Hurricane Elida

[James M]

Seeing as no one else has I thought I would start a thread for Tropical Storm Elida which has recently formed.

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 120838

TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008

200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316

ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED

INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT

35 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS

ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF

THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING. BOTH

DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION

WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN

48 HOURS. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO

SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE

STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.

THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN

THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE

NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS

REFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. AS A

RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE

GFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Edited July 12, 2008 by James M

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, we have the sixth tropical cyclone of the East Pacific season. Invest 98E rapidly gained organsation over night and TD6 formed, which has since strengthened to Tropical Storm Elida. Elida is currently at 40kts, and further strengthening is predicted, with Elida expected to become a hurricane in 48hrs time. Some very warm, even hot waters lie to the west of Elida and that is where she's heading. There is a little shear over Elida at the moment, but this is is expected to ease. Intrestingly from NHC:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION

GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

which with lower shear and waters of 32C isn't out of the question. It would be very ironic if 2008's Elida behaved like 2002's Elida which intensified very rapidly (eventually becoming a cat 5). The rapid intensificaion is just a possibility and the official forecast from NHC just forecasts gradual strengthening until Elida reaches cooler waters beyond 72hrs which should induce weakening.

[Cookie]

it appears to be heading away from land as well

[Somerset Squall]

Elida has continued strengthening and is currently at 55kts. Hot waters and low shear are facilitating development. Elida has a central dense overcast feature and should become a hurricane tomorrow at it continues west-northwestward. Just how strong Elida gets is open to question, but weakening is likely beyond 48hrs as Elida moves over cooler waters.

[Cookie]

how strong do you think this will get?

[Somerset Squall]

how strong do you think this will get?

Well, NHC says 65kts but as the waters are hot beneath Elida it could well be stronger than that. I'll guess 85kts . It really depends how well Elida can organise itself over the next couple days.

[James M]

Elida has now become a hurricane as expected with sustained winds upto 80mph/70 knots, minimum central pressure of 984 mb and continues to journey west at 14mph.

ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...

RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO

AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES

ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE

IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.

RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL

SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD

SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE

FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST

DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. AT THE EXTENDED TIME

PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS

ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR

THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE

TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS

TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL

FORECAST.

ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT

MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24

HOURS. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER

MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT

DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST

AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL

BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE

FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, as expected, Elida has become the second hurricane of the East Pacific season. Warm waters, low shear and good moisture levels have provided the fuel for Elida's continued strengthening. Has a little more time over warm waters too, so Elida may become a little stronger than the 70kts it is at currently.

[tinybill]

Yup, as expected, Elida has become the second hurricane of the East Pacific season. Warm waters, low shear and good moisture levels have provided the fuel for Elida's continued strengthening. Has a little more time over warm waters too, so Elida may become a little stronger than the 70kts it is at currently.

is this the same storm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

keep an eyeon this could easily be another one in a better place

Edited July 14, 2008 by tinybill

[Somerset Squall]

is this the same storm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

keep an eyeon this could easily be another one in a better place

No, Elida is in the East Pacific, the system in that link could very well become TD3 in the Atlantic, so I agree, well worth keeping an eye on.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

Elida is currently at 75kts, but this is likely to be as strong as she gets. The eye has become cloud filled and the convection is generally less widespread in coverage, and it is likely weakening will commence now as shear increases over Elida and the hurricane moves over progressively cooler waters. A general westwards track is forecasted through the next five days, with Elida being a weak tropical depression by day 5.

[Somerset Squall]

After weakening to 65kts, Elida has re-intensified to a secondary peak of 75kts. Shear relaxed over Elida allowing her to re-strengthen. Cooler waters will eventually enforce weakening though, but this re-strengthening means Elida will live a little longer.

I think Elida is looking the best it has ever done so far, I actually think this is stronger than 75kts:

Edited July 16, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

As I thought judging by satellite imagery, Elida has unexpectedly strengthened, and is now at 90kts, making it a mid-range category 2 hurricane. Intensification should halt now as Elida is moving over cooler waters. A little bit of a surprise with Elida, and it seems my 85kt forecast (ok, guess ) wasn't far off the mark. The waters are very warm in the area which has allowed Elida to become stronger than anticipated. Also, the shear has not been as strong as predicted either which really helped Elida a great deal.

[Cookie]

it or she is looking good nice images

[Somerset Squall]

Elida is gradually weakening and the intensity is down to 85kts. Weakening is expected to continue over the next few days. Elida will continue to head westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north, and the NHC mention that because Elida is moving slightly south than originally anticipated the hurricane will move over warmer waters for longer, which may delay rapid weakening. If Elida jogs further to the south then dissipation may not occur as soon as anticipated, we'll have to wait and see.

Edited July 17, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

predicting these things must be a nightmare

[Somerset Squall]

predicting these things must be a nightmare

Indeed, it's surprising how many people don't realise that.

The forecast is pretty straightforward for Elida now though. Convection has greatly diminished today and only a very small amount remains hugging the centre. Cool waters are the reason for the convection decay. Elida is expected to continue winding down until degeneration to a remnant low occurs, within 48hrs.

[Cookie]

thanks again mate for the updates

[Somerset Squall]

Elida became a remnant low yesterday but since there has been convection flaring over the centre. However, redevelopment is unlikely as the convection hasn't been persistant and the low is over waters a little too cool for re-development.

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Elida has continued westwards and is now just south of Hawaii. Convection has once again increased in association with the centre but the CPHC don't anticipate re-development of the system. However, if current convective organisational trends continue then there is a slim chance of Elida re-developing into a tropical depression as it continues westwards. Would anyone like to comment on it's chances? The area has been designated invest 91C so there must be some chance.

Edited July 23, 2008 by Somerset Squall