Tropical Cyclone Daman

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone Daman formed in the early hours of this morning in the South Pacific, a fair way north of Fiji. It has since began rapid strengthening, jumping from 35kt to 50kt in 12 hours. Strengthening has occured due to low shear and warm sea temperatures. Daman is currently pushing southwestward around the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the south, but a southeastward turn is anticipated later in the forecast period in response to an approaching trough from the west. This will bring it very close to Fiji, and Daman has the potential to be a pretty strong storm by this point, so it's worth watching over the next few days.

Satellite image of Daman (located top-left near Fiji):

Daman is fairly small so he could strengthen fairly quickly but at the same time will be more sensitive to environmental conditions than if he were a larger storm.

[Cookie]

just got an alert for this, first for a while.

Tropical Storm DAMAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Fiji

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the update Cookie.

Daman has intensified significantly over the past 12 hours and has reached Cat 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with an intensity of 70kts. Reasons for the intensification are good outflow, low shear and high sea temps. More strengthening is anticipated with continued favourable conditions- the JTWC calls a peak of 80kts but it has the scope to become a little stronger than that; it has a very well defined eye on satellite imagery and is has another good 24 hours before land interaction begins with Fiji. Daman is now tracking southeastwards as forecast and landfall should occur beyond 24 hours. After landfall, Daman is expected to begin extratropical transition over cooler waters, where it could become a fairly powerful extratropical system.

[Somerset Squall]

Cyclone Daman has bombed and is now a 100kt, cat 3 (SS scale) storm. Additional strengthening is predicted, this one is a monster! It's not looking good for Fiji.

A new image of the cyclone (the one I posted above doesn't seem to be updating as quickly). Daman is on the right, you can see his pinhole eye which is indicative of a strong cyclone:

[Somerset Squall]

Daman is now on a weakening trend. It peaked at 105kt but now is only 95kt and the eye is largely cloud filled. A trough to the southwest is approaching Daman and has increased the shear over the storm. Cooler sea temps and high shear will continue to weaken Daman and extratropical transition will begin in 48 hours as Daman interacts with the trough.

News Link regarding Fiji: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22885980-401,00.html

[Mondy]

A passenger ship was also blown on to a reef at Rotuma Island..

[Somerset Squall]

A passenger ship was also blown on to a reef at Rotuma Island..

Blimey! Daman was really packing some hefty winds

But it's bye bye Daman now, continued shear has dissapated all convection over the centre and the centre is forecast to dissapate by 24hr. Regeneration is not expected as conditions remain unfavourable.

[Cookie]

thanks for the link somerset winds of 155 mph according to that article! we think we've got it bad

[Somerset Squall]

More on the damage done by Daman to Fiji earlier this month:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/impact...2/18403664.html

[Cookie]

the amount of money quoted in that article dosent seem like much, how big is that island? of Cikobia

[Somerset Squall]

the amount of money quoted in that article dosent seem like much, how big is that island? of Cikobia

It's tiny, it only has 69 inhabitants, and the island was entirely flattened. Better link here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071207/wl_as...ijistormcyclone

[Cookie]

that is a lot of money then!