week? Perfect weather conditions with high pressure in charge.

Not really predictable more than a few hours in advance, if that. Watch out for posts from George!

[GeorgeWX]

Clouded over here now, not going to see much tonight.

Any chance of viewing aurora over this coming week? Perfect weather conditions with high pressure in charge.

Yes there is a significant earthbound cme from another M class flare, it will arrive late tomorrow or early Wednesday, and there is further cme activity today I've still to look at, there may be more opportunities on Wednesday and Thursday night from any of today's cme activity.

Any chance of reposting links to those for those who haven't already found them George? Thanks.

The post at the top of the page has the link's you are referring to.

Edited September 26, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[lfcdude]

Anyways power iffy? my power just gone of and on twice and people on facebook our saying the same about there leccy