Where has the winter cold gone?

[J10]

I have updated the charts to make them easier to see against the background, but all 3 charts really give the same message.

gain thanks to Mr Data for supplying the information and to Stratos for giving a few tips.

[acbrixton]

cet_0c_table_071007.doc

In addition to remarks above...

1. Exceptionally prolonged severe cold (i.e. 40+days p.a.) has always been very rare (only 6 winters).

2. Very mild winters (i.e. 5 or less days) were quite common in the 20th c (approx 3.9 per decade), relatively unusual in the late 19th c (approx 2.4 per decade) and rare in the early 19th c/18th c (approx 1.4 per decade).

3. Prolonged severe cold (i.e. 20+ days p.a.) was rare in the 20th c (1.0 per decade) but rather more common in the late 19th c (approx 2.8 per decade) and especially the early 19th c/18th c (approx 3.9).

4. Playing about with the data and taking 1978-1987 the anomolous cold is even more striking: the average days per winter of 15.4 is the highest since 1887-1896 and is not exceeded again until 1837-1846, whilst the number of very mild winters (5 or less days) at 1 was only matched in 1887-1896 and exceeded in only 3 decades ( 1837-1846, 1807-1816 and 1797-1806).

regards

ACB

[disco-barry]

I think our problem is we worry too much nowadays....I love the cold as much as a lot do on here however i don't believe we should always look into things too deeply i just think the earth is warming up as it always has done and at a guess it will cool down in the future, natural cycle.

[snowsure]

I have updated the charts to make them easier to see against the background, but all 3 charts really give the same message.

gain thanks to Mr Data for supplying the information and to Stratos for giving a few tips.

Do a "Life on Mars" type experiment if you can; Ignore the post 1989 data. Do a line of best fit based on the results up to 1989. See how it changes. The line cannot be extrapolated to accuratley predict the 1990-2006 data.

Now stand at 1980. Based on what went before I would be very suprised by some of the "future" results of 1980 to 1990. I would also draw comparisons between 1910-1925 and 1990-2005. i.e. they both have a huge absence of ice days.

[J10]

Do a "Life on Mars" type experiment if you can; Ignore the post 1989 data. Do a line of best fit based on the results up to 1989. See how it changes. The line cannot be extrapolated to accuratley predict the 1990-2006 data.

Now stand at 1980. Based on what went before I would be very suprised by some of the "future" results of 1980 to 1990. I would also draw comparisons between 1910-1925 and 1990-2005. i.e. they both have a huge absence of ice days.

Done, certainly the gradient is steeper with the current figures but that is to be expected.

[Stratos Ferric]

Do a "Life on Mars" type experiment if you can; Ignore the post 1989 data. Do a line of best fit based on the results up to 1989. See how it changes. The line cannot be extrapolated to accuratley predict the 1990-2006 data.

Now stand at 1980. Based on what went before I would be very suprised by some of the "future" results of 1980 to 1990. I would also draw comparisons between 1910-1925 and 1990-2005. i.e. they both have a huge absence of ice days.

It's a good challenge, though on the assumption that it is founded on a hypothesis that we CAN still get sustained cold I offer the following.

You are quite right to posit that extrapolation from either the 60s, 70s or 80s would have led us far astray from what followed immediately; that said, it partly hinges on what time series is used. A big extrapolation based on a short analysis is always going to be flawed, even though the gambling industry relies on it for core trade. In other threads recently we have been discussing whether the current cool interval is the beginning of a reversal, or a blip. The simple fact, as ACB says higher up, and I have said elsewhere, is that the relevance of current data can only be properly framed sometime downstream, UNLESS there is other strong corroboration. For example, if I suddenly saw a fall off in a particular communicable disease (e.g. measels), that traditionally pulsed (as many diseases do) - then seeing a sudden drop might JUST be seen as continuation of inherent sinuosity - UNLESS I had also just undertaken a large programme of innoculation.

So, taking your (inferred) challenge, can we read anything into the present. Well, I'm going to say yes, for two reasons. FIrstly, the current warming is unique in the CET record in that it is year round. In the 20s the warming was winter only (even then, a detailed view of the data shows that there were still winter months that would, by today's standards, seem rather cold indeed). Secondly, those previous instances of warming were not supported so widely around the globe.

