Typhoon Halong

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 05W has formed in the West Pacific, to the west of the Phillipines over the South China sea. The new system is tracking northeastwards in response to a steering ridge to the east, the same one that is steering 04W. This motion is expected to continue and therefore 05W is expected to make landfall in Northern Luzon around 36hrs, where it s likely to bring some high rainfall totals- so flooding may be a risk. Thereafter, 05W is forecasted to accelerate in a similar path to what 04W is doing currently.

Intensity wise, JTWC expect a peak of 50kts. 05W is likely to strengthen over the warm waters of the South China sea prior to hitting Luzon. After crossing Luzon (which will probably just halt intensification rather than weaken the system) conditions become far less favourable with higher shear and sharply dropping sea temps, which should induce extratropical transition by 72hrs, which JTWC expect to be completed by 96hrs.

Satellite image:

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 05W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

[tinybill]

hi just looked at this site if it builds at the moment Tokyo is in for a direct hit

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/main.html

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 05W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Halong, with an initial intensity of 45kts. Halong is looking better than it did yesterday with better banding and deeper, more widespread convection over the centre. Could be quite a rainmaker over Luzon. JTWC expect two peaks of 50kts- one prior to landfall in Luzon and one after landfall in the very warm waters in the phillipine sea. Outflow will also be inhanced as Halong leaves Luzon before interaction with a trough induces extratropical transition which is forecasted to be complete by 96hrs.

[Cookie]

its also been named as well Tropical Storm HALONG

Tropical Storm HALONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert Cookie.

Halong has continued to intensify a bit more rapidly this evening, and is now at 50kts. JTWC now expect a peak of 65kts, making Halong a minimal typhoon before it becomes extratropical. I now think that Halong has a fair chance of becoming a typhoon as the storm really looks better on satellite imagery, with neat banding and a tight centre.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Halong has become a typhoon this morning, with sustained winds increasing to 65kts. Typhoon Halong is bearing down on Luzon now, where it may cause more problems than first thought. Rain initially was the biggest factor but now some pretty lively winds are likely too. Halong's passage over Luzon will temporarily weaken the typhoon back to a tropical storm but it is then expected to regain typhoon status east of Luzon over the very warm waters of the Phillipine sea- JTWC expect a peak of 70kts here. By 48hrs, extratropical transition will begin as cooler drier air begins to effect the typhoon and Halong also tracks over cooler waters. ET is expected to be pretty quick as Halong rushes north-northeastward, with it being complete by 72hrs. Halong as potential to be a fairly large extratropical storm midweek in the vicinity of Japan, as Tinybill says.

[kold weather]

Yep not surprising to see it strengthen into a typhoon, there has been a good wrapping occuring over the last 24hrs with this system and overnight it developed an eye which doesn't appear to have been the most stable thing ever but is a good sign that we have got a 65-70kt typhoon which is still enough to cause some decent damage depending on the exact place it hits.

[Cookie]

latest update

Tropical Storm HALONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Halong has weakened more than expected in it's journey over Luzon. For a while, the majority of deep convection dissapeared but has now started to redevelop now Halong is back over water. Intensity has decreased to 45kts, but re-strengthening is expected in the short term as warm sea temps couple with low shear to provide favourable conditions for that re-intensification. Beyond 24hrs, shear will increase on the northeastward track, and sea temps will gradually fall to which will induce weakening. Extratropical transition is forecasted by the JTWC to begin at 36hrs, and be complete by 48hrs as the storm makes full transition to a cold cored system and becomes absorbed into the baroclinic zone.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 18 May, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HALONG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for TS is 55% currently

[kold weather]

Yep convection is starting to re-develop but Luzon did a big number on the system, the island just tore apart the convective shape of the system...however whilst the convection was pretty much destroyed the circulation still appears to be quite evident and thus convection does appear to be re-developing slowly but surely as the system responds to the sharp increase in heat content over the water compared to land.

[Somerset Squall]

Halong has continued to slowly re-organise. However, extratropical transition has now begun and is expected to be complete in 24hrs. Due to good diffluence ahead of the storm, Halong has the potential to remain strong after ET. Halong will pass southeast of Japan as an extratropical system.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have issued their final warning on Halong as it is completing the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Continued very strong shear and low sea temps have caused most of the deep convection to dissipate over the last 12 hours.

You can see in this image here just how strong the shear is over Halong:

Taken from CIMSS

This is fairly typical at this lattitude as this time of year. Halong has gone beyond the point of return so the 5th tropical cyclone of te 2008 West Pacific season is no more, at least in a tropical sense.

[Cookie]

thanks for the image mate.

B) @ point of no return, imagine if it did come back though

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the image mate.

@ point of no return, imagine if it did come back though

LOL- egg on face springs to mind, it really would take a miracle though (not for me to have egg on my face B) )!

[Cookie]

Im sure their was one last year that you said had had it and it hadn't!!

[Cookie]

I think you where right mate. things have gone all quiet again!!

[Somerset Squall]

Im sure their was one last year that you said had had it and it hadn't!!

Yes, we that's the thing about tropical cyclones, they always keep us guessing . Yup, a bit of a lull at the moment but May usually is the quietest month tropical cyclone wise worldwide anyway. The East Pacific season has officially started (but no storms as yet) and of course the Atlantic season officially start 1st June so hopefully it won't be long before we have a storm to montior. Of course, the West Pacific season is well underway too.

[Cookie]

yup hope their will be more soon