Day 10 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Currently In Decatur (Tx) about a 225 mile jaunt down to our Initial Target of San Angelo for tomorrow

From the SPC

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN...CNTRL

AND SCNTRL TX...

...SRN PLAINS...

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO WILL FINALLY

EJECT EWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL

LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND

LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND

NEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE AFTN. MOST OF THIS

AREA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE PAST

COUPLE OF DAYS AND ONLY ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH

THESE STORMS.

A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST

FROM THE BIG BEND AND WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION SEWD INTO NRN

COAHUILA WEDNESDAY AFTN. HERE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY

RECOVER FROM NOCTURNAL MCS/S AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SELY AND

MAINTAINS FAVORABLE MOISTURE. DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO

MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT

ASSOCD WITH THE TROUGH SPREAD EWD. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP

FROM THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS INTO THE WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY

AFTN...THEN GROW UPSCALE AS THEY HEAD ESEWD DURING THE EVENING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS

AT H5 ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...BOOSTING BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT

FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR

MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND THREATS INCREASING ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL-ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SRN END OF THIS MCS MAY

MAINTAIN STRONGEST INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE

OCCIDENTAL AND MOVES TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VLY. THOUGH INCREASING

WLY FLOW WOULD ARGUE FOR A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SVR SYSTEM TO MOVE

ACROSS SCNTRL TX...ERN EXTENT OF THE SVR SHOULD BE MODULATED BY

INCREASING CAP AND LWR THETA-E VALUES IN THE LWR TERRAIN.

Paul Sherman

[BrickFielder]

Yes I think that is a good area to be.

Radar forecast

[pottyprof]

Here's the teams current location and today's target

Current satellite

[mettalfabrik]

tornado warning for ozona tx

Severe Weather Statement

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

316 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXC105-092030-

/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070509T2030Z/

CROCKETT TX-

316 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR EAST

CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY...

AT 311 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

OZONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

I-10 NEAR THE CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE BY 330 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

LAT...LON 3076 10139 3053 10128 3063 10096 3103 10097

LAST 6H METAR FROM SONARA.. NEAREST CITY

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ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 20:25:00

Temperature : 23.0°C

Dew Point : 16.0°C

RH : 65%

Wind : SE (140 degrees) at 19 km/h, 30 km/h gusts

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1014.6 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 2100m, Scattered clouds at 2400m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 20:05:00

Temperature : 23.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 73%

Wind : SSE (150 degrees) at 19 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1014.9 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 910m, Scattered clouds at 2100m, Broken clouds at 2400m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 19:45:00

Temperature : 23.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 73%

Wind : SSE (160 degrees) at 13 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1016.6 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 850m, Scattered clouds at 1400m, Broken clouds at 2000m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 19:25:00

Temperature : 21.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 83%

Wind : NNE (20 degrees) at 9 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1016.9 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 760m, Scattered clouds at 1500m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 19:05:00

Temperature : 20.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 88%

Wind : N (10 degrees) at 7 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1017.6 mb

Sky Condition : Broken clouds at 760m, Broken clouds at 1400m, Broken clouds at 2000m

Weather : Thunderstorm In Vicinity

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 18:45:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : NE (40 degrees) at 6 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1017.9 mb

Sky Condition : Broken clouds at 760m, Broken clouds at 2300m

Weather : Rain with Thunderstorm

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 18:25:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : NNW (340 degrees) at 7 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1018.6 mb

Sky Condition : Broken clouds at 700m, Overcast at 850m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 18:05:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : NNW (330 degrees) at 9 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1018.6 mb

Sky Condition : Broken clouds at 700m, Broken clouds at 3000m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 17:45:00

Temperature : 20.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 83%

Wind : NW (310 degrees) at 6 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 3000m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 17:25:00

Temperature : 20.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 83%

Wind : Calm

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Clear below 3700m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 17:05:00

Temperature : 20.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 83%

Wind : SSE (150 degrees) at 6 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 2900m, Few clouds at 3400m

Weather : Thunderstorm In Vicinity

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 16:45:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 88%

Wind : S (180 degrees) at 6 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 180m, Scattered clouds at 1200m, Broken clouds at 2700m

Weather : Thunderstorm In Vicinity

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 16:25:00

Temperature : 20.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 83%

Wind : S (170 degrees) at 13 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1018.6 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 580m, Scattered clouds at 1300m, Broken clouds at 3400m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 16:05:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 88%

Wind : SW (220 degrees) at 13 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 580m, Broken clouds at 3400m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 15:45:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 17.0°C

RH : 88%

Wind : SSW (200 degrees) at 19 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1018.6 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 3400m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 15:25:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : SSW (210 degrees) at 17 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1018.3 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 520m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 15:05:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : SSW (210 degrees) at 24 km/h, 33 km/h gusts

Visibility : 14000m

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 430m, Scattered clouds at 580m

Weather :

Remarks :

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : KSOA

Station Name : Sonora

Location : 30-35N 100-39W

Time : 09/05/2007 14:45:00

Temperature : 19.0°C

Dew Point : 18.0°C

RH : 94%

Wind : S (170 degrees) at 11 km/h

Visibility : 16000m

Pressure : 1017.6 mb

Sky Condition : Clear below 3700m

Weather :

Remarks : Lightning Observed

==================================================

[pottyprof]

There's a nice squall line running through Texas at the moment

There's also a tornado vortex signature showing on the San Angelo doppler (purple triangle) heading towards Menard.

[pottyprof]

The team are currently heading south from Holliday along the squall line. Apparently they have some more fantastic pictures for us to drool over..

[Nick F]

Well, we ended up SW of Witchita Falls today, not as far SW as originally planned, and we waited for some storms to move up from the SSW along a slow moving cold front over Lake Kickapoo (great name) which was a great location to look South and see a line of storms approach over the water. Great cloud stuctures seen with a good shelf cloud developing - expect some good photos soon, cells didn't get supercellular with rotation in the end, so we took some photos then left the storms West of Witchita Falls then headed East to Ardmore, OK, where we are staying the night. Some weakish storms passing North just to the West of us tonight, not particularly electrically active.

One of the highlights today, apart from some good storm structure photos, was seeing a tarantula walking across a track we had parked on, made us jump at first, then we got fascinated and took photos of it. It was only a small one aswell!

Tomorrow there's a SLGT risk over Sern TX, but it will be too far (around 400 miles) for us to bother going to, particularly as we need to be back in DFW area on friday for the 5pm flight home. However, still the chance of some scattered t-storms over much of TX and OK tomorrow, so may see something.

[stevestorms]

Hey Nick, have a good day and a good flight home, looks like you guys have had a great 07 tour which should bring a warm smile when you reflect back on the last week.

cheers, Steve James Pete Tom Martin Andy