Typhoon Pabuk

[Somerset Squall]

Well it's not a typhoon yet but is forcast to be one very soon. For a change, it looks like this storm is not heading towards Japan, it looks like making a beeline for Taiwan. Strengthening is anticipated over the coming days and the storm may reach Super Typhoon strength before making landfall in Taiwan- but latest estimates are going for Cat 3 on the saffir-simpson scale. However, it is early days and the storm still may not make landfall in Taiwan, the system will have to be watched over the coming days.

Link to JMA forecast for Pabuk: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0706.html

It's also worth noting Tropical Depression 06W meandering up the coastline of Vietnam, could provide some very heavy rains over the coming days.

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm PABUK is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

still 72 hours out

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm PABUK is strengthening at a slower pace than originally anticipated, and no longer looks lkike being anywhere as near as powerful as YUTU, MAN-YI and USAGI. The reason for slower strengthening is probably poor outflow due to the mass of convection to the south over the Phillipines. As there is poor outflow Pabuk is struggling with dry air from the north being trapped in the system.

This satellite wind image shows the problem:

Here's a link to the sattelite images: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

However, the latest discussion still calls for Pabuk to become a typhoon...

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PABUK (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

700 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 6 2007

...TROPICAL STORM PABUK CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABUK WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.3 DEGREES

EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN.

TROPICAL STORM PABUK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH

A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PABUK IS EXPECTED

TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON

TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE

CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 21.6 DEGREES NORTH

AND LONGITUDE 129.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH

WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

Still forecasted to make landfall in Taiwan, but not as strong as originally forecasted. Things could change though if outflow improves so this system still needs to be watched.

[Cookie]

thanks for the image mate

according to trs is expected to hit in next 24hrs

[Somerset Squall]

PABUK has now become a 65kt, category 1 on the saffir-simpson scale, typhoon. Pabuk is not expected to strengthen any more before landfall, which is scheduled to occur in the next 12 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Pabuk is now weakening and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression in the next 12-24 hours before making landfall near Hong Kong, where it should dissapate.

[Cookie]

has it caused much damage

[Somerset Squall]

has it caused much damage

Most of the damage has been to agricultural land with ruined crops- $200,000 worth according to this site: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/asiapac...f_Typhoon_Pabuk

I think there have been only a few deaths, the article above says none but they do vary. However, it wasn't a major disaster with the greatest losses being crops which could cause a few problems- but this storm was a shadow of USAGI and MAN-YI which were much more devestating. More damage reports should be coming out in the the next few days but at the moment Taiwan seems to have got off fairly lightly.

[Cookie]

thats gud to hear