East Coast Storm Development

[Yozzer]

I think that is unlikely. At best the secondary low may track a bit further East. The Canadian High has nothing to stop it exiting stage right so the primary low will continue to the West.

As for temps, there may be longer periods of freezing PPN in some places further East, but I can't see areas in Southern New England and Boston southward not changing over to plain rain. Southern NH may also see some freezing rain for a while.

I was not referring to the change to rain in S. New England, rather the area of intense ppn being slightly more to the east than is currently progged, i.e. N/E NY State,N Vermont/N. NH, N & WCent Maine, as well as Eastern Quebec. The models seem to be having difficulty with the cold air damming east of the Appalachians just now. Jury will return its verdict Mon am...

[Roger J Smith]

That location is far enough north in NH to be in the max snowfall zone, I would think, despite the inland track of the low, it will move just south of there and bring 15 inches of snow possibly. The roof is probably slanted in that part of the world, so the wind will take care of the snow build-up if there is any. I lived in a very heavy snow area for several years and never had any problems there with snow on the roof, but the one big storm we ever had in Vancouver was caving in flat roofs all over the place.

[Yozzer]

Going there over Xmas/New Year so looking forward to a decent white Xmas for once.

Roof is metal, so avoids snow build up by allowing heat to melt the bottom of the snow pack, allowing it to slide off...or so I've been told!

Latest GFS running a succession of storms up the Eastern Seaboard over next couple of weeks, so looks like I95 areas could get 'lucky' soon.

[WhiteFox]

I was not referring to the change to rain in S. New England, rather the area of intense ppn being slightly more to the east than is currently progged, i.e. N/E NY State,N Vermont/N. NH, N & WCent Maine, as well as Eastern Quebec. The models seem to be having difficulty with the cold air damming east of the Appalachians just now. Jury will return its verdict Mon am...

Fair enough. Northern NH will get a good hit whatever happens. I think by the time you get there it'll be pretty well buried!

Started sleeting with some snow mixed in here in NYC. I've just come back from NJ and it felt bitterly cold there. Evidently the upper levels have warmed, and the surface remains cold. Looks like the leading edge of the storm before a dry slot comes through followed by rain.

[WhiteFox]

Latest obervations from Central Park:

01:51 NE 15 G 23 6.00 Unknown Precip BKN018 OVC023 32 26 30.11 1018.9 0.05

'Unknown Precip'. Near LGA where I am, it is sleet with a few snow flakes thrown in for good measure. Pretty close to freezing at the surface right now. We have a coating of sleet on the cars and pavements outside.

[Yozzer]

Secondary low now deepening rapidly. The ppn so far has merely been the precursor, as this warm moisture laden air moves up the coast of S New England later the heavens will open. Would not be surprised to see rates in some areas of 2-3" per hr, especially over the north and mountains. The ski resorts have already had a pretty good start to the season, this will certainly be 'Christmas come early!'

[Yozzer]

Just checked latest radar and webcams. Small(ish) area of mixed ppn S NY state looking quite fragmented now. Cold air hanging on in S New England as I thought, Boston currently -1 and heavy wet snow accumulating. Check out www.hazecam.netNew England webcams. Burlington is getting buried!

[WhiteFox]

Just checked latest radar and webcams. Small(ish) area of mixed ppn S NY state looking quite fragmented now. Cold air hanging on in S New England as I thought, Boston currently -1 and heavy wet snow accumulating. Check out www.hazecam.netNew England webcams. Burlington is getting buried!

Cold Air damming still in place, but it's only a matter of time for the likes of Boston. The further from the coast the less likely the changeover, but the low is starting to crank up now so the southern CT/RI/MA shoreline will see the change within the next couple of hours and then it's a matter of how far it goes. NWS going for as far north as parts of Vermont turning to sleet for a time (but still 12-18") and NH turning to freezing rain. Having said that, they do often underestimate the strength of the cold air so possibly staying as sleet rather than freezing rain. The high pressure has now disappeared however, so it is reliant on the air already in place as the source has now been cut off:

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. A LAYER OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

[Mondy]

http://at.bc.edu/webcams/bostonskyline/

[Roger J Smith]

Low centre is now near Erie PA with the coastal secondary near ACY, these two will quickly merge into one centre by 00z near Worcester MA, very heavy snow currently across most of upstate NY and south-central ON with thunder reported recently at Toronto, ice pellets mixing in here but the heavy snow for New England should be anywhere north of the low track so probably what has already fallen is about it for CT and RI, se MA, meanwhile another 10-30 inches likely for nw MA, all of VT-NH and most of Maine, all of southern Quebec province and inland NB also. Would imagine some ski resorts will see 30-40 inch amounts then several days of very cold weather to set conditions for ideal ski-ing by the Christmas holiday as long as it doesn't warm too much then. NYC in a bit of a dry slot now, heavy rain likely to move back in later as the storm phases over Long Island, thunderstorm possibility, a few hours of murky 10 C with fog, then a sharp windshift to NW and much colder late tonight there.

