Oh dear Oh dear it's official

[If Wishes made Weather]

Oh dear oh dear: it’s official.

As you will know, there has been discussion on here for some time that the Met Office forecasts are long on adjectives, and short on empiricals. So, following a nudge, I enquired, using the example of whether or not ‘hot’ in a forecast meant something specific (say temperatures between 25 and 27 celcius) or whether it was more subjective (‘it will feel hot’). I compared my question to the position in Germany (where I sometimes live) were the forecasts are very tightly defined.

So the answer from the horse’s mouth is:

"In general terms when we use Hot we do mean more than 5 degrees above average in summer (May to Sept), but I suppose anything above 25 to 27C would be classed as hot. Sometimes we say it will feel hot, especially in light winds, when the sun will feel hot even though temperatures may only be 23 or 24C, so there is some scope for flexibility. We have found that if you ask 5 people on a particular day how it feels, you may get 2, 3 or 4 different answers as different people feel the warmth, or cold very differently to each other".

Now, I know I get as confused as the next man about things, but by this measure anything can mean anything. Just to avoid the allegation of intellectual elitism, here is tomorrow’s forecast when things mean nothing.

The weather in the North – which may be the South depending upon where you are – will feel either warm, or cold depending upon your metabolism at the time, and if you so choose, you could class the horizontal air movement as windy, or very windy, or not windy, depending upon how you are turned out. The weather will, of course, depend upon what you are doing. If you have had your hair done, it will, inevitably be too windy, if you have washed the car very rainy – no matter what the intensity is – and, if the sun should appear, it will be too warm, even hot, if you have a coat on, or otherwise cold, if you are semi naked. Unless, that is, you are going out in Harlow to get hammered on buckets full of green cocktail stuff, in which case semi naked is obligatory and you won’t feel anything anyway, so, by definition, there is no weather. :wacko:

Tim

[J07]

It's pretty easy to classify wind speeds, it's pretty easy to classify rain intensity. You just define boundaries for each type. But "hot" is subjective and harder to class because there are so many variables.

Why are you quibbling over something that isn't really that important?

[If Wishes made Weather]

It's pretty easy to classify wind speeds, it's pretty easy to classify rain intensity. You just define boundaries for each type. But "hot" is subjective and harder to class because there are so many variables.

Why are you quibbling over something that isn't really that important?

Because in renders the investment in high technology that enables fine short term forecasting otiose if all we need are indications of how you may feel about the weather. Also, perhaps, it assumes a particular reader/user type only, which might not be appropriate for a publically funded service.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm sure somebody can dig them out, or even extract them from the METO website, but i'm 95% sure they have their definitions publicly available.

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm sure somebody can dig them out, or even extract them from the METO website, but i'm 95% sure they have their definitions publicly available.

Interesting point Chris – I got two answers from the MO. The first referred me to that site, which purely defines the meaning of the symbols on the charts (dark cloud with plural raindrops = heavy rain). But it seems that is now it.

[The watcher]

The simplicity of their forecasts are mainly for the public eye, I don't think the 90% of the public would understand a more complex forecast discussion. In my idea they are correct about their use of the word "Hot", 5c+ above average or when the feel of the sun is hot (not the air temperature), so obviously in Summer it'd be 25c or above, in winter hot would be around 18c or above.

Im sure if you had informed them of your meterological research and hobby they would have explained in a broader manner. To them you are just an ordinary member of the public.

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm 100% with Tim Mellors on this one, there should be strict criteria which define 'hot' 'cold' etc etc and they should be adhered to, it was definitely the case in the past with the Met' Office and it's only in the last 10 years or so that so much subjectivity has crept into the forecasts.

Worst offenders by far are the regional radio and t.v weather presenters, most of whom seem not to know the difference between showers and continuous rain or air frost and ground frost and who describe temperatures of 12c at night in September as ' incredibly mild' and winds of 35 mph as 'incredibly windy'.

If all the superlatives in their armoury have been used at such a low threshold, what description would they apply to a minimum of 20c in September or a wind speed of 60 mph ?

If the various meteorological parameters are to be described on the basis of how people will feel then everyone should have their own individually tailored forecast; until that unlikely day arrives let's stick to strict definitions as to what is heavy rain or light rain, hot or cold etc.

The general public may not have much insight into what constitues heavy rain as opposed to moderate or light rain, they may not know the difference between an air frost and a ground frost but the job of weather forecasters and presenters is to inform and educate and it should not be assumed that because someone is ill-informed they are uneducatable.I'll wager that the average man in the street knew more about high and low pressure and cold fronts and warm fronts in the 1960s than at present, not because everyone went home after work to study meteorological text books but because the weather forecasts of the day used them as a matter of course and explained their effects.

We seem to be gradually descending into a world of tabloid newspaper speak where the assumption underpinning all things is, in the words of Harry Hill's brother, Alan. 'If it's too hard I can't understand it'

[Tn9]

Worst offenders by far are the regional radio and t.v weather presenters

So true,some say "sunshine and showers"whatever,even if its overcast and with drizzle,another good one is "bright spells",what the hell is a bright spell?like you said,the met office of old ,although not so well equipt with computer power,and the alike,used to be so much more imformative than they are now,my opinion anyways,the old pressure charts and stick on symbols were better than computer animated raindrops and clouds lol,or am i just being nostalgic?

[phil nw.]

I recall forecasts of years ago used precise temperature guidelines when the words Hot,Cold,Mild etc. were used.In fact these terms subdivided as follows-

Exceptionally Hot

Very Hot

Hot

Very Warm

Warm

Rather Warm

Average

Rather Cold

Cold

Very Cold

Exceptionally Cold.

In Winter the term Hot was never used ,this was substituted by Mild.

Similarly the strength of the wind was described with reference to the Beaufort Scale.

I particularly remember the radio forecasts were very true to these guidlines so there was no chance of misinterpreting the meaning of the message.

I enjoy the informality of some of the presenters but sometimes this can result in too much dumbing down when maybe a little effort to explain terminology

would be better.

The loss of quality weather forecast presenting maybe due to less airtime being given these days.