Tropical Cyclone Gene

[Somerset Squall]

The Southern Hemisphere is very active at the moment, with yet another tropical cyclone forming, this time in the South Pacific. The cyclone is located northeast of Suva, Fiji and is moving southwestward in response to a subtropical ridge to the southeast. A more westward turn is expected to begin late tommorrow as the ridge builds more to the south of the storm. Intensification will be limited for the first 24hrs due to land interaction with Suva, where 15P will bring very heavy rains which may cause problems with flooding. Thereafter, 15P will emerge south of the Islands and track westward over very warm waters and favourable upper level environment which should be more conducive for proper strengthening. It's difficult to say just how strong the storm will be when it reacts to these more favourable conditions but the JTWC have it at 55kts by 48hrs.

Image of 15P (left of image):

Taken from CIMSS

[Cookie]

gee wizz, their like buses its quite for a week or so then we get 3 and once!

thanks for the updates

[Cat 5]

Now been named Tropical Storm Gene.

About to make land fall in Figi's southern Island. Here is the Figi weather marine bulletin.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE

GENE

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:06pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008

**CORRECTION TO NEXT ISSUE TIME.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE,

KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND

MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI

GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17

DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS

AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND

INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO

HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS

TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85

KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED

OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM

OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU

TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU,

LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER

ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65

TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN

WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING

COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS

OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH

SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,

HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE

NORTHWESTERLY SWELL..

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY

THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 11PM TONIGHT.

Looks like this system is going to go straight through Nadi (where the Figi meterological service is based)

Here is the Figi Public weather bulletin.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE

GENE

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:04pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE,

KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND

MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI

GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17

DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS

AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND

INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO

HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS

TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85

KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED

OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM

OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU

TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU,

LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER

ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65

TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN

WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING

COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS

OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH

SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,

HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE

NORTHWESTERLY SWELL..

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY

THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 2AM TOMORROW.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the update Cat 5.

JTWC have Gene at 45kts in the latest advisory. Interaction with Fiji seems to be slowing development as conditions are otherwise favourable. Gene will continue southwestwards and will strengthen as it clears Fiji, in response to good equatorward outflow. Intensification will slow again after 24hrs as Gene enters an area of lower sea temps. Despite equatorward outflow being good, poleward outflow is pretty poor and this will ensure Gene only slowly strengthen.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 28 Jan, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Fiji

probability for TS is 80% currently

Vanuatu

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)

probability for TS is 60% currently

Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

New Caledonia

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Gene has been slowly intensifying over the last couple days asd it tracks westwards on the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the south. Although outflow is good, sea temps are marginal at best which explains the slow intensification. Any more intensification (Gene is currently at 60kts) will be slow to occur as sea temps won't be getting much warmer along Gene's predicted track, although outflow should remain good. Gene is expected to turn more southwestward beyond 12hrs as it moves into a weakness in the ridge created by a trough to the west. By the end of the forecast period, Gene will be very near New Caledonia so it will need to be watched.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, scrap that! Gene has put on a rapid burst of intensification and is now at 85kts, equivalent of a cat 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. New Caledonia are now in even more danger as the JTWC are calling for Gene to reach 105kts by the time it nears the island itself. Equatorward outflow has really helped the system and although waters aren't especially hot, continues strengthening is predicted, especially when the trough gets near which will enhance poleward outflow (something Gene has been lacking so far). The turn southwestwards in response to the weakness in the ridge caused by the trough is still forecasted, and a New Caledonian landfall or very near brush (remember that this would also be very bad as the strongest winds are near the eye wall) is likely.

[Cookie]

Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vanuatu

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

[Somerset Squall]

7 deaths already from this storm in Fiji:

http://news.smh.com.au/fiji-mops-up-after-...80130-1oya.html

[Somerset Squall]

Gene has weakened slightly this morning, as outflow over the system isn't so good as it was yesterday. Poleward outflow as decreased and thus only slow intensification is forecasted by the JTWC after the small burst of rapid strengthening yesterday. Gene's track has changed too, a more southerly track is now anticipated as the subtropical ridge to the south of Gene builds further to the east. By the end of the forecast period, mid-lattitude westerlies should begin to weaken Gene, along with cooler waters. It's worth noting that the new forecast track takes it a little further away from New Caledonia, but heavy rains and damaging winds are still more than possible here.

[Cookie]

its not very good about the deaths

Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vanuatu

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Edited January 31, 2008 by cookie

[Cookie]

getting worse this one.

