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Hurricane Fausto


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    TD7 formed earlier today from invest 90E. The new depression has some very deep convection near the centre and the NHC remarks it's not far of TS strength. TD07E is in an environment of very warm waters but moderate shear. Strengthening is predicted in this environment and the NHC are forecasting this system to develop into a hurricane. The track is further south than Elida so 07E may have longer over the warmest waters. The system is heading west-northwest so land isn't threatened. This obviously also means that the system doesn't have much in the way of it developing over the next few days.

    Image of TD07E and Elida (07E on the right):

    xxirg9bbm.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    TD07E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fausto, with an initial intensity of 35kts. Fausto's circulation is partially exposed but there is good banding features associated with the storm. Strengthening is still anticipated in the coming days, but rapid intensification is not expected to due the persistance of moderate shear over Fausto.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Yeah, a pretty active start to the East Pacific season in particular. I know last year was quiet but we only got to "K" last year. It's only mid-July and this year we're already on "F"! Hopefully they keep coming as my name is on the East Pacific list this year :) .

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Fausto has intensified to 50kts. The system is generally heading wes-northwestward over warm waters and through moderate shear so further strengthening is predicted. Fausto is likely to become the third hurricane of the East Pacific season tomorrow.

    post-1820-1216316631_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Its got a very strange look this one, ther eis banding all around the system yet the actual LLC is clear, I wonder if we have some low level divergence which is stopping convection from developing over the center, interesting looking!

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Its got a very strange look this one, ther eis banding all around the system yet the actual LLC is clear, I wonder if we have some low level divergence which is stopping convection from developing over the center, interesting looking!

    may sound a daft question whats divergence?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Nope its not a daft question at all really, its hard for me to answer but to put it really simiply if you have low level divergence then convection will get surpressed and you will see little convection get going whilst if you have low level convergence (think convergence lines from UK storms if that helps a little) enhances convection and gives it upward motion. Usually the combo to look for is upper level divergence and lower level convergence, as Low level convvergence allows convection to be enhanced and sustained whilst LLD signals an upper high and thus decent conditions for a system to strengthen.

    thats the basic way of thinking aobut it, its far more complicated then that and to be honest I have'nt got a totally amazing grasp on those terms beyond what I've just said either, its something I will have a look into for next season...always learning new stuff you know!

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    yeah I understand thanks for answering ;)

    hopefully you me and somerset will continue learning and passing on information to each other :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Fausto has finally become a Hurricane, just about, at 65 knots/75mph moving WNW at 11 knots/ 13mph.

    000

    WTPZ42 KNHC 181501

    TCDEP2

    HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008

    800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

    AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED

    IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS

    ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND

    COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT

    FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN

    PACIFIC SEASON. CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED

    STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG

    THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL

    INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND

    IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY

    MODELS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11. FEW CHANGES

    TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE

    FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL

    RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT

    TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT

    THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5.

    THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE

    CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.

    FORECASTER KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Yup, Fausto is now a hurricane, convection finally developed over the centre which was looking pretty bare over the last couple days as Kold said. Further strengthening is predicted over warm waters and low shear- NHC expect a peak of 85kts which would take it to cat 2 status.

    What a differnece from yesterday convection wise:

    post-1820-1216404147_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    After reaching a peak of 80kts, Fausto has weakened slightly to 75kts on it's northwestward track. On this track, Fausto is moving into colder waters, in fact the sea temperatures shelve off quite steeply. This should cause fast weakening and Fausto could degenerate into a remant low as early as 72hrs (3 days).

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Fausto has re-intensified to 80kts. Low shear and warm waters have supported Hurricane Fausto over the last couple days but the favourable conditions are not set to last long. Cooler waters lie ahead, and eventually stronger shear which will slowly weaken Fausto followed by a more rapid decay beyond 24hrs. For now though, Fausto looks in pretty good shape.

    post-1820-1216593640_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    It seems Fausto has intensified further and is now a Category 2, despite marginal ocean temperatures.

    000

    WTPZ42 KNHC 210849

    TCDEP2

    HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008

    200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

    ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY

    YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES

    AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT

    A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN

    TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-

    SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN

    STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER

    WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

    FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING

    IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

    INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE

    IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

    HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN

    ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS

    ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS

    VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed, Fausto kept us guessing to the very end and peaked higher than expected. The hurricane looked pretty good this morning, but Fausto clearly has weakened since as waters are rapidly becoming colder on the northwest track. Intensity has been decreased to 70kts, and Fausto should weaken to a tropical storm later this evening. Degeneration into a remnant low is forecast to occur by 72hrs, though it may well be sooner.

    post-1820-1216663255_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Fausto is a goner. The centre has been deviod of convection all day as the 35kt storm battles stable air and very cool waters. Regeneration isn't expected.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    is that you're final answer? :drunk:

    I think :drunk:

    :drunk:

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