Hurricane Fausto

[Somerset Squall]

TD7 formed earlier today from invest 90E. The new depression has some very deep convection near the centre and the NHC remarks it's not far of TS strength. TD07E is in an environment of very warm waters but moderate shear. Strengthening is predicted in this environment and the NHC are forecasting this system to develop into a hurricane. The track is further south than Elida so 07E may have longer over the warmest waters. The system is heading west-northwest so land isn't threatened. This obviously also means that the system doesn't have much in the way of it developing over the next few days.

Image of TD07E and Elida (07E on the right):

[Somerset Squall]

TD07E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fausto, with an initial intensity of 35kts. Fausto's circulation is partially exposed but there is good banding features associated with the storm. Strengthening is still anticipated in the coming days, but rapid intensification is not expected to due the persistance of moderate shear over Fausto.

[Cookie]

these systems are coming like buses

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, a pretty active start to the East Pacific season in particular. I know last year was quiet but we only got to "K" last year. It's only mid-July and this year we're already on "F"! Hopefully they keep coming as my name is on the East Pacific list this year .

[Somerset Squall]

Fausto has intensified to 50kts. The system is generally heading wes-northwestward over warm waters and through moderate shear so further strengthening is predicted. Fausto is likely to become the third hurricane of the East Pacific season tomorrow.

[Cookie]

another great image mate

[kold weather]

Its got a very strange look this one, ther eis banding all around the system yet the actual LLC is clear, I wonder if we have some low level divergence which is stopping convection from developing over the center, interesting looking!

[Cookie]

Its got a very strange look this one, ther eis banding all around the system yet the actual LLC is clear, I wonder if we have some low level divergence which is stopping convection from developing over the center, interesting looking!

may sound a daft question whats divergence?

[kold weather]

Nope its not a daft question at all really, its hard for me to answer but to put it really simiply if you have low level divergence then convection will get surpressed and you will see little convection get going whilst if you have low level convergence (think convergence lines from UK storms if that helps a little) enhances convection and gives it upward motion. Usually the combo to look for is upper level divergence and lower level convergence, as Low level convvergence allows convection to be enhanced and sustained whilst LLD signals an upper high and thus decent conditions for a system to strengthen.

thats the basic way of thinking aobut it, its far more complicated then that and to be honest I have'nt got a totally amazing grasp on those terms beyond what I've just said either, its something I will have a look into for next season...always learning new stuff you know!

Edited July 17, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

yeah I understand thanks for answering

hopefully you me and somerset will continue learning and passing on information to each other

[James M]

Fausto has finally become a Hurricane, just about, at 65 knots/75mph moving WNW at 11 knots/ 13mph.

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 181501

TCDEP2

HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008

800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED

IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS

ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND

COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT

FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN

PACIFIC SEASON. CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED

STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG

THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND

IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY

MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11. FEW CHANGES

TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE

FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT

TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT

THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE

CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, Fausto is now a hurricane, convection finally developed over the centre which was looking pretty bare over the last couple days as Kold said. Further strengthening is predicted over warm waters and low shear- NHC expect a peak of 85kts which would take it to cat 2 status.

What a differnece from yesterday convection wise:

[Cookie]

a good looking system

[Somerset Squall]

After reaching a peak of 80kts, Fausto has weakened slightly to 75kts on it's northwestward track. On this track, Fausto is moving into colder waters, in fact the sea temperatures shelve off quite steeply. This should cause fast weakening and Fausto could degenerate into a remant low as early as 72hrs (3 days).

[Somerset Squall]

Fausto has re-intensified to 80kts. Low shear and warm waters have supported Hurricane Fausto over the last couple days but the favourable conditions are not set to last long. Cooler waters lie ahead, and eventually stronger shear which will slowly weaken Fausto followed by a more rapid decay beyond 24hrs. For now though, Fausto looks in pretty good shape.

[James M]

It seems Fausto has intensified further and is now a Category 2, despite marginal ocean temperatures.

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 210849

TCDEP2

HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008

200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY

YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES

AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT

A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN

TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN

STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER

WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING

IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE

IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN

ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS

ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS

VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Edited July 21, 2008 by James M

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Fausto kept us guessing to the very end and peaked higher than expected. The hurricane looked pretty good this morning, but Fausto clearly has weakened since as waters are rapidly becoming colder on the northwest track. Intensity has been decreased to 70kts, and Fausto should weaken to a tropical storm later this evening. Degeneration into a remnant low is forecast to occur by 72hrs, though it may well be sooner.

[Cookie]

thanks guys for the updates a good little system this one

[Somerset Squall]

Fausto is a goner. The centre has been deviod of convection all day as the 35kt storm battles stable air and very cool waters. Regeneration isn't expected.

[Cookie]

is that you're final answer?

[Somerset Squall]

is that you're final answer?

I think

[Cookie]

I think

:lol: