Tropical cyclone Perrie (Australia)

[Supercell Hunters]

IDQ20071

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0656 UTC 17/05/2007

Tropical Cyclone: Pierre

Data At: 0600 UTC

Latitude: 10.6S

Longitude: 156.3E

Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)

Movement Towards: west (260 deg)

Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) central pressure: 994 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:

Radius of 64-knot winds:

Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24hrs

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)

Storm Depth: Medium

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa

+12: 17/1800: 10.9S 155.2E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 990

+24: 18/0600: 11.3S 154.0E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 985

+36: 18/1800: 11.7S 153.2E: 075 (140): 060 (110): 980

+48: 19/0600: 11.8S 152.5E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 980

REMARKS: Dvorak DT based on tight curved band wrap of 0.5 giving T2.5, CI held

at 3.0. Robust low level centre remains, although organisation of deep

convection has decreased slightly in the past 6 hours, consistent with the

diurnal trend. System remains in a relatively favourable environment for

development, with weak shear and good outflow to the north and south.

Notes:

This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are

usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:

WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)

CST add 9 hrs 30 min

EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1300 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

A 120 NM RADIUS OF 11.0S 156.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-

CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A

CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 156.1E. THE SYSTEM IS

MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S

157.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 245NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED OVER THE

CENTER AND HAS REMAINED SPORADIC IN NATURE. DESPITE THIS

FACT, THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOP-

MENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE

PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO

THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

180200Z.//

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE PIERRE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1S 157.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.05.2007 11.1S 157.2E WEAK

12UTC 17.05.2007 11.6S 155.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.05.2007 11.1S 154.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.05.2007 11.5S 153.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.05.2007 11.9S 152.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.05.2007 12.2S 152.1E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.05.2007 12.5S 150.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.05.2007 12.6S 148.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.05.2007 12.5S 147.0E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.05.2007 11.8S 145.0E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.05.2007 11.4S 143.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.05.2007 11.0S 141.1E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.05.2007 10.8S 138.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

This is the most later cyclone ever for Australia on record!! Cyclone for Australia never happened after 15th May on records! I believe this one going to influence the development of La Nina this year and also create drought breaking rains. Lets our hopes up for this solid rains from this cyclone. But theres massive interior NW cloud band is now over Australia.

[Somerset Squall]

Very interesting. Another record broken! Have there being storms in May before before the 15th?

[Supercell Hunters]

Like under 10 storms in 25 years lol!

Perrie now seems going incredible!!! *shocks*