My hypothesis, like it or not, is that the warming we have now is much more fundamental (let's call it, say 'global' to coin a phrase - it might catch on), and that therefore within reason and with the normal caveats, it can be extrapolated.

Good discussion and builds in the thread by the way, and precisely what I had hoped for when suggesting these partitions.

[snowsure]

Done, certainly the gradient is steeper with the current figures but that is to be expected.

Thanks JACKONE for your dealing with this. I certainly take your point that the slope is steeper with the 1770-2006 data due to the decrease in the number of <0*c days. Interesting to note that the regression co-efficient (r^2) has improved from 0.062 to 0.100. However, if r^2<0.5 I think that we are still talking about random data. Perhaps there is a better regression study that could be done on this data? However I do not have the expertise to confirm this.

Once again, Thanks for answering my "request."

SS

[Chris Knight]

Very interesting Thread. The analysis has been fascinating. The outliers in terms of cold winter spells ring true in my memory, the neutral winters are all there too.

However, I am suspicious of straight lines. They rarely occur in nature, weather or climate trends.

[Weather-history]

Here is the list I did on UkWeatherworld last year of those periods that contained at least 5 consecutive days of a CET daily mean of at least 0C or less.

The CET average for that period is given

16th-20th Jan 2001: -0.78

31st Dec 1996- 4th Jan 1997: -1.66

25th-29th Jan 1996: -1.26

25th Dec-30th Dec 1995: -2.45

3rd-14th Feb 1991: -1.9

8th-19th Jan 1987: -3.0

20th-27th Feb 1986: -2.31

6th-18th Feb 1986: -1.51

9th-19th Feb 1985: -2.72

12th-18th Jan 1985: -2.31

6th-15th Jan 1982: -4.03

22nd-26th Dec 1981: -1.28

16th-20th Dec 1981: -2.62

8th-14th Dec 1981: -3.51

14th-18th Feb 1979: -1.8

21st-28th Jan 1979: -1.72

31st Dec 1978-6th Jan 1979: -2.91

27th Nov-1st Dec 1978: -0.6

9th-13th Feb 1978: -1.7

30th Jan-3rd Feb 1976: -0.72

31st Dec 1970- 5th Jan 1971: -1.92

11th-16th Feb 1970: -0.9

4th-8th Jan 1970: -2.28

13th-19th Feb 1969: -1.71

8th-12th Jan 1968: -1.6

19th-24th Dec 1963: -1.35

16th-20th Feb 1963: -0.74

1st-7th Feb 1963: -2.06

7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56

23rd Dec 1962-3rd Jan 1963: -2.37

2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08

23rd-29th Dec 1961: -2.01

21st-25th Jan 1958: -1.86

14th-26th Feb 1956: -1.71

31st Jan-4th Feb 1956: -4.08

17th-28th Feb 1955: -1.825

26th Jan-7th Feb 1954: -2.49

1st-8th March 1947: -1.64

5th-26th Feb 1947: -2.46

24th Jan-2nd Feb 1947: -2.08

15th-22nd Jan 1946: -1.51

20th-29th Jan 1945: -3.52

25th-29th Dec 1944: -1.32

16th-23rd Feb 1942: -1.5

14th-22nd Jan 1942: -2.52

15th-19th Jan 1941: -2.04

2nd-6th January 1941: -2.58

10th-19th Feb 1940: -1.84

10th-24th Jan 1940: -3.49

18th-22nd Dec 1938: -2.34

18th-24th Dec 1935: -1.96

22nd-27th Jan 1933: -1.65

26th Feb-2nd Mar 1929: -1.76