If you want to see the storm, you might find some coverage of today's (1800 GMT) game at Foxboro (Boston suburbs) between the Jets and the New England Patriots. I am not sure if that is even going to happen, probably will.

The 18z report from Worcester MA claimed the wind was 18G180 in a squall, somebody's 'aving a laff there.

[debs]

Hiya Peeps,

Thought I'd update before the power goes out. Storm has hit St Martins about an hour ago. Winds pretty strong. As I am not into the technical stuff, thats about all I can say. Snow coming down fast and blowing around. They are expecting about 20cm tonight.

TTFN

Debs

[Roger J Smith]

Hey Debs, that sounds about right, then some freezing rain Monday morning, a brief thaw to 5-6 C at lunch time Monday, followed by a bitter blast from the W to NW and temperatures falling rapidly to about -15 C by Tuesday. There could be some blinding snow and blowing snow during both the first and third phases of the storm, and the roads will get very treacherous from the freezing rain and brief thaw, I hope you don't have to go anywhere tomorrow or Tuesday.

Not getting any live coverage here, the New England football game not too bad as it has thawed to 1 C in Boston now, but the game at Cleveland (against Buffalo) is being played in a blinding snow squall and 45 mph winds, the conditions are brutal, once again this game is not on live TV here but I've been seeing "highlights" and these are frankly quite hilarious.

Edited December 16, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[WhiteFox]

Indeed, the rain line has now progressed to the North of Boston.

As for LGA:

16 13:51 NE 20 2.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist OVC005 37 34 29.13 986.5

16 12:51 E 21 G 35 4.00 Light Drizzle Fog/Mist and Breezy BKN005 OVC007 37 34 40 35 29.20 988.6 0.01 0.14

Pressure drop of 2.1MB in the past hour. Not much rain here so far; the event has only dropped about half an inch in total. Probably some more a bit later on though. Also, the temperature has dropped 3oF since 1151. Temperatures may have peaked as latest plots show the warmest sector of air has now just about passed:

Still a bit more warming to come further up the coast.

Latest reports from Albany show freezing drizzle; Bennington State Airport in Southern NH reporting 'unknown precip', usually a mix of sleet and snow. Up in Northern NH at Berlin airport, freezing fog and light snow with an air temperature of 13oF (About -10oC).

Edited December 16, 2007 by WhiteFox

[MAF]

Hiya Peeps, Thought I'd update before the power goes out. Storm has hit St Martins about an hour ago. Winds pretty strong. As I am not into the technical stuff, thats about all I can say. Snow coming down fast and blowing around. They are expecting about 20cm tonight. TTFN Debs

hello debs, hope you are safe out there and well prepared, though i imagine its only this country that is never prepared for severe weather. just been reading this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7146947.stm

and the ice storm pics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/7138393.stm

[Yozzer]

Just spoken to my caretaker guy near Whitefield, NH. About 10" powder fallen, not too much blowing about but wind beginning to pick up now and started snowing again.

Looks like the snowmobile trails will be in good shape by the time we arrive.

[WhiteFox]

Just spoken to my caretaker guy near Whitefield, NH. About 10" powder fallen, not too much blowing about but wind beginning to pick up now and started snowing again.

Looks like the snowmobile trails will be in good shape by the time we arrive.

A veritable winter wonderland awaits you. Great choice of location for a place. I'm tempted by somewhere in Northern NE or Maine myself; great for winter weather and much more bearable in summer.

[Yozzer]

A veritable winter wonderland awaits you. Great choice of location for a place. I'm tempted by somewhere in Northern NE or Maine myself; great for winter weather and much more bearable in summer.

Chose NH as it is tax free. Must admit the current strength of pound v dollar and weak US house prices helped make the decision! House has 400' frontage on to Connecticut river, so looking forward to canoeing in summer too.

What made you settle 'over the pond?'

[WhiteFox]

Chose NH as it is tax free. Must admit the current strength of pound v dollar and weak US house prices helped make the decision! House has 400' frontage on to Connecticut river, so looking forward to canoeing in summer too.

What made you settle 'over the pond?'

The cost of living is a big factor. As you say, the price of property over here away from the obvious hotspots is such a bargain by comparison to the UK. Even though I get paid in Dollars (boo!), everything is just so much cheaper. I also love the variety over here; everything from desert to sub-artic (if you include Alaska!). At the moment I'm here on a work permit, but have to make a decision on a Green Card. I'll probably just go for it; I fancy a big house up there in New England with lots of land. I've always wanted a sit-down mower! Are you considering moving over or is this purely a holiday home?

