TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm Higibis

[Cookie]

Tropical Depression 23W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

any word on this somerset any signs of strengthing?

[Somerset Squall]

any word on this somerset any signs of strengthing?

Indeed it has Cookie- the only thing in the short term is land which will slow intensification. The environment is looking good for this storm and it really has blown up out of nowhere, it was only labelled as an invest this afternoon.

Equatorial and poleward outflow is very good, sea temps are very warm and 23W is also in a region of high moisture so the ingredients are there for a typhoon out of this one I would have thought. As I said before, strengthening in the next 24 hours will be limited due to land interaction with the Phillipines but once it emerges in the South China Sea then intensification should begin proper. 23W is on a westward track and should continue on this track with steering provided by the high pressure to the north of the system, which also stretches westwards. After passing over the Phillipines the most likely place a second landfall would occur is Vietnam, but this is obviously not set in stone as track predictions could change. Overall, the environment is very favourable for further development and a late season typhoon is quite likely IMO.

Satellite image of TD23W: (centre left over Phillipines)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[Cookie]

thanks mate.

Storm Alert issued at 19 Nov, 2007 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 23W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 60% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

[Somerset Squall]

The JMA have upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Mitag. Track has not changed and a Vietnam landfall still look likely. Intensification has been slow so far due to land interaction but moderate intensification should occur as Mitag moves across the South China Sea as warm sea temps and good outflow combat moderate shear.

[Somerset Squall]

Hagibis has almost reached Typhoon intensity with maximum sustained winds of 60kt. Hagibis is still on course for landfall in southern Vietnam in the next few days as ridging to the north of the storm will ensure a continued westward track. Hagibis is likely to be a typhoon at landfall.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 20 Nov, 2007 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

thier seems to be a lot heading that way at the moment

[Somerset Squall]

thier seems to be a lot heading that way at the moment

Quite. The Phillipines have been hit by reletively few typhoons this year but that is changing now!

Hagibis has been upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon now. Still on course for Vietnam.

[Cookie]

thanks mate

[Somerset Squall]

Hagibis has continued generally westward whilst strengthening, currently a peak of 85kt is forecasted by the JTWC which is higher than previous estimates. Typhoon Hagibis is expected to weaken after reaching that peak due to entainment of dry air and lower sea temps near the coast of Vietnam. Still likely to cause problems for Vietnam nonetheless.

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Hagibis did indeed reach a peak of 85kt (cat 2) earlier today but has now began to weaken due to land interaction with Vietnam and ingestion of drier air. Hagibis is already bringing rain and storng winds to portions of Vietnam and conditions will worsen obviously as Hagibis actually makes landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Hagibis has stalled for similar reasons to Mitag, in fact Hagibis has moved a little to the northeast in the past 6 hours. However, the westwards track is expected to resume and take a weakened storm onto the coast of Vietnam. Hagibis will be more of a rainmaker than anything I would imagine- but it will still cause problems, mainly flooding. Hagibis has weakened as Mitag's outflow has increased shear over the storm and will continue to do so over the next day or so until dissapation.

[Somerset Squall]

There has been a big change in regards to Hagibis' future track. It is no longer going to make landfall in Vietnam- it's made an eastwards u-turn back towards the Phillipines as a subtropical ridge to the south has become the dominant steering influence. Hagibis will continue to weaken due to high shear and cool sea temps due to upwelling (it's moving over waters it's already used and churned up, thus cooling it) and is forecasted to dissapate over Luzon in a few days.

This means any affects Vietnam has felt from Hagibis will abate over the coming days and the country will not receive a direct landfall like has been forecasted up to this point. An interesting tunaround, quite literally

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates as ever mate

[Somerset Squall]

Hagibis has weakened to a minimal tropical storm as it is suffering shear and low sea temps as it moves back eastwards towards the Phillipines (which is where it started from!). Here is it's track so far, a really rare track- it looked so nailed on to make landfall in Vietnam but it made a complete u-turn as steering patterns reversed.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_paci...2007/index.html

The storm will continue to track eastwards whilst weakening and make landfall in the Phillipines. Land interaction may finish Hagibis off, but it is possible that Hagibis may remain intact and begin heading northwards in the wake of Mitag. I would favour dissapation over the Phillipines but Hagibis has surprised me before and could well have another surprise up it's sleeve. Either way, yet more rainfall for the Phillipines which really isn't good news. There's also a disturbance well east of the Phillipines which could form into a tropical depression later today, let's hope it doesn't move towards the Phillipines and recurves out to sea instead, we can hope!

[Somerset Squall]

Hagibis has weakened to a tropical depression but is now expected to survive it's track over the Phillipines and then re-intensify over warm sea temps as it tracks northeastwards in the Phillipine Sea. Certainly a long tracker this one which certainly doesn't want to give up or stop surprising us.

[Somerset Squall]

Dissapation over the Phillipines is once again favoured by the JTWC but the JMA forecast Hagibis to survive as it moves in the Phillipine Sea. Wait and see would be a good option here- I still favour dissapation as Hagbis has weakened to 25kt and unfavourable conditions are set to persist for the next 48 hours at least and land interaction will hinder the system soon aswell. The LLC has become weak though it is still well defined, but convection is scant over the centre itself as shear is displacing any remaining convection to the west of the centre.

[Somerset Squall]

Hagibis weakened to a remnant low yesterday and has crossed the Phillipines. Looking at recent satellite imagery it looks like the remnants of Hagibis are being pulled towards the disturbance to the east of the Phillipines and it looks like this disturbance will absorb them. May give a little boost to the disturbance so to speak.

[Cookie]

found this nice little video wich is worth a watch only 9 seconds long

[Somerset Squall]

I think you've forgotten the link Cookie?

[Cookie]

so do I crap and I cant find it either.

* feels very daft and stupid*

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXCbAtkgNMw

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- love the link. Don't worry about it, I've done that before too.

Have a look at this guys videos, particularly the satellite runs of the typhoons this year- very interesting to watch IMO.

http://youtube.com/user/joshuaagar

[Cookie]

great link mate. one thing I did notcie is that a few of those typhoons as they got close to land not over land they got ripped apart by the same wind direction, is that common?

[Somerset Squall]

When they get near Japan they usually get caught up in upper level westerlies which shear them apart whilst sending them quickly northeastwards. The waters are cooler here also, which forces them to become extratropical (which is what our depressions in this country are). This is what the storms you are refering to are doing.

Examples of the top of my head would be: Faxai, Tapah, 25W, 26W, Kajiki, Haiyan, Podul, Lingling etc. It's not rare, it's basically the same as what Hurricanes near the USA do when they move towards the UK.

Hope I've managed to explain without rambling . My knowledge is limited about extratropical transition but this is what the storms you mentioned are doing.

[Cookie]

thanks mate great explerntaion