Tropical Storm Celina

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm 06S is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

I see your storm alert has picked up on this South Indian Ocean storm- Tropical Storm Celina. The storm developed on the 13th December but it has always been a weak storm (35kt at best) and is now losing a battle with shear and cooler sea temps. The storm is approaching La Reunion where it could cause some large rainfall totals but I don't expect winds to be severe as this is now a decaying storm.

Satellite image of Celina to the southwest (with two developing invests to her northeast):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Latest advisory (number 10) from JTWC

REMARKS:

171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 60.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CELINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM

EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND A 170958Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CON-

VECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED

FAVORABLE AND HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,

KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH

AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE

POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW

THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A

DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM

OVER WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//

NNNN

Edited December 18, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression Celina is still pushing westwards and has brought heavy rains to Maurice and now La Reunion. The depression is very weak as waters are cool and shear is high. Significant redevelopment is not expected as it's remnants head towards southeastern Madagascar.

Edited December 20, 2007 by Somerset Squall