Tropical Cyclone Pancho

[kold weather]

Well heres another system upgraded from Invest 97S, I'm sure someone else will put up an image of the ssytem soon enough!

Anyway looks pretty good for now, some slight banding on the western side with an inflow evident. Deep convection aklso over the center all suggestive of a strengthenintg trend. Models indicate shear increasing as it tracks ESE around 48-72hrs however to be blunt the models are horrific at shear forecasting even in the very high data Atlantic basin and so the models are probably going to be even worse for this part of the world. For now shear doesn't look too high and heat content more then high enough for strengthening.

Will have another look tomorrow probably at this system after the UK snow threat finally eases!

[Mesosphere]

here's some images of the Cyclone :-

Info :

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INFORMATION

Southern Indian Ocean - 0530 GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

System 97S / 26S

Position 11.8S 101.6E

Location 275 miles E of Cocos Island

Potential for tropical cyclone development within 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD

Excellent atmospheric conditions will allow this disturbance to build into a tropical cyclone. JTWC forecasts the system to move west; BOM Australia disagrees and takes 97S south to southeast.

NRL / Monterey has classified this system as tropical cyclone 26S as of 1200 GMT

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I noticed this cyclone this morning while looking at Indian Oceon Satellite imagery ,

I was expecting this

Edited March 24, 2008 by Calum

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, the very active South Indian tropical cyclone season continues. Just as Lola dissipates, 26S forms and as Calum said it was quite clear this morning that this one was going to be upgraded- certainly looks very healthy at the moment. 26S is currently near Christmas Island and is pushing southeastwards. JTWC forecast 26S to begin moving in a more southerly direction soon in response to a steering ridge to the east. Conditions are favourable for further development as KW says, anf JTWC have the cyclone at 65kts by 48hrs time. This may possibly be a little conservative but we'll have to wait and see.

I suspect BOM will upgrade the system later today, it's name will be Pancho.

[Mesosphere]

I suspect BOM will upgrade the system later today, it's name will be Pancho.

I agree with you there Somerset Squall , they will probaly upgrade this system

Latest Sat Image :-

[Mesosphere]

Storm Centered Loop :-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

Some more Info :

AT 241200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S

103.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD

TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45

KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Somerset Squall]

26S has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Pancho. Convection is wrapping nicely around the centre and the initial intensity is 50kts. Pancho is expected to continue strengthening under favourable conditions of warm sea temps, low shear and good outflow. Beyond 36hrs, ocean heat content decreases on the southward track and shear is also expected to increase which will induce weakening. JTWC expect Pancho to peak at 65kts before the anticipated weakening. The southerly track is anticipiated due to a steering ridge to the east influencing the storm. JTWC and BOM largely agree on the track, and Pancho shouldn't effect land unless any major forecast changes occur.

[kold weather]

Well I've not got much more to add to what SS has already said, this should be a fairly easy system to forecast, slow strengthening for the next 24-36hrs followed by a slow weakening as it gets into less favorable conditions beyond that.

Got a pretty decent structure though not the best I've ever seen, got some fairly deep convection near the center as well.

[Cookie]

I never noticed this before but its only moving at 5mph is that slow or normal?

[Somerset Squall]

I never noticed this before but its only moving at 5mph is that slow or normal?

Pancho is moving fairly slowly yes, about half the average speed. Well, I don't now what strictly would be average but I'd imagine it would be around 10kt (11mph) or around that. Not unusual, it just means the steering ridge to the east isn't having a particularly strong influence on Pancho. The only unusual thing regarding track speed would be if a cyclone remained stationary for several days which doesn't often happen- but we've had an example of this this year: Jokwe.

Pancho has intensified a little more and is now at 55kts. The forecast is generally the same but JTWC now predict a peak of 70kts before unfavourable conditions begin a weakening trend.

EDIT: the thing regarding track speed is just my opinion, don't take the 10kt thing as fact, it's just something I've noticed.

Edited March 26, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks mate.

[Mesosphere]

Latest Sat Images showing the system :-

[Somerset Squall]

Pancho has further intensified this morning and as Callum's images show, the storm now has an eye. Intensity has been increased to 70kts. Pancho has about another 24hrs in which to strengthen; JTWC now call a peak of 80kts. Sea temps will then decrease and shear will increase on the southward track, which will induce weakening beyond 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Close-up image of Pancho from NAVY/NRL

Looking better all the time!

Edited March 26, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

12z satellite images both IR as Pancho is now in darkness.

[kold weather]

Pancho is looking good as of now, nice stable eye presently with some decent deep convective coverage on the southern side esp, also very good inflow on that southern side as well as decent outflow on the northern side. However there is a slight limiting factor in that the northern quadrant isn't quite as sizeable with reagrds to convection, though there is still some deep convection on the northern eyewall where I'd guess the highest winds would be found.

Still it does look like its strengthening, it could close up the eyewall a little better but I think the estimate of 85kt 1 min sustained winds are about right based on what I've seen of this system so far.

Edited March 26, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

As KW said, intensity has been raised to 85kts, making it a category 2 on the SS scale. BOM have upped the winds to 80kts (10 minute average) with is a strong category 3 on the Australian scale. Pancho has about another 18-24hrs to strengthen, and JTWC are calling for a peak of 90kt though I reckon it may attain 100kts if it makes the most of the impressive outflow and low shear conditions. The cyclone is pushing generally southward and has sped up this afternoon. It's worth noting that the west coast of Australia may be at risk of some heavy rain from outer rainbands as Pancho gets near. As has been forecast throughout, Pancho is expected to weaken beyond 24hrs due to stronger shear and low sea temps.

[kold weather]

Yeah it may make it to 100kts though sat estimates for the last 6hrs have held steady at 85kts and the eyewall still looks a little weak on one side of the system and this hasn't closed yet, the eye has also become a tiny bit more irregular than earlier this afternoon though to be fair its still a healthy system..

Edited March 26, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

its good to see it doing well. nice images,

[Somerset Squall]

Pancho has intensified to 95kts, a high end cat 2 on SS scale and a cat 4 on the Australian scale. It looks now though that weakening may be underway as the eye is rather rugged in appearance and shear has also increased over the system. Cooler waters, continued shear and dry air await to the south of Pancho, which will cause Pancho to weaken pretty quickly as it continues southwards between a steering ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Extratropical transition is expected to begin by 48hrs according to the JTWC.

[kold weather]

Yeah it looks like its weakening presently, the eye as you say SS has become somewhat filled in and rugged suggestive of shear increasing, also its worth noting the southern eyewall is once again open after closing up during its strengthening phase during the overnight hours, where it did look like a pretty impressive system with its small eye and inner core.

Should continue to weaken steadily over the next 12-24hrs then a much more rapid decay as it also hits the lower heat content waters.

[Mesosphere]

Latest Satellite Image showing the system :-

[Somerset Squall]

Pancho has continued to weaken and is now at 70kts. Pancho is heading more southeastwards now in response to an approaching trough from the west which has also caused the shear. Drier air along with the low sea temps should soon start extratropical transition with the JTWC now expect to be complete by 48hrs.

[kold weather]

Yeah if anything Pancho is decaying even faster then was progged probably because the trough to the south which is causing the system to branch off much more to the east is stronger than was progged and therefore is causing far greater shear on the system then was expected and so the system is weakening a good bit sooner then was expected as well.

[Cookie]

thanks again for the great updates guys