11th-19th Feb 1929: -4.61

16th Dec-20th 1927: -2.86

13th-18th Jan 1926: -2.4

12th-16th Dec 1920: -1.66

8th-13th Feb 1919: -1.78

1st-11th Feb 1917: -2.92

21st-30th Jan 1917: -1.27

1st-6th Feb 1909: -1.57

27th-31st Dec 1908: -3.12

26th-30th Dec 1906: -1.5

20th-25th Dec 1904: -1.53

23rd-27th Nov 1904: -1.96

12th-17th Jan 1903: -1.88

4th-8th Dec 1902: -1.9

10th-14th Feb 1902: -2.26

5th-9th Jan 1901: -0.64

7th-13th Feb 1900: -2.11

9th-17th Feb 1899: -1.53

5th-18th Feb 1895: -4.81

26th Jan -1st Feb 1895: -2.97

9th-13th Jan 1895: -2.16

3rd-8th Jan 1894: -4.4

24th Dec 1892-7th Jan 1893: -3.31

16th Feb-20th Feb 1892: -2.82

8th-16th Jan 1892: -1.64

20th-25th Dec 1891: -3.67

5th-11th Jan 1891: -2.04

28th Dec 1890-2nd Jan 1891: -1.32

9th-26th Dec 1890: -2.14

22nd-26th Feb 1888: -1.08

8th-27th Jan 1881: -4.38

18th-29th Jan 1880: -2.07

30th Nov-8th Dec 1879: -3.37

28th Jan -1st Feb 1879: -0.64

2nd-12th Jan 1879: -2.31

20th-26th Dec 1878: -3.24

8th-17th Dec 1878: -2.95

25th-31st Dec 1874: -2.86

14th-18th Dec 1874: -4.5

25th-31st Jan 1871: -0.97

21st Dec 1870-4th Jan 1871: -4.11

9th-14th Feb 1870: -2.38

11th-21st Jan 1867: -2.85

31st Dec 1866-5th Jan 1867: -3.9

10th-16th 1865: -1.73

19th-23rd Feb 1864: -1.08

1st-8th Jan 1864: -3.43

16th-20th Jan 1862: -1.7

2nd-10th Jan 1861: -2.32

17th-29th Dec 1860: -2.1

9th-14th Feb 1860: -2

13th-19th Dec 1859: -4.89

10th-14th Jan 1856: -0.98

6th-23rd Feb 1855: -3.71

25th Dec 1853-5th Jan 1854: -1.93

11th-21st Feb 1853: -1.23

6th-16th Jan 1850: -1.35

7th-13th Feb 1847: -2.61

11th-16th Dec 1846: -2.63

12th-17th Mar 1845: -2.92

7th-13th Feb 1845: -2.3

5th-14th Dec 1844: -2.68

13th-18th Feb 1843: -1.06

7th-11th Jan 1842: -1.02

1st-10th Feb 1841: -2.94

3rd-9th Jan 1841: -3.96

5th-9th March 1839: -1.32

10th-17th Feb 1838: -2.08

8th-21st Jan 1838: -5.14

20th-24th March 1837: -0.7

24th Dec 1836- 2nd Jan 1837: -1.27

22nd-26th Dec 1835: -1.94

4th-8th Jan 1835: -2.36

21st-25th Jan 1833: -1

23rd-27th Dec 1830: -3.36

30th Jan-6th Feb 1830: -4.55

12th-20th Jan 1830: -2.43

23rd Dec 1829-1st Jan 1830: -1.42

16th-25th Jan 1829: -2.91

16th-20th Feb 1827: -2.78

19th-27th Jan 1827: -2

8th-17th Jan 1826: -3.7

9th-26th Jan 1823: -2.96

26th Dec 1822-1st Jan 1823: -2.1

25th Dec 1820-4th Jan 1821: -1.32

3rd-16th Jan 1820: -3.57

24th Dec 1819-1st Jan 1820: -2.41

8th-14th Dec 1819: -2.94

22nd-26th Dec 1817: -0.96

7th-13th Feb 1816: -3.29

28th jan -1st Feb 1816: -2.06

19th-27th Jan 1815: -2.06

3rd-7th Jan 1815: -0.42

6th-10th Mar 1814: -0.64

20th-27th Feb 1814: -1.56

27th Dec 1813-27th Jan 1814: -3.15

21st-25th Jan 1813: -1.08

12th-16th Dec 1812: -1.46

26th-31st Dec 1811: -1.47

29th Dec 1810- 10th Jan 1811: -1.52

16th-22nd Feb 1810: -1.97

14th-23rd Jan 1809: -2.3

19th-26th Dec 1808: -2.24

5th-10th Dec 1803: -1.72

7th-12th Feb 1803: -1.8

25th-30th Jan 1803: -2.22

10th-16th Jan 1803: -2.13

10th-16th Jan 1802: -2.94

12th-20th Dec 1801: -2.28

5th-9th Mar 1800: -0.82

