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Tropical Cyclone Gene


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The Southern Hemisphere is very active at the moment, with yet another tropical cyclone forming, this time in the South Pacific. The cyclone is located northeast of Suva, Fiji and is moving southwestward in response to a subtropical ridge to the southeast. A more westward turn is expected to begin late tommorrow as the ridge builds more to the south of the storm. Intensification will be limited for the first 24hrs due to land interaction with Suva, where 15P will bring very heavy rains which may cause problems with flooding. Thereafter, 15P will emerge south of the Islands and track westward over very warm waters and favourable upper level environment which should be more conducive for proper strengthening. It's difficult to say just how strong the storm will be when it reacts to these more favourable conditions but the JTWC have it at 55kts by 48hrs.

    Image of 15P (left of image):

    xxirg10sbbm.jpg

    Taken from CIMSS

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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    Now been named Tropical Storm Gene.

    About to make land fall in Figi's southern Island. Here is the Figi weather marine bulletin.

    Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE

    GENE

    ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:06pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008

    **CORRECTION TO NEXT ISSUE TIME.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

    A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE,

    KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND

    MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

    A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI

    GROUP.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17

    DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS

    AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND

    INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO

    HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS

    TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85

    KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED

    OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM

    OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

    ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU

    TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

    FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU,

    LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER

    ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65

    TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN

    WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING

    COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS

    OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH

    SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

    FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,

    HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE

    NORTHWESTERLY SWELL..

    The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

    EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

    SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN

    SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:

    WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

    DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY

    THUNDERSTORMS.

    THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED

    AROUND 11PM TONIGHT.

    Looks like this system is going to go straight through Nadi (where the Figi meterological service is based)

    Here is the Figi Public weather bulletin.

    Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE

    GENE

    ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:04pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

    A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE,

    KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND

    MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

    A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI

    GROUP.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17

    DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS

    AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND

    INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO

    HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS

    TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85

    KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED

    OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM

    OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

    ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU

    TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

    FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU,

    LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER

    ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65

    TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN

    WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING

    COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS

    OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH

    SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

    FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,

    HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE

    NORTHWESTERLY SWELL..

    The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

    EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

    SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN

    SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:

    WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

    DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY

    THUNDERSTORMS.

    THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED

    AROUND 2AM TOMORROW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Thanks for the update Cat 5.

    JTWC have Gene at 45kts in the latest advisory. Interaction with Fiji seems to be slowing development as conditions are otherwise favourable. Gene will continue southwestwards and will strengthen as it clears Fiji, in response to good equatorward outflow. Intensification will slow again after 24hrs as Gene enters an area of lower sea temps. Despite equatorward outflow being good, poleward outflow is pretty poor and this will ensure Gene only slowly strengthen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Storm Alert issued at 28 Jan, 2008 18:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Fiji

    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Vanuatu

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)

    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    New Caledonia

    probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)

    probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

    Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gene has been slowly intensifying over the last couple days asd it tracks westwards on the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the south. Although outflow is good, sea temps are marginal at best which explains the slow intensification. Any more intensification (Gene is currently at 60kts) will be slow to occur as sea temps won't be getting much warmer along Gene's predicted track, although outflow should remain good. Gene is expected to turn more southwestward beyond 12hrs as it moves into a weakness in the ridge created by a trough to the west. By the end of the forecast period, Gene will be very near New Caledonia so it will need to be watched.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Well, scrap that! Gene has put on a rapid burst of intensification and is now at 85kts, equivalent of a cat 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. New Caledonia are now in even more danger as the JTWC are calling for Gene to reach 105kts by the time it nears the island itself. Equatorward outflow has really helped the system and although waters aren't especially hot, continues strengthening is predicted, especially when the trough gets near which will enhance poleward outflow (something Gene has been lacking so far). The turn southwestwards in response to the weakness in the ridge caused by the trough is still forecasted, and a New Caledonian landfall or very near brush (remember that this would also be very bad as the strongest winds are near the eye wall) is likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Vanuatu

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

    New Caledonia

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    7 deaths already from this storm in Fiji:

    http://news.smh.com.au/fiji-mops-up-after-...80130-1oya.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gene has weakened slightly this morning, as outflow over the system isn't so good as it was yesterday. Poleward outflow as decreased and thus only slow intensification is forecasted by the JTWC after the small burst of rapid strengthening yesterday. Gene's track has changed too, a more southerly track is now anticipated as the subtropical ridge to the south of Gene builds further to the east. By the end of the forecast period, mid-lattitude westerlies should begin to weaken Gene, along with cooler waters. It's worth noting that the new forecast track takes it a little further away from New Caledonia, but heavy rains and damaging winds are still more than possible here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    its not very good about the deaths :wallbash:

    Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Vanuatu

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    New Caledonia

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    getting worse this one.

