bets on warming or temperature plateau on BBC

[Essan]

Originally the Hadley centre said I think last year, that they didn't expect temperatures to rise for the next year or so. A new study, just released, predicts cooling or levelling off for a great deal longer - link in another thread.

This prediction is made on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation changing phase. Based on this, they predict roughly a decade of cooler temperatures. If you then add into this the other predictions and expectations of cooling relating to the PDO also flipping to it's negative phase, then the cooling could be larger or longer than this latest study estimates. That's not even taking into account the uncertainty of the Sun and whether or not cycle 24 will be large or small. The longer cycle 23 keeps going, the longer the delay in cycle 24 getting going, the greater chance there is, it will be moderate to small in amplitude. Add onto this the predicted (by Hathaway) very quiet cycle 25 expected, then I think there's more than an evens chance we will continue to see temperatures fall.

All of which may well happen - and does not in any way whatsoever mean AGW isn't happening (just means some popular predictions will be wrong - but some of us have been saying that for years )

The big question is what happens when natural variation shifts back to a warming mode .....

[jethro]

All of which may well happen - and does not in any way whatsoever mean AGW isn't happening (just means some popular predictions will be wrong - but some of us have been saying that for years )

The big question is what happens when natural variation shifts back to a warming mode .....

Agreed, I'm not for one minute suggesting otherwise. However, the CO2 over-rides everything bandwagon must at the very least have wobbly wheels by now. If negative phases of natural drivers can over-ride AGW warming, then it stands to reason positive phases must have contributed considerably to warming. Can't have one without the other, can you? If one cools, the other's got to warm.

So, that being a given, the expected warming when these phases switch positive again, probably won't be as drastic as we're led to believe. How can it be, given CO2's diminishing action, the more you add, the less effect it has and the fact that a large portion of the warming thus far, being related to these natural drivers. I don't expect the upswing in the future to suddenly compensate and over-ride the next 10, 20, 30 years (or however many it turns out to be) of cooling.

Interesting times ahead me thinks, especially if the Sun turns as quiet as some predict.

[biffvernon]

Disingenuous means - slightly dishonest(Cambridge dictionary)

Yes, I picked the word because it meant what I wanted it to mean. When you said "This prediction is made on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation changing phase. Based on this, they predict roughly a decade of cooler temperatures" you did not go on to say that the authors of the paper were only talking about a decade of cooling and them even more warming would continue, bringing things into line with the previously published IPCC scenarios. Nor did you point out that the cooling only applied to the atmosphere and not to the whole ocean-atmosphere system. These omissions could have misled those who don't know any better so your statement could correctly be described as disingenuous, or 'slightly dishonest' if you prefer.

[jethro]

Yes, I picked the word because it meant what I wanted it to mean. When you said "This prediction is made on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation changing phase. Based on this, they predict roughly a decade of cooler temperatures" you did not go on to say that the authors of the paper were only talking about a decade of cooling and them even more warming would continue, bringing things into line with the previously published IPCC scenarios. Nor did you point out that the cooling only applied to the atmosphere and not to the whole ocean-atmosphere system. These omissions could have misled those who don't know any better so your statement could correctly be described as disingenuous, or 'slightly dishonest' if you prefer.

Or perhaps I quite rightly stated as the report said "a decade of cooler temperatures" together with instructions of the link for the full article being in another thread. Perhaps I should have cut and pasted the entire article into this thread? I made it quite clear it was available, it's also clearly obvious that from the few sentences I quoted, that there was a fuller article to read. You obviously followed the instructions to the other thread and read the entire article, I'm quite certain others are more than capable of doing the same. Hardly slightly dishonest. Crystal clear and totally above board.

I appreciate cooling for any period goes against the grain of the accepted AGW view. It goes against the grain of the consensus of the sum total of our knowledge to date being all we need to know in order to reach a conclusion which should silence all dissenters. However, you shouldn't shoot the messenger.

I think it's about time you and I agreed to disagree.

[Bobby]

I myself have no problem with the recent study saying that the next 10 years may see no warming, due to natural cycles (I haven't checked the science though, so I don't know how accurate it is). There are always natural cycles and they may be enough to offset the human induced warming effects for a period.

None of it invalidates that human activity has a strong warming effect on the Earth however. And there is still no evidence of any cooldown yet.

[Gray-Wolf]

When talking of deep water currents and their warming don't forget that they have the '40's to 80's' cooling/plateauing event as in the air temps. If we be 100yrs behind times with deep ocean currents then we have the turn of the 1900's onwards arriving back at the surface now and up to the 1930's we had quite a steep warming curve.

Not only can natural cycles augment the rate of warming but 'old' warming has it's own crafty feedback to take into account. I do wonder at the erosion of the northern ice and the ever increasing penetration of ocean currents into the arctic basin........