27th Dec 1799- 2nd Jan 1800: -2.66

19th-25th Dec 1799: -1.82

28th Jan-8th Feb 1799: -2.57

31st Dec 1798-7th Jan 1799: -0.7

24th-29th Dec 1798: -5.38

21st-27th Dec 1796: -3.59

30th Nov-11th Dec 1796: -1.78

17th-22nd Feb 1795: -2.52

29th Jan-7th Feb 1795: -1.56

10th-26th Jan 1795: -3.79

31st Dec 1794-6th Jan 1795: -4.1

17th-21st Feb 1792: -2.32

2nd-9th Jan 1789: -2.76

27th-31st Dec 1788: -2.34

12th-20th Dec 1788: -2.49

29th Dec 1785-4th Jan 1786: -4.21

9th-15th Feb 1784: -1.74

18th Jan-1st Feb 1784: -2.07

6th-11th Jan 1784: -2.28

27th Dec 1783-1st Jan 1784: -3.37

21st Jan-3rd Feb 1780: -1

8th-15th Jan 1780: -4.03

7th Jan -1st Feb 1776: -2.96

31st Dec 1773-5th Jan 1774: -2.28

7th-13th Feb 1773: -1.54

17th-21st Jan 1772: -1.3

Edited October 8, 2007 by Mr_Data

[snowsure]

I am trying to compare the extent of GW in other countries with our warming. Has this been done yet? If not, how can SF (a contributor I have lots-of-time-for) say "Secondly, those previous instances of warming were not supported so widely around the globe."

Is this a reference to the GMST?

[johnholmes]

7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56

23rd Dec 1962-3rd Jan 1963: -2.37

2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08

23rd-29th Dec 1961: -2.01

and some you seriously want to repeat this!?

16th-20th Jan 2001: -0.78

for me I'd be quite happy with a couple of 4/5 day spells with the values for Jan 2001.

[Stratos Ferric]

I am trying to compare the extent of GW in other countries with our warming. Has this been done yet? If not, how can SF (a contributor I have lots-of-time-for) say "Secondly, those previous instances of warming were not supported so widely around the globe."

Is this a reference to the GMST?

A good and fair challenge. I'm extrapolating as you suggest from GMST, for example...

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...ml#seasonal1901

For the hemisphere to have been less cool, relatively, than the UK - if for example the 20s - there must have been compensating cool the other side of the hemispheric mean.

We do still have regional variations - last winter showed this very clearly - but the larger signal presently is definitely the background warming. Where we used to have some places warm and others cool, now we seem to have some mainly just different degrees of warm, with only small pockets of cool.

Here is the list I did on UkWeatherworld last year of those periods that contained at least 5 consecutive days of a CET daily mean of at least 0C or less.

The CET average for that period is given

16th-20th Jan 2001: -0.78

31st Dec 1996- 4th Jan 1997: -1.66

...

17th-21st Jan 1772: -1.3

Interesting data Mr D. We are approaching the record interval without a sustained freezing spell, and already have set a new baseline for the interval required to record more than two such events.

[Weather-history]

Number of CET daily mean with a value of 0C or less since winter 1979-80 for each winter month

Dec 79: 1

Jan 80: 6

Feb 80: 0

Dec 80: 0

Jan 81: 0

Feb 81: 2

Dec 81: 17

Jan 82: 10

Feb 82: 0

Dec 82: 0

Jan 83: 0

Feb 83: 4

Dec 83: 1

Jan 84: 1

Feb 84: 3

Dec 84: 0

Jan 85: 13

Feb 85: 11

Dec 85: 4

Jan 86: 2

Feb 86: 21

Dec 86: 0

Jan 87: 14

Feb 87: 2

Dec 87: 3

Jan 88: 0

Feb 88: 0

Dec 88: 0

Jan 89: 0

Feb 89: 0

Dec 89: 0

Jan 90: 0

Feb 90: 0

Dec 90: 0

Jan 91: 0

Feb 91: 12

Dec 91: 3

Jan 92: 6

Feb 92: 1

Dec 92: 7

Jan 93: 2

Feb 93: 0

Dec 93: 0

Jan 94: 0

Feb 94: 5

Dec 94: 2

Jan 95: 1

Feb 95: 0

Dec 95: 7

Jan 96: 5

Feb 96: 6

Dec 96: 3

Jan 97: 7

Feb 97: 0

Dec 97: 0

Jan 98: 0

Feb 98: 0

Dec 98: 1

Jan 99: 0

Feb 99: 0

Dec 99: 2

Jan 00: 0

Feb 00: 0

Dec 00: 3

Jan 01: 5

Feb 01: 0

Dec 01: 1

Jan 02: 3

Feb 02: 0

Dec 02: 0

Jan 03: 4

Feb 03: 2

Dec 03: 0

Jan 04: 0

Feb 04: 0

Dec 04: 0

Jan 05: 0

Feb 05: 0

Dec 05: 2

Jan 06: 0

Feb 06: 2

Dec 06: 0

Jan 07: 0

Feb 07: 3

Edited October 9, 2007 by Mr_Data

[reef]

Number of CET daily mean with a value of 0C or less since winter 1979-80 for each winter month...

And when you arrange them as whole winters, you get an idea of how crap winters have been since 1997:

1979/80: 7

1980/81: 2

1981/82: 27

1982/83: 4

1983/84: 5

1984/85: 24

1985/86: 27

1986/87: 16

1987/88: 3

1988/89: 0

1989/90: 0

1990/91: 12

1991/92: 10

1992/93: 9

1993/94: 5

1994/95: 3

1995/96: 18

1996/97: 10

1997/98: 0

1998/99: 1

1999/00: 2

2000/01: 8

2001/02: 4

2002/03: 6

2003/04: 0

2004/05: 0

2005/06: 4

2006/07: 3

or by decade:

1980s: 115

1990s: 68

2000s: 27

Yet more proof that sustained potent cold in the UK is becoming less common as the years pass.

[TEITS]

or by decade:

1980s: 115

1990s: 68

2000s: 27

Yet more proof that sustained potent cold in the UK is becoming less common as the years pass.

Im not sure it is proof because I bet if you look at previous decades you will see wild variations between each decade. As an example im sure the 1920s were generally mild with the exception of Feb 1929 so it would be good to compare the 1920s with say the 1960s & 1940s.

[reef]

Im not sure it is proof because I bet if you look at previous decades you will see wild variations between each decade. As an example im sure the 1920s were generally mild with the exception of Feb 1929 so it would be good to compare the 1920s with say the 1960s & 1940s.

The winters of the 1920s had a total of 73 such days, more than the 1990s and 2000s. There will always be variations between winters and indeed decades, but theres no denying the number is definitely on the decline.

Theres also the undeniable fact that the mild CET months of decades such as the 1920s were confined mainly to winter. What we have now is year round warming. The mildest winter of the decade was 1925, but it had an annual CET of 9.17C, the last such year below that recently was 1987.

[Weather-history]

12th-17th Mar 1845: -2.92

Now that is remarkable for the middle of March.

27th Dec 1813-27th Jan 1814: -3.15

The longest one in that list, lasting 32 days

[Stratos Ferric]

Im not sure it is proof because I bet if you look at previous decades you will see wild variations between each decade. As an example im sure the 1920s were generally mild with the exception of Feb 1929 so it would be good to compare the 1920s with say the 1960s & 1940s.

Eye,

If Paxman were on this site he'd be rolling his eyes and issuing a stern 'oh come on Mr Eye' to that one. Even viewed through the rosiest tinted wallpaper there's really no denying that if things continue as they are the prospects for winter as we once knew it (well, some of us) are looking very belak indeed.

[Stu_London]

belak?

Is that a new urban weather term - bleak and black combined

anyway that is the 64bn dollar question - 'will things continue as they have'

[ukmoose]

It's that time of year when I revisit the winter stats to explore the potential for the coming season. I'm sure I'll reprise some updated old favourites, but first up a new plot. This is in direct response to the chatter recently about the potential for sustained winter cold.