Intense Tropical Cyclone GENE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vanuatu

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

[Somerset Squall]

getting worse this one.

You're certainly right there Cookie, Gene has now strengthened to 100kts (cat 3 on SS Scale) and poses a real threat to Vanuatu and later New Caledonia as your storm alert indicates. Thanks for the risk updates, they really are helpful.

Gene may strengthen a little more in the next 24 hours as conditions remain favourable. Beyond 24hr, shear will begin to increase and outflow will decrease which should induce a gradual weakening trend as Gene tracks rather slowly southwestward or south-southwestward. Gene is moving around the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the southeast which will ensure that the cyclone remains heading generally south. I expect there could be more deaths from this cyclone, especially after the people it killed in Fiji when it was considerably weaker. Vanuatu is being pounded right now and although New Caledonia may miss the absolute worst Gene has to offer things could potentially become pretty bad here too. Best of luck to the inhabitants in the area, and I hope expenses and death are as limited as possible.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cat 5]

wow - when I saw Gene go through Fiji I thought it would bottom out and cause no more problems. Instead it has intensified and is threating New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

Both islands are close to my heart as we know Caledonia is Latin for Scotland and Vanuata used to be called the new Hebredies.

Lets hope this Cyclone continues to veer Soutwards :unsure:

Thanks for the continued update Somerset Squall & Cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks Cat5. Things are looking better for New Caledonia at least this morning, as Gene's current motion is southeast and is now expected to push southwards and weaken due to high shear and eventual extratropical transistion. Gene is currently back down at 90kts so the unfavourable environment is already having an effect.

[Cookie]

wow - when I saw Gene go through Fiji I thought it would bottom out and cause no more problems. Instead it has intensified and is threating New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

Both islands are close to my heart as we know Caledonia is Latin for Scotland and Vanuata used to be called the new Hebredies.

Lets hope this Cyclone continues to veer Soutwards

Thanks for the continued update Somerset Squall & Cookie

I didnt know that about the Latin and new Hebrides who says who you don't learn something new every day

[kold weather]

Gene has weakened from its peak earlier on but even then it is still a pretty strong cyclone. Convection has slightly redeveloped in the NW quadrant where it had ben waning this morning but the system still looks sheared to me. Not heavily sheared but the outflow on the southern quadrant is pretty strongly suggestive that there is some shear nearby and the way the convetion weakened on that NW side also favors that idea as well. Probably slow weakening occuring now but it is slow as the main shear probably isn't over the system I guess.

[Somerset Squall]

Gene has continued to weaken and is now at 60kts. A lot of the deep convection has been sheared away by the moderate shear and Gene's poor outflow is contributing to the continued, slow weakening. Gene is forecast to continue pushing southeastwards in response to a subtropical ridge to the northeast and eventually accelerate and begin interacting with mid-lattitude westerlies, which should in turn induce extratropical transition beginning in about 36 hours time.

[J07]

Looks like Gene might head towards NZ, but there will be high pressure over the country by then. What's the chances of ex-TC Gene bringing rain to the North Island?

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like Gene might head towards NZ, but there will be high pressure over the country by then. What's the chances of ex-TC Gene bringing rain to the North Island?

I can't be entirely sure but it looks more likely than Gene will pass to the northeast, probably providing little if any rainfall. Gene is down to 55kts this morning and extratropical transition will begin within the next couple days. It's current track has been switching between south and southeast but a more east-southeast turn is forecast once it gets to extratropical stage as it interacts with a mid-lattitude flow. So at the moment prospects for rain from this system look bleak for NZ by the looks of things. As ever with the weather, things may change though.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear as eased somewhat and outflow has improved a little for Gene, which has halted the weakening for now, as Gene is still at 55kts. There is still a rugged eye and deep convection has increased during today. However, Gene will resume the weakening trend as shear increases again in the next 12hrs and the storm will also be passing over cooler waters. Extratropical transition will begin in 24hrs and is expected to be complete in 48hrs.

[Cookie]

Omg gene is about to fall off the edge of the map!!

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- don't know what's happening there :lol:

Surprisingly, Gene is still at 55kts this morning, and still looks fairly decent on satellite imagery despite being so far south over cooler waters. The end is still in sight for Gene though as extratropical transition is nearing (forecasted to begin in 24hrs) due to these cooler waters and an increase in shear.

[Cookie]

was good knowing you gene!

[J07]

Going to miss NZ but I think the wind over the upper North Island is going to be increased as she tracks by. I wouldn't fancy being on Raoul Island at the moment though!