Tropical Storm OLGA

[Somerset Squall]

We have an off season storm in the Atlantic basin, named Olga. The storm is only subtropical and convection is well removed to the north of the centre. Conditions are good at the moment for Olga as it has good outflow and low shear. However, land interaction with Hispaniola and higher shear will induce weakening to a remnant low. Interestingly, the NHC highlight the possibility of regeneration over the waters of the Western Caribbean which are still very warm.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007

400 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REVEALS THAT THE

CENTER OF OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THAT

ISLAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AT A WESTWARD HEADING OF 270

DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT. OLGA SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL

DECLINE...GIVEN A SLIGHT THINNING OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN THE RADAR

IMAGERY...WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A

DECREASE IN LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

REMAINS 40 KT...HOWEVER...BASED ON THE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS OF ABOUT 40 KT FROM A FEW SHIPS AND NOAA BUOY

41043. THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS

FROM A FORTUITOUS ASCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0206Z. FOR NOW WE WILL

RETAIN THE SUBTROPICAL DESIGNATION FOR OLGA SINCE WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED

ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE

WEAKENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER

TODAY...SO OLGA COULD SOON MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL

CYCLONE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...SINCE A LOW- TO

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY STEER OLGA ON

A CONTINUED WESTWARD PATH OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE NORTHERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EXACT PATH OF THE CENTER ITSELF IS OF

RELATIVELY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THIS CASE...SINCE MOST OF THE

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

DUE TO OLGA'S DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO REACHING HISPANIOLA APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND

HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM.

WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS OLGA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT

RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IF

OLGA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SURVIVES THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE

MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 18.5N 67.0W 40 KT

12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.5N 69.4W 40 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 72.8W 30 KT...NEAR COAST OF HAITI

36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 76.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING

48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.5N 79.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 83.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[Cookie]

i got 4 alerts for this in a row when I got home.

Storm Alert issued at 11 Dec, 2007 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm OLGA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 100% currently

Puerto Rico

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Cuba

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the update Cookie.

I wasn't expecting another storm this year for the Atlantic so it was a bit of a surprise. Puerto Rico and Hispaniola/Haiti are experiencing some very heavy rainfall which could cause life threating flash floods and mudslides- hopefully damage and deaths will be kept to a minimum but it isn't looking good for the area as they were recently devestated by Hurricane Noel (which incidently was the deadliest storm this year in the Atlantic Basin).

The latest discussion says that Olga may be turning tropical as winds are contracting and convection is flaring nearer to her centre (she is subtropical at the moment as the strongest winds and convection are displaced north of the centre). Recon is out investigating Olga now to assess wind speeds and whether Olga is becoming tropical or not. Olga is not expected to last beyond 36 hrs due to increased shear and continued land interaction which should weaken the storm into a remnant low.

[Somerset Squall]

Recon have found that Olga has strengthened to 50kts and has also become tropical.

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm OLGA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Cuba

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

[Cookie]

update

Tropical Storm OLGA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 100% currently

[lightnin]

So how strong is this storm gonna be and is it gonna cause much damage?

[Somerset Squall]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7140765.stm

Thanks for the link Wibs. Olga is certainly a rare storm and it's track through the Carribean was bound to cause problems.

So how strong is this storm gonna be and is it gonna cause much damage?

See Wibs' link Lightnin . Olga reached a peak of 50kt but has now weakened to a tropical depression and is not expected to regenerate or restrengthen due to dry air and strong shear.

Latest disscusion from NHC: (they may be generous holding onto Olga as a tropical depression even)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007

400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. OLGA HAS

BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN

UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE

OF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT

LONGER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE

LONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE

CENTER. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO

MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE

SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND

IF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING

FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.9N 76.9W 30 KT

12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 79.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 82.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.9N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

[Odd Spot]

Hi guys.

Just arrived back from the Dominincan Republic this morning (friday 21st) from a 2 week holiday.

We were there when Olga hit. It did not hit us direct in Punta Cana on the East Coast but wow. It proved to be quite a experience. I tried to talk to one of the dominicans who we got to know during the holiday about the storm, and his face told the story. More unfortunate deaths in a poor region with great people.

I have some video / pictures which i will upload soon of the day Olga passed through. (plus many more weather related pictures from our holiday including a Waterspout, which was a incredible sight)

[Cookie]

I cant wait to see you pics and vidos

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, a devestating off season storm. Looking forward to the vids OS.

[Odd Spot]

Indeed, a devestating off season storm. Looking forward to the vids OS.

Hi SS

Been in the pub today (as it is christmas :lol: )

So not had time to mess with the videos. reason is some are over 100MB in size and all these upload sites only do up to 100 so i'm trying to find somethong that will let me reduce the file size

I'll try and sort and show asap and put in the photography section.

Cheers

[Cookie]

have u tryed via bebo mate? I have uploaded quite afew throught them.

[Odd Spot]

have u tryed via bebo mate? I have uploaded quite afew throught them.

I'll give it a go pal once the old head gets back in gear.

ASAP i will have a go. Then as soon as, they will be put on here.....hopefully

Cheers

OS

[Cookie]

the anticption is killer.