What the plot shows is that winter spells of cold weather (I've used the cut off of a mean of 0C per day) have become far less frequent. For ease of viewing I've smoothed the data a little, what's shown is five day rolling means, but it removes some of the spikiness in the data whilst not distorting the relative length and intensity of cold weather (the net effect will be to shorten the plotted duration very slightly). What is manifestly clear is that, as has been pointed out by a few people, cold is still possible (just) but is far less frequent, of shorter duration, and less intense in the modern climate than was formerly the case.

What can we say for this winter? Little other than that a prolonged spell of intense cold is unlikely.

I agree.

There is no denying the fact that sustained cold becomes more unlikely each year. A lot of people on this forum will contest it but it's indisputable if we are honest. Just look at the figures for goodness sake. It doesn't make comfortable reading but it must be read nonetheless.

There are 'lies, damn lies and statistics' and there's weather data which leaps up and smacks you right between the eye - unless you happen to have your head shoved so far up an ostrich's bottom (sorry about the mixed metaphor) that you are completely safe from being struck by any wandering piece of meteorological data however sharp and accurate it might be.

This autumn and winter will, almost certainly, turn out like the last 18 or so. Sustained cold? Only in your beer fridge.

I know this forum is as much about hope and drooling over fantasy island model watching as it is about actual facts and what's really likely to happen and that's fine. If I'm honest, I like nothing more than to read a semi-convincing post that argues the next severe cold spell is just around the corner.

I'm still wating....

Moose

[TEITS]

This autumn and winter will, almost certainly, turn out like the last 18 or so. Sustained cold? Only in your beer fridge.

Funny because I was expecting our summer to be warm & sunny based on the previous 18 and yet we had 2 below average months and dreadful flooding.

The only certainity is how uncertain our weather can be!.

[Stratos Ferric]

Funny because I was expecting our summer to be warm & sunny based on the previous 18 and yet we had 2 below average months and dreadful flooding.

The only certainity is how uncertain our weather can be!.

Yes, though around 99% of the time it's uncertain within given bands. Even a numpty could look at a lot of the stats on here and spot the pattern wherein persistent and extreme cold is a far less frequent visitor to these shores than it used to be.

This winter may well be cold, but if it is it will be interesting to see just how cold.

[weather eater]

Listen, I've cocked up forecasting-wise. I've said it's twice, but it's actually a good three times if I include the TEITS event at the end of last winter than produced snow. Winter 2005/6 and now this cool, cool, summer have made me re-think what's happening that's all. I am fairly sure we're in a cooler phase. SF will say it's no more than a temporary blip. I'm not so sure!

Have nicked the above quote from the model thread as its not the place to discuss my reply so I will slap it here.

Think you forget that even the most ardent advocates of AGW theory would not dream of suggesting that temps will go up and up without some lulls or even there being instances of cooler years or the odd cold winter. To ascertain whether that upward curve has peaked or in decline would take several years of evidence. If you gave 100 people with cancer carrots for a year and two of them got better would that mean carrots cure cancer I think not. While enjoying the change of pattern this year and the hope I might get to see some genuinely cold weather this winter I really do think it’s a blip. Even in other mild interludes in known history like the medieval warm period cold winters still occurred and despite the lack of accurate data it is believed by climatologists that temps were warmer then than they are now. That does raise an interesting point how fast did temps rise in that period and why.

[stormforce 10]

Funny because I was expecting our summer to be warm & sunny based on the previous 18 and yet we had 2 below average months and dreadful flooding.

The only certainity is how uncertain our weather can be!.

hi teits thats the fun about living on these islands, we can get any type of weather thrown at us.i wouldnt want to live anywhere else.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Funny because I was expecting our summer to be warm & sunny based on the previous 18 and yet we had 2 below average months and dreadful flooding.

The only certainity is how uncertain our weather can be!.

I must admit the figures do paint a picture of a bad for cold trend but I am not a fan of stats, because depending on how they are used they can be very misleading [not saying on this occasion at all but in general I'm not a fan]. I am just waiting for a period when decent sustained cold of well below average temps arrives and comments of how it would have been 5c colder in days gone by.

BFTP

Edited October 14, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST