Tropical storm cristobal

[Iceberg]

Only Set to make TS strength and that if it's lucky!. ECM once progged this to be a hurricane but nothing remotely supports this any more and a gradual featurette of the east coast looks likely before it's picked up by a much large set up.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED

WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM

A SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT

DISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE

CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION

THREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY

OF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE

WEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST

OF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD

MOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE

WESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT

MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE

CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT

BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE

COASTLINE. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE

ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A

POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF

DRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXCEPT FOR THE

CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER

THAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING

TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH

STRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST

TRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM

WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 31.9N 79.6W 25 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 32.4N 79.1W 30 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 33.4N 78.0W 35 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 35 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 35 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

[Cookie]

torm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 3:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL03 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

[Paranoid]

Wir haben TS Cristobal

...RETRANSMISSION...

...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO

STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE

RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA

BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR

ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND

ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH

CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA

TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS

OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED

HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND

SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

Edited July 19, 2008 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...at.html#a_topad

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL03 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Edited July 19, 2008 by cookie

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Center is on the northern side of the convection and every now and then seems to be getting displaced. However convection continues to build over it when that does happen so I suspect the 40kts forecast is probably pretty reasonable right now. Its got a very tight center though so if it does get a big convective burst over it, it will strengthen pretty readily IMO.

[Nick F]

Noticed the SPC have TS Cristobal mentioned in their day 1 convective outlook forecast:

...CAROLINA CST...

PROJECTED SLOW NE TRACK OF TD 3 SHOULD KEEP MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR

LOW LVL STORM ROTATION OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...ATTM IT

DOES NOT APPEAR THAT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR

TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Outer convective bands coming across Carolinas atm:

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 20 Jul, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Cristobal's centre is pretty well defined but convection isn't all that deep. However, Cristobal is still expected to strengthen further and NHC predict a peak of 55kts. This isn't out of the question but the storm better get it's act together soon as strong shear lies to the north, along with a large extratropical low which is currently forecast to absorb Cristobal in 96hrs. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur before then, by 72hrs.

[Muffelchen]

Christobal's LLC seems to be exposed to the north of the convection just South of Cape Lookout. Is a new circulation centre likely to form under the convection, which has blossomed overnight?

[Cookie]

was just watching about this system on fox news

[Paranoid]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 201744

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS A LITTLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY

TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25

MILES...40 KM...EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50

MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON

THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH

CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH

CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM

TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Cookie]

new update

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alerts Cookie.

Cristobal is looking better than it did earlier, with deep convection now forming closer to the centre, which was alomost entirely exposed this afternoon. Although Cristobal is over the warm waters of the gulf stream very little intensification is forecast due to dry air impinging on the circulation from the north (from inland). This is the reason Cristobal has been having problems sustaining deep convection over his centre. Cristobal is likely to be absorbed by an extartropical low to the north in a few days.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 210852

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110

MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20

KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS

TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...36.1 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Somerset Squall]

Cristobal has intensified to 55kts. The storm's track has had a more easterly component in the last few hours, further away from land so the air hasn't been quite so dry. Convection is pretty healthy over the centre and Cristobal is moving over the warm waters of the gulf stream in a low shear environment, so a little more intensification is predicted- the NHC keep Cristobal at just below hurricane strength although I reckon it has a small window of oppurtunity to become one before the storm gets caught in upper level westerlies and begins extratropical transition, currently forecast to begin in 36hrs.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates somerset

Storm Alert issued at 21 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485

MILES...780 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT

450 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...

AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL

LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2008 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Cristobal has been declared extratropical over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. Very little convection remains and this is very shallow, not typical of a tropical cyclone. The system is now cold cored, and will move generally eastwards over the next couple days until it gets absorbed by a large extratropical low.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 230847

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...CRISTOBAL BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 380

MILES...610 KM...EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50

KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...44.7 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME