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Stuart

By Stuart
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leicsnow Apprentice

leicsnow

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

Valid from 14/01 to 10/02 2012

Colder late January

Issued: Monday 2nd January 2012

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

One touch of nature makes the whole world kin'. William Shakespeare

The forecast period from late-autumn into the beginning of this winter has been 'particularly challenging' both in terms of pinning down sufficient confidence in a sustainable pattern. There has been a good deal of cold Arctic air piling up the north, the 'deal' was attempting to see whether the pattern conditions would be favourable to 'trigger' this air to come south into the UK?

This has been a winter period the like of which I have not seen for some time, that said, with some reservations I have had this 'feeling' that winter 2011-12 would always be late. This is not the winter of the previous two years, when it arrives it will be notable, such will be the contrast to present conditions. I believe that it'll be the mid-late January period when this arrives?

*14/01/12*

After a brief taste of winter in the short term, conditions will revert to an Atlantic flow with generally mild conditions establishing across all areas of the UK.

There'll be periods of wind and rain for all of us, gales in exposed areas to the west and north, some of this rain will be heavy at times with blustery showers following as brighter and cooler conditions pass through on a brisk west to north-westerly flow.

There will be some drier and brighter intervals between the main rain bands, the more southern and south-eastern areas of Britain favoured to see this, sheltered from the mainly west to north-westerly flow. There is the hint that these more southern areas will become largely dry later as pressure begins to rise.

*15/01/12 - 20/01/12*

It is through this period that the patterns do suggest a rise in pressure, where this takes place is 'debatable' at the moment, also the threat that it may turn substantially colder.

On current evidence a rise in pressure will take place, a suggestion that this'll be to the northwest or northwest a much colder outbreak of Arctic air moving south through all areas on a northerly to north-easterly flow.

Much of the available precipitation turning wintry in nature, frost becoming widespread overnight as high pressure slips across the UK and winds fall light, a less cold flow across the north and northwest as a light south-westerly establishes here. As high pressure slips further east a light southerly to south-easterly flow becomes established through all areas, so mainly dry, broken cloud and chilly for most.

*21/01/12 - 25/01/12*

High pressure once again takes control as it drifts in the UK, the mainly dry settled and chilly conditions maintained through most areas.

Some indication of a strengthening westerly flow over the northern half of Britain, so expect more in the way of cloud and rain here from time to time later, as high pressure drifts westward, the flow turns more north-westerly through all areas, allowing this more unsettled weather to extend south and east through the bulk of the UK.

*26/01/12 - 05/02/12*

This period sees the Atlantic once again take control with a brisk westerly establishing across all areas bringing wet and windy conditions. Turning mild for a time, drier across the south as pressure builds.

High pressure begins to dominate to the west a colder north-westerly then northerly digs in, wintry showers extending south as temperatures begin to fall back.

Simon & Capn Bob

Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Edited by Tellow
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