Other May intrests

[kold weather]

Hi everyone, well now Andrea is gone we have to start to watch for the possiblity of other storms developing, while we are still pre-season right now the chance sof getting tropicalsystems increase quite a lot fromow on till August/September. Given we've already had one pre-season system develop its not likely there will be another before June but its possible and so we do have to watch, esp the Caribbean...

Talking about the Caribbean the GFS and a couple of other models are suggesting a weak low developing from a tropical wave that is currently in the Caribbean sea near Jamaica (IR shows some fairly deep convection near the island, though bar that theres not much) the models go on to slightly strengthen the wave and give it a closed circulation. Wher eits progged is classic place for systems to develop however the phase charts do seem to suggest that overlal it wil be cold-cored and weak with a upper low present nearby it would likely be sheared as well. So while a low forms it doesn't appear liekly right now that a system will form from it, however as I said its in a good place for May/June systems to devlop and certainly had we been in July it would have needed extreme watching. Even IF something does form from it I have my doubts that it'd be anything of real note, tohugh thats just IMO.

[kold weather]

Models continue to suggest a weak barolinic system to form in the Caribbean and head NE out to sea in the same general direction as Andrea went but it doesn't look like becoming tropical right now and is very heavily sheared indeed so development isn't likely.

Models also continue to suggest the development of another closed cirulation deep in the Caribbean sea close to Costa Rica but long way off, bot hthe UKMo and GFS do develop weak lows down there. Given its location in an area of really impressive heat content for the time of year if such a low were to form I'd be suprised if it wasn't tropical in nature, SSt's are high enough and eat content is likely close to record levels. ECM 0z run didn't go for it but previous runs seemingly developed a hurricane down there. However despite looking mildy intresting presently a subtropical jet is screaming across the caribbean area and the models are well known to over do barotropic systems with them often not forming or weaker then progged.

Edit- Also one other thing i forgot to mention, there is a weak area of low pressure near the Bahamas, convection is firing fairly strongly but shear does look still pretty strong as it is in the Caribbean though breifly the jet is easing off in that region, it won't have enough time to develop into anything, nor will it be strong enough either despite some fairly decent convection present pressures in the area don't show up anything of real note yet...and the models only develop a weak system then send it NE as a fusion between this and the Caribbean system. IF it can keep up the sort of convection its got though it may become more intresting as that would help to decrease the pressure further, but the issue is shear does appear likely to be a little overwhelming, despite it coming down alot from yesterday its still at 20-25kts, really too high for sustained development and it'll only increase again.

Edited May 17, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Not much to update on right now so I'll keep it brief.

Disorganized moderately deep convection in the SW of the Caribbean which is a little interesting and is 1009 low but convection clearly being sheared very hard indeed with a strong jet streak still smashing its way over the Caribbean with the area in question having 20-30kts of shear over its top.

However models are progging a weak low to head N/NNE, though whether or not it develops is another matter completely but all models show the convective mass to head NNE toward W.Cuba and eventually Florida. Shear is decreasing in the area and also the weak low is in an area that you would normally consider to be a good place for storms t develop at this time of year, both Alberto and Arlene have formed from the same area as this system right now and the heat content is way above average as well in that region with a small patch of SSt's at 29C, very impressive for May!

May need watching though still early days and early in the season, had it been another month down the line then I think we'd need to watch it extremely carefully.

[kold weather]

Amazingly enough that are of disorganized convection I mentioned on the 19th is still here in disorganized form!!!

Not much to talk about in regards to it right now, but overnight there has been an impressive flare-up of convection in the Yucatan channel. doesn't appear to be any circulation with this but its a decent convective mass right with a upper trough nearby drawing up the moisture for the convection. Its not much of a threat right now until it can develop some sort of circulation, if it does then the convection is more then deep enough for it to be taken noticed off, esp its position as well given the models track it into the Gulf of Mexico and the GFS does develop it into a closed circulation, in other words a tropical entity. The model phase charts suggest that if it does form it will be likely subtropical in nature, probably due to the upper trough that is nearby and the shear that is present still---which is still blowing the convection quite strongly off to the SE looking at the visables.

Still its something to watch and it has a small chance i suppose, though it is just a small chance right now given the lack of organization present with it, if it gains a closed circulation despite of the shear, then things become a little more interesting.