Day 16 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Day 16 looks like being an active day and SPC Could Upgrade to Moderate, possible Tornadoes although this system does not look as strong as Saturdays. Kansas, Oklahoma look to be the best shot at Tubes.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1149 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE MID MS

VALLEY...

UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN

IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE INTO THE AZ/NM BY TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS

NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS RATHER DRY AND STABLE

TODAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY

TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY DAY2.

...ERN MO/SERN IA/WRN IL...

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...IN

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY

PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE STL AREA.

INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FEEDING INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF

CLUSTER MAY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER

PARTS OF MO/SOUTHEAST IA/WESTERN IL. LARGE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE

MAIN THREAT.

...KS/MO/OK/TX...

A RATHER STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SURGING

SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS

SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. THIS FRONT

WILL LIKELY LIE FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY 21-00Z...WHERE

IT WILL INTERSECT SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.

GIVEN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT/DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE

VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG FROM EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO INTO TX. A

STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL

LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP MIXING

WEAKEN INHIBITION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY

ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT OVER

CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL

SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING

WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT

GREATER OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR

IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN

UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EXTENT OF MOISTURE

RETURN AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

...WEST TX OVERNIGHT...

MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...AND WILL RESULT IN A

RETREATING DRYLINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST TX. SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS AFTER DARK...AND

CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS IN THIS REGION.

Paul Sherman

[stevestorms]

Hi Paul and team, we have spent 2 nights in Aberlene Texas I dont think we are moving a huge distance tomorrow Tuesday but certainly NE of here, Saturday was such a let down for us buried in 90ft trees and a thick haze reduced visibility to nothing, in storms yes, but no Bananas :-( ugggg time is running out fingers and toes crossed for the next 2 days . good luck chap

[Roger J Smith]

As Paul mentions, this system is less explosive but it does start from a similar set-up to Saturday across Kansas.

Best target zone for tornado development may be east of Wichita to OKC in southeast KS and northeast to central OK. Severe storms also possible across large sections of TX but these may be large complexes of hail and heavy rain where any tornadoes would be rain-wrapped.

The Texas action may kick off rather early with one peak of energy in the late overnight around 12z.

[dogs32]

Any of the teams get any great lightning shots...especially at night yet..(recently)...because Im envious......Its like trying to

get blood out of a stone here for lightning at night ...

[Dan G]

Where are you headed Paul? I'd take Shawnee OK, east of OKC, to bank on isolated storms in better chase country than the higher T-risk in MO.

[Stu]

LOL there was a reason that I chased (but still busted) in Kansas yesterday as I wanted to over night in Salina ready to drop South and East (Kansas)

[Nick F]

Hi all, we are currently waking up in the Super 8 in Ardmore, OK. We will probably hold tight in this area for intiation later, looks like the cold front and dry line triple point will move across this area this afternoon ... so hopefully won't have to move far. Bit grey and cloudy here atm but hopefully should clear in next few hours. Already some other chaser vehicles outside the hotel.

SPC have upgraded to a MODERATE risk for this area, 10% risk of tornadoes:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0736 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND

PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO AND WRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO

THE MID MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E THIS PERIOD...WITH FURTHER EVOLUTION

TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE SRN MEMBER...NOW CLOSING OFF OVER

SRN UT...SHOULD DROP S INTO AZ LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING E INTO SRN

NM EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NRN MEMBER NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD

REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS WILL

CONTINUE E/SE TO A WRN MI/SE MO/NE TX/SW TX/SE NM LINE BY 12Z

WEDNESDAY. S OF THE FRONT...DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM N CNTRL

OK INTO S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY. THE FEATURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN

BY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK AND N TX...AND MAY RETREAT W ACROSS

CNTRL AND S TX TONIGHT.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO MID MS VLY...

BLENDED PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25/ NOW IN PLACE FROM

SRN OK SWD INTO CNTRL AND E TX. BROAD SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT

CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO SE KS AND SRN/CNTRL MO

THROUGH THIS EVENING. COUPLED WITH MODERATE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW

AHEAD OF WRN STATES TROUGH AND STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP WILL YIELD

A THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED

SVR STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING UPON DETAILS OF CONVECTION

INITIATION RELATED TO STOUT EML CAP...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND

STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CORRIDORS

OF FAIRLY CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY AMIDST MORE WIDELY SCTD EVENTS.

SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF MO AND AR INTO

IL...WRN KY AND PERHAPS WRN TN THROUGH THIS AFTN...ALONG ERN EDGE OF

ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE

MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM

DEVELOPMENT. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING

ENHANCE LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER/ POSSIBLY SVR

STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND COULD EVOLVE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY THROUGH

THIS EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS INVOF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT... INITIALLY

FROM SE KS/WRN MO INTO CNTRL OK...AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRY LINE

INTO N TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY BREACHED. STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING

BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH

SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND

2000 J/KG AS FAR N AS SE KS.

ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN/BECOME

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM TX/OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY AS BROAD

CURRENT OF SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT...40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW PERSISTS

AHEAD OF WRN TROUGH. COUPLED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND QUALITY

OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND

BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. A THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR

TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONG-LIVED/MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT

MIGHT FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.

[Paul]

In the spirit of last week, shouldn't you drive 100 miles down the road and then return later just for fun

[Stu_London]

In the spirit of last week, shouldn't you drive 100 miles down the road and then return later just for fun

If I recall Paul, it was more like 150 - then a further 25 miles for somewhere decent for Lunch - then back to where you started.

Winky - Smiley!

[NL]

MD issued for severe potential WW. #902

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0937 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN TX...NWRN LA...SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131437Z - 131530Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY OVER NORTHEAST TX TODAY...SPREADING INTO PARTS OF AR/LA

THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WATCH SOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM

CENTRAL TX INTO AR/TN. THIS IS IN REGION OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW

LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG EDGE OF LOW LEVEL JET. MORNING SOUNDINGS

SHOWED VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED

CAPE. RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE WILL FURTHER

DESTABILIZE REGION AND LEAD TO INCREASED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.

MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE

HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOON.

Tornado warning out for NE Missouri (Misery).

TornadoWarning - 13/1530Z

WFUS53 KLSX 131502

TORLSX

MOC205-131530-

O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0027.080513T1502Z-080513T1530Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1002 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1000 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES

NORTH OF MAUD...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF SHELBINA...MOVING EAST AT

26 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SHELBINA...

SHELBYVILLE...

EMDEN..

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image.

[ian cameron]

We have just had breakfast in IHOP were our server was called Stormie thats got to be a good omen

We shall keep you all updated through the day to our progress

Ian

[Paul]

Good luck mate, did you get your camera back?

[ian cameron]

not yet still waiting for a quite day when were near by should have it by the weekend hopefuly

[Paul]

Cool, fingers crossed they haven't sold it by then!!

[ian cameron]

well a lazy start but we are confident we will bag something today

Ian

[Roger J Smith]

Not a robust system today, and dynamics weakening, but I feel that one or two severe storms will develop along the front in northeast OK most likely. The TX field is a bit broken up but not out of play by any means. Looks good for tomorrow around Brownwood to Junction as the fronts begin to back-door to southwest tonight.

Would be watching radar around OKC for develpments just north or east and heading towards Pawnee and Pawhuska. This is not a lot different from the day last week with the line of cells in se KS and the later tornadic cells in OK, but air mass over se KS is less buoyant today. The best solar heating at the moment seems to be around OKC and south of SPS.

Fingers crossed that various chasers will score later on.

[NL]

MD #903

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX...SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131825Z - 132100Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX. A

WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR ICT...WITH COLD FRONT

TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OK. A DRYLINE IS MIXING

EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WESTERN OK...WITH THE INTERSECTION OF

THE DRYLINE AND FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN

COMANCHE/GRADY/MCCLAIN COUNTIES OK IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 18Z

SOUNDING FROM FWD SHOWS THAT CAP IS ERODING ACROSS THE WARM

SECTOR...AND MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS BACK ALONG THE

DRYLINE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR SOON ALONG

THESE BOUNDARIES. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND VERY STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND WILL

LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER

VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN

DUE TO RATHER WEAK 1-3 KM AGL WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW

LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES EARLY IN

LIFECYCLE OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.

[Nick F]

Currently in Sulphur, OK, maybe going to blast west towards Duncan on route 7. Clearer skies further west with a pronounced cumulus field - likely area to see intiation in ahead of cold front next few hours. MD issued for this area:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0903.html

Though there is some cumulus shooting up above us atm too through the breaks in the stratocumulus.

[NL]

Tornado watch issued.

OKZ000-TXZ000-140200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 311

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS

TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG AND

LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS

NRN TX/SRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE

AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD

IN NRN TX. MDT/STG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS

INCLUDING THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

Teams position and destination.

[Roger J Smith]

Something is trying to fire between Pawhuska and the KS border but it's running out of time ... lines of towering cumulus showing up around where I think the NW guys are southwest of OKC, also looking a bit marginal, but that area won't run out of fuel as quickly as the area further north will.

[NL]

Cells just popped up in the last 15 mins east of Oklahoma city.

[ian cameron]

we are sitting on the dry line cold front intersect with the spc predicting baseball size hail or bigger not to far from our location so we are still hopeful of some action this evening initiation has taken for ever today but fingers crossed

[Roger J Smith]

The NW team might do well to move south as large cells are developing south of Wichita Falls.

The storms in ne OK and se KS seem to have just made it to severe levels but don't presently look like supercells. South of Wichita Falls the action does look more potentially severe.

[Paul Sherman]

Just 2 words for today

" BUSTOLA CRAPOLA"

Sat on the blinking dryline all day with the threat of armageddon and nothing happened................zilch

Not even a raindrop hit the screen, so we head south and west for a lightning fest and the storms shrivels.

I Blame IAN :lol:

Paul S