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Severe storm forecasts etc


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    The previous thread regarding the forecasts for severe storms created by Piers Corbyn has been removed. If you wish to continue to discuss those forecasts, please stick to a factual validation of them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
    The previous thread regarding the forecasts for severe storms created by Piers Corbyn has been removed. If you wish to continue to discuss those forecasts, please stick to a factual validation of them.

    Ok, this is factual and personally i think it needs to be addressed.

    From Weather Action: http://www.weatheraction.com/

    What is the sun doing

    Recent changes in Sun-Earth linkages and events on the sun support our forecasts. There have been three Coronal Mass Ejections ('CMEs') on 29th / 30th December in which sections of the corona of the sun blast into space and make important effects in the 'Solar Wind' - the million mph / 2 million kph plus rush of particles from the Sun. see http://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/diffmovie/cme0008.html

    Firstly, how anyone can tell that three CME's occured on Dec 29/30 is beyond me. Has to be an error in the month.

    Secondly, if it was Nov 29/30 Weather Action meant, there were no CME's - zilch. I watch these things very closely and can categorically state only the solar wind was higher than usual around those dates. Perhaps WA are getting confused with Coronal Holes and CME's?

    Poor show.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    If i may add more, a few of us on here last year researched what the weather was like a couple of days after an X-flare CME occured. As short as only 18 months or so ago, X-flares were common enough - the type that produce billions of tons of ionised particles into space.

    We didn't really find anything conclusive, so i'm beginning to wonder how WA are using CME's at all to forecast.

    An example for anyone is to google X40 flare - the biggest ever to have occured a few years ago. Find the date, add a day or two on due to the length of time the charged particles travel through space, then look for any weather event that occured as the imapct of the X-flare hit earth - you'll find nothing special happened.

    EDIT

    If anyone is interested, here's some dates for you to check against.

    Two of the largest GOES flares were the X20 events (2 mW/m²) recorded on August 16, 1989 and April 2, 2001. However, these events were outshone by a flare on November 4, 2003 that was the most powerful X-ray flare ever recorded
    . LINK

    Remember to add two or three days on to the dates above, and then check the wevva worldwide!

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Weather charts 48 hours after the dates mentioned above. (Northern Hemisphere)

    Nov 7, 2003 (X40 flare - largest ever)

    Rhavn00120031107.png

    April 5, 2001 (X20 flare)

    Rhavn00120010405.png

    I'm no expert on charts like these - i know some of you are - but with my limited knowledge, they both show a fairly healthy picture, synoptic-wise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Well, a C-class flare occured earlier on the Sun today. If going by Weather Action, who seem to use CME's suggesting differing weather occurences - this is the first since August - will they use this C1 flare as evidence of a forthcoming weather event?

    LINK to the space section

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    In my own research, solar flares, CMEs etc, are not expected to have direct influence on weather patterns. This is because they are postulated to be disruptions of SSMF sectors near the Sun by the motion of Mercury or Venus through the inner solar system, and thus the effects they might have would show up in the relevant atmospheric effects where retrograde blocking is underway. These effects would be minor at best, in my view, and I have not managed to observe them in weather events on a number of recent occasions.

    I also think that the idea of extra energy reaching our upper atmosphere from these events has been researched considerably by others and the results are rather mixed but not very dramatic.

    It is a very big stretch to postulated major storms on a regular basis every time the Sun blows off a few excess electrons.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Indeed.

    If you go back to the basics of a CME, all they have ever done is disrupt radio transmissions, cause power outages (blackouts), and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission lines.

    Never before has it been documented in prime, well kown, Space Weather glossaries that CME's or flares affect global weather.

    I note on WA that the section titled "Solar Technique" is still to be constructed. I'd be very interested in reading once completed - because right now i don't buy it.

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Piers Corbyn's prediction of a Christmas storm has been an absolute disaster. That is the only way I can describe it.

    [WHAT IS COMING NEXT

    Two more serious storm periods are forecast by WeatherAction for December:- Around 5th-9th and around 23rd to 26th. The 23rd-26th is likley to include storms as severe or more severe than this one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    It depends he did get it right for the 23rd december we got winds of 94 mph on lewis,

    94mph winds at Lewis is not the same as 94mph in central London. The fact is he went for a very windy spell further south and he specifically recalled great wind events of the past and said they could be or even worse than these. The reality was there was no such storm.

    Are you sure of Lewis's 94mph? Nothing in the charts suggest this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    yup, very much so, http://www.gm7pbb.co.uk/

    and wind speed of 74 mph here

    which was working at the time.

    http://www.hebrides-photos.com/weather/Weatherindex.php

    I'm not entirely convinced by that 94mph unless it was an isolated gust. Stornoway recorded a peak gust of 68mph for that day. :rolleyes:

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