Incidentally, the cold air being dragged in as the storm passes is now forecast to be that bit colder. The wind picked up pretty fierce here earlier, but seems to have died down a bit now. Just a few flurries rushing by in the wind now. NYC is not a good location for snow showers (or any kind of showers at any time of year to be honest)...

Edited December 17, 2007 by WhiteFox

[Yozzer]

The cost of living is a big factor. As you say, the price of property over here away from the obvious hotspots is such a bargain by comparison to the UK. Even though I get paid in Dollars (boo!), everything is just so much cheaper. I also love the variety over here; everything from desert to sub-artic (if you include Alaska!). At the moment I'm here on a work permit, but have to make a decision on a Green Card. I'll probably just go for it; I fancy a big house up there in New England with lots of land. I've always wanted a sit-down mower! Are you considering moving over or is this purely a holiday home?

Incidentally, the cold air being dragged in as the storm passes is now forecast to be that bit colder. The wind picked up pretty fierce here earlier, but seems to have died down a bit now. Just a few flurries rushing by in the wind now. NYC is not a good location for snow showers (or any kind of showers at any time of year to be honest)...

Just a holiday home. May spend more time across there in the future. Looked at green card, would not qualify unless I won lottery or went on (very long) waiting list!!

Hoping GFS wrong and it doesn't rain there for our arrival. Looks as though it might, then freeze straight after. In any case, some moderation of temps looks likely there over Xmas.

[johnholmes]

WF

the chart you post of temps behind the low are only to be dreamed of in this country. Possibly for the best reading the newscasts of the fairly large number of deaths already this winter.

Snow and frost are great, in my view, in fairly small doses, not in the huge chunks you get in most winters.

But then I'm an old fella and can live on my memories of severe winters even in this country.

[Rollo]

I do not like that remark(I am an old fella) one little bit John, you are but a young man(compared to some I will refrain from mentioning) and will enjoy a series of severe winters yet(he said with tongue in cheek).

[johnholmes]

ta Rollo, best I not divulge my actual age, you might be in for a shock!

[WhiteFox]

WF

the chart you post of temps behind the low are only to be dreamed of in this country. Possibly for the best reading the newscasts of the fairly large number of deaths already this winter.

Snow and frost are great, in my view, in fairly small doses, not in the huge chunks you get in most winters.

But then I'm an old fella and can live on my memories of severe winters even in this country.

What I can tell you is that there is a fierce wind blowing out there today. Given the air temperature of about -2oC and the wind being funnelled by the tall buildings you can bet that it feels extremely cold! Add in the dewpoint of about -12oC and all moisture is sucked from your skin, so my hands end up looking about twenty years older.

As for overall climate, New York is a reasonable mix. We do tend to get weather in chunks of about a week; it will be sub-zero for about a week, and then we'll get a period in the high single digits. Although I do love the cold I do admit that by the time we get towards the end of March I am looking forward to warm sunshine and temperatures in the twenties...

[debs]

Hey Debs, that sounds about right, then some freezing rain Monday morning, a brief thaw to 5-6 C at lunch time Monday, followed by a bitter blast from the W to NW and temperatures falling rapidly to about -15 C by Tuesday. There could be some blinding snow and blowing snow during both the first and third phases of the storm, and the roads will get very treacherous from the freezing rain and brief thaw, I hope you don't have to go anywhere tomorrow or Tuesday.

Hello.

Well that was an experience. Managed to ditch the car. Snow kept coming and overnight Saturday you could here the ice pellets hitting the windows. Woke up to over a foot more snow but it was solid in place, so you were actually walking on top of the snow. Took ages to dig out the car. Wonderful to watch. Couldn't see the other side of the road when the wind blew the snow around.

Temps on Monday seemed like a heatwave in comparison but today its back down to -8 and windchill presently of -15, but thats warmer than what its been of late

Picture of the demise of the car......don't worry we didn't get hurt.

TTFN

Debs

[debs]

hello debs, hope you are safe out there and well prepared, though i imagine its only this country that is never prepared for severe weather. just been reading this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7146947.stm

and the ice storm pics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/7138393.stm

Cheers for the links Mick. You learn very quickly to be prepared here. After the first power cut I went out and bought a couple of oil lamps because they are brighter and also warm your hands up better than candles

I will make sure that when we buy a house it will definately have a wood stove in it. The house I am renting presently only has electric heating........but if its too cold you just head off to bed if its night time or wrap up in blankets, or in our case we dash round to our friends and sit in front of their fire and have a drink or two or three...........

TTFN

Debs

Edited December 18, 2007 by debs