    Intense Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Vanuatu

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    New Caledonia

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    getting worse this one.

    You're certainly right there Cookie, Gene has now strengthened to 100kts (cat 3 on SS Scale) and poses a real threat to Vanuatu and later New Caledonia as your storm alert indicates. Thanks for the risk updates, they really are helpful.

    Gene may strengthen a little more in the next 24 hours as conditions remain favourable. Beyond 24hr, shear will begin to increase and outflow will decrease which should induce a gradual weakening trend as Gene tracks rather slowly southwestward or south-southwestward. Gene is moving around the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the southeast which will ensure that the cyclone remains heading generally south. I expect there could be more deaths from this cyclone, especially after the people it killed in Fiji when it was considerably weaker. Vanuatu is being pounded right now and although New Caledonia may miss the absolute worst Gene has to offer things could potentially become pretty bad here too. Best of luck to the inhabitants in the area, and I hope expenses and death are as limited as possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    wow - when I saw Gene go through Fiji I thought it would bottom out and cause no more problems. Instead it has intensified and is threating New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

    Both islands are close to my heart as we know Caledonia is Latin for Scotland and Vanuata used to be called the new Hebredies.

    Lets hope this Cyclone continues to veer Soutwards :unsure:

    Thanks for the continued update Somerset Squall & Cookie

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Thanks Cat5. Things are looking better for New Caledonia at least this morning, as Gene's current motion is southeast and is now expected to push southwards and weaken due to high shear and eventual extratropical transistion. Gene is currently back down at 90kts so the unfavourable environment is already having an effect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    wow - when I saw Gene go through Fiji I thought it would bottom out and cause no more problems. Instead it has intensified and is threating New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

    Both islands are close to my heart as we know Caledonia is Latin for Scotland and Vanuata used to be called the new Hebredies.

    Lets hope this Cyclone continues to veer Soutwards :)

    Thanks for the continued update Somerset Squall & Cookie

    I didnt know that about the Latin and new Hebrides who says who you don't learn something new every day

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Gene has weakened from its peak earlier on but even then it is still a pretty strong cyclone. Convection has slightly redeveloped in the NW quadrant where it had ben waning this morning but the system still looks sheared to me. Not heavily sheared but the outflow on the southern quadrant is pretty strongly suggestive that there is some shear nearby and the way the convetion weakened on that NW side also favors that idea as well. Probably slow weakening occuring now but it is slow as the main shear probably isn't over the system I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gene has continued to weaken and is now at 60kts. A lot of the deep convection has been sheared away by the moderate shear and Gene's poor outflow is contributing to the continued, slow weakening. Gene is forecast to continue pushing southeastwards in response to a subtropical ridge to the northeast and eventually accelerate and begin interacting with mid-lattitude westerlies, which should in turn induce extratropical transition beginning in about 36 hours time.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Looks like Gene might head towards NZ, but there will be high pressure over the country by then. What's the chances of ex-TC Gene bringing rain to the North Island?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Looks like Gene might head towards NZ, but there will be high pressure over the country by then. What's the chances of ex-TC Gene bringing rain to the North Island?

    I can't be entirely sure but it looks more likely than Gene will pass to the northeast, probably providing little if any rainfall. Gene is down to 55kts this morning and extratropical transition will begin within the next couple days. It's current track has been switching between south and southeast but a more east-southeast turn is forecast once it gets to extratropical stage as it interacts with a mid-lattitude flow. So at the moment prospects for rain from this system look bleak for NZ by the looks of things. As ever with the weather, things may change though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear as eased somewhat and outflow has improved a little for Gene, which has halted the weakening for now, as Gene is still at 55kts. There is still a rugged eye and deep convection has increased during today. However, Gene will resume the weakening trend as shear increases again in the next 12hrs and the storm will also be passing over cooler waters. Extratropical transition will begin in 24hrs and is expected to be complete in 48hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    LOL- don't know what's happening there :lol:

    Surprisingly, Gene is still at 55kts this morning, and still looks fairly decent on satellite imagery despite being so far south over cooler waters. The end is still in sight for Gene though as extratropical transition is nearing (forecasted to begin in 24hrs) due to these cooler waters and an increase in shear.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Going to miss NZ but I think the wind over the upper North Island is going to be increased as she tracks by. I wouldn't fancy being on Raoul Island at the moment though!

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