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Tropical storm cristobal


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Only Set to make TS strength and that if it's lucky!. ECM once progged this to be a hurricane but nothing remotely supports this any more and a gradual featurette of the east coast looks likely before it's picked up by a much large set up.

    OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF

    LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED

    WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM

    A SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT

    DISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE

    CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.

    CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION

    THREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR

    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY

    OF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE

    WEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST

    OF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODEL

    GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD

    MOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

    FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE

    WESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT

    MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE

    CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT

    BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE

    COASTLINE. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE

    ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A

    POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

    THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE

    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF

    DRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXCEPT FOR THE

    CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY

    GUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS

    FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER

    THAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING

    TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH

    STRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST

    TRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 19/0300Z 31.9N 79.6W 25 KT

    12HR VT 19/1200Z 32.4N 79.1W 30 KT

    24HR VT 20/0000Z 33.4N 78.0W 35 KT

    36HR VT 20/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 35 KT

    48HR VT 21/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 35 KT

    72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT

    96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    torm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 3:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL03 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

    probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Wir haben TS Cristobal :D

    ...RETRANSMISSION...

    ...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO

    STRENGTHEN...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE

    RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA

    BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS

    THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING

    AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL

    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR

    ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND

    ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH

    CAROLINA.

    CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS

    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

    DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS

    EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA

    TODAY AND TOMORROW.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

    DAYS.

    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

    RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS

    OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED

    HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND

    SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

    CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    at200803.gif

    at200803_sat.jpg

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...at.html#a_topad

    Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL03 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

    probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

    probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

    probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Canada

    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Center is on the northern side of the convection and every now and then seems to be getting displaced. However convection continues to build over it when that does happen so I suspect the 40kts forecast is probably pretty reasonable right now. Its got a very tight center though so if it does get a big convective burst over it, it will strengthen pretty readily IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Noticed the SPC have TS Cristobal mentioned in their day 1 convective outlook forecast:

    ...CAROLINA CST...

    PROJECTED SLOW NE TRACK OF TD 3 SHOULD KEEP MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR

    LOW LVL STORM ROTATION OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...ATTM IT

    DOES NOT APPEAR THAT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR

    TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    Outer convective bands coming across Carolinas atm:

    post-1052-1216550889_thumb.pngpost-1052-1216550875_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 20 Jul, 2008 9:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 85% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

    probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristobal's centre is pretty well defined but convection isn't all that deep. However, Cristobal is still expected to strengthen further and NHC predict a peak of 55kts. This isn't out of the question but the storm better get it's act together soon as strong shear lies to the north, along with a large extratropical low which is currently forecast to absorb Cristobal in 96hrs. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur before then, by 72hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    Christobal's LLC seems to be exposed to the north of the convection just South of Cape Lookout. Is a new circulation centre likely to form under the convection, which has blossomed overnight?

    vis.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    000

    WTNT33 KNHC 201744

    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

    200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

    ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS A LITTLE...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY

    TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25

    MILES...40 KM...EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50

    MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND

    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON

    THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH

    CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM

    SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH

    HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

    RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

    CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

    OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH

    CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM

    TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

    CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

    500 PM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Canada

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Thanks for the alerts Cookie.

    Cristobal is looking better than it did earlier, with deep convection now forming closer to the centre, which was alomost entirely exposed this afternoon. Although Cristobal is over the warm waters of the gulf stream very little intensification is forecast due to dry air impinging on the circulation from the north (from inland). This is the reason Cristobal has been having problems sustaining deep convection over his centre. Cristobal is likely to be absorbed by an extartropical low to the north in a few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    000

    WTNT33 KNHC 210852

    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

    500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

    ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110

    MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20

    KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME

    INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS

    TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

    LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

    TWO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM

    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...36.1 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

    1100 AM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristobal has intensified to 55kts. The storm's track has had a more easterly component in the last few hours, further away from land so the air hasn't been quite so dry. Convection is pretty healthy over the centre and Cristobal is moving over the warm waters of the gulf stream in a low shear environment, so a little more intensification is predicted- the NHC keep Cristobal at just below hurricane strength although I reckon it has a small window of oppurtunity to become one before the storm gets caught in upper level westerlies and begins extratropical transition, currently forecast to begin in 36hrs.

    post-1820-1216662177_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    thanks for the updates somerset

    Storm Alert issued at 21 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Canada

    probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

    500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

    ...CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485

    MILES...780 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT

    450 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...

    AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN

    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL

    LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

    1100 AM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER RHOME

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2008 3:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Canada

    probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

    Note that

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristobal has been declared extratropical over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. Very little convection remains and this is very shallow, not typical of a tropical cyclone. The system is now cold cored, and will move generally eastwards over the next couple days until it gets absorbed by a large extratropical low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    000

    WTNT33 KNHC 230847

    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

    500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

    ...CRISTOBAL BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 380

    MILES...610 KM...EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50

    KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24

    HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHEAST.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

    NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...44.7 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45

    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

    CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.

    $$

    FORECASTER RHOME

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