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Hurricane Elida


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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Seeing as no one else has I thought I would start a thread for Tropical Storm Elida which has recently formed.

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 120838

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008

    200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

    SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316

    ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED

    INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT

    35 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS

    ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF

    THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING. BOTH

    DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION

    WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN

    48 HOURS. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO

    SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE

    STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

    CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR

    GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.

    THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND

    INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.

    THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN

    THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE

    NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS

    REFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. AS A

    RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE

    AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE

    GFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS.

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed, we have the sixth tropical cyclone of the East Pacific season. Invest 98E rapidly gained organsation over night and TD6 formed, which has since strengthened to Tropical Storm Elida. Elida is currently at 40kts, and further strengthening is predicted, with Elida expected to become a hurricane in 48hrs time. Some very warm, even hot waters lie to the west of Elida and that is where she's heading. There is a little shear over Elida at the moment, but this is is expected to ease. Intrestingly from NHC:

    IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION

    GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION

    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    which with lower shear and waters of 32C isn't out of the question. It would be very ironic if 2008's Elida behaved like 2002's Elida which intensified very rapidly (eventually becoming a cat 5). The rapid intensificaion is just a possibility and the official forecast from NHC just forecasts gradual strengthening until Elida reaches cooler waters beyond 72hrs which should induce weakening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida has continued strengthening and is currently at 55kts. Hot waters and low shear are facilitating development. Elida has a central dense overcast feature and should become a hurricane tomorrow at it continues west-northwestward. Just how strong Elida gets is open to question, but weakening is likely beyond 48hrs as Elida moves over cooler waters.

    post-1820-1215977223_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    how strong do you think this will get?

    Well, NHC says 65kts but as the waters are hot beneath Elida it could well be stronger than that. I'll guess 85kts :( . It really depends how well Elida can organise itself over the next couple days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Elida has now become a hurricane as expected with sustained winds upto 80mph/70 knots, minimum central pressure of 984 mb and continues to journey west at 14mph.

    ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE

    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...

    RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO

    AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES

    ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE

    IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.

    RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL

    SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD

    SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE.

    AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE

    GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG

    DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE

    FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST

    DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. AT THE EXTENDED TIME

    PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS

    ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR

    THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE

    TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS

    TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL

    FORECAST.

    ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT

    MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24

    HOURS. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER

    MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE

    INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT

    DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST

    AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL

    BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE

    FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Yup, as expected, Elida has become the second hurricane of the East Pacific season. Warm waters, low shear and good moisture levels have provided the fuel for Elida's continued strengthening. Has a little more time over warm waters too, so Elida may become a little stronger than the 70kts it is at currently.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    Yup, as expected, Elida has become the second hurricane of the East Pacific season. Warm waters, low shear and good moisture levels have provided the fuel for Elida's continued strengthening. Has a little more time over warm waters too, so Elida may become a little stronger than the 70kts it is at currently.

    is this the same storm

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

    http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

    keep an eyeon this could easily be another one in a better place

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    is this the same storm

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

    http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

    keep an eyeon this could easily be another one in a better place

    No, Elida is in the East Pacific, the system in that link could very well become TD3 in the Atlantic, so I agree, well worth keeping an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida is currently at 75kts, but this is likely to be as strong as she gets. The eye has become cloud filled and the convection is generally less widespread in coverage, and it is likely weakening will commence now as shear increases over Elida and the hurricane moves over progressively cooler waters. A general westwards track is forecasted through the next five days, with Elida being a weak tropical depression by day 5.

    post-1820-1216115759_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    After weakening to 65kts, Elida has re-intensified to a secondary peak of 75kts. Shear relaxed over Elida allowing her to re-strengthen. Cooler waters will eventually enforce weakening though, but this re-strengthening means Elida will live a little longer.

    I think Elida is looking the best it has ever done so far, I actually think this is stronger than 75kts:

    post-1820-1216231465_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    As I thought judging by satellite imagery, Elida has unexpectedly strengthened, and is now at 90kts, making it a mid-range category 2 hurricane. Intensification should halt now as Elida is moving over cooler waters. A little bit of a surprise with Elida, and it seems my 85kt forecast (ok, guess :cold: ) wasn't far off the mark. The waters are very warm in the area which has allowed Elida to become stronger than anticipated. Also, the shear has not been as strong as predicted either which really helped Elida a great deal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida is gradually weakening and the intensity is down to 85kts. Weakening is expected to continue over the next few days. Elida will continue to head westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north, and the NHC mention that because Elida is moving slightly south than originally anticipated the hurricane will move over warmer waters for longer, which may delay rapid weakening. If Elida jogs further to the south then dissipation may not occur as soon as anticipated, we'll have to wait and see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    predicting these things must be a nightmare

    Indeed, it's surprising how many people don't realise that.

    The forecast is pretty straightforward for Elida now though. Convection has greatly diminished today and only a very small amount remains hugging the centre. Cool waters are the reason for the convection decay. Elida is expected to continue winding down until degeneration to a remnant low occurs, within 48hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida became a remnant low yesterday but since there has been convection flaring over the centre. However, redevelopment is unlikely as the convection hasn't been persistant and the low is over waters a little too cool for re-development.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The remnant low of Elida has continued westwards and is now just south of Hawaii. Convection has once again increased in association with the centre but the CPHC don't anticipate re-development of the system. However, if current convective organisational trends continue then there is a slim chance of Elida re-developing into a tropical depression as it continues westwards. Would anyone like to comment on it's chances? The area has been designated invest 91C so there must be some chance.

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