Jet Stream And Forecasts

[Cookie]

As part of the weather course Im doing at the moment, Im on a chapter that covers the jet stream.

one of the question asked in the video to the BBC forecast why jet stream wasn't included in the forecasts.

do you think the path of the jet stream should be covered by TV forecasts or not?

[davehsug]

Hi Cookie. Not too sure it would be of any real value. As far as I can see, the positioning & strength of the jet only serves as an explanation of the current weather, along the lines of "& if you look at just where the jet is now & how strong it is, you can see why we're having all this wet weather".

We know from jet forecasts from vatious models, that they are just as likely to be incorrect as are the models generally. They don't add much in terms of 3-5 day outlooks & beyond that..well you know the rest.

Dave

[J07]

Hi Cookie. Not too sure it would be of any real value. As far as I can see, the positioning & strength of the jet only serves as an explanation of the current weather, along the lines of "& if you look at just where the jet is now & how strong it is, you can see why we're having all this wet weather".

We know from jet forecasts from vatious models, that they are just as likely to be incorrect as are the models generally. They don't add much in terms of 3-5 day outlooks & beyond that..well you know the rest.

Dave

I don't really agree with this.

I think there are aspects of the jet stream that can both explain the current weather and help to aid in explanations of what is coming our way. (When I say "our" I mean the UK).

It could show on an outlook how a depression heading towards the country is deepening due to good support from the jet.

The problem with this is that on the graphics, it would need to be clever enough to show both jet entrances and jet exits. Otherwise a lot of the stuff makes no sense. I think that the thermodynamic tendencies of jet streams is overlooked. It is thought of as "steering" lows towards the UK, which is known to be true, thanks to Mr Sutcliffe, but I believe of equal importance is the idea that surface low pressure (upper air divergence) is favoured in regions of both poleward exits and equatorward entrances - the former being of particular importance to the UK.

Like I said, this is useful because it can show over a timeframe how lows are predicted to intensify or weaken, and also where they may be headed.

Likewise, it can be shown that there may be strong upper air support for a surface high over the country over the next few days.

The story of the jet has been in the news a fair bit over the last two summers, for obvious reasons. That may mean people want to learn more about it, and would be open to seeing it depicted on weather forecasts.

On the otherhand, you could argue that a lot of people that watch the weather really don't care about this sort of stuff.

It all depends, as always, on the target audience.

Were it to be displayed, there would then be questions about the detail involved. I know weatherzone (Aussie) show jets, but not the entrances or exits. If you want to show these, then it could conceivably be seen as confusing to the viewer. Then you have to wonder if it's worth showing jet streaks also, jet maxima and whether to show enough curvature to demonstrate if the jet lies in a trough or a ridge. It could get quite messy. And if you want to explain the development of features, it could be helpful to overlay it onto a surface pressure map....which could get very messy indeed and cause a lot of viewers to turn off.

At a most basic level, you would have to consider: Can people even comprehend that the wind at 10,000m may be going in a total different direction to the wind at the surface? I'm sure there are a lot of people that would see this as confusing.

So maybe keep it out of regular forecasts but hold it back for specialist programmes like the Weather Show or Countryfile?

Personally, I'd like to see it in NZ, because we have visits from both the polar front and the subtropical jet, whereas the UK will only ever see the polar front. The jet interplay is often quite interesting.

[Cookie]

interesting to see both sides. for the video they did actually included the jet stream in the forecast

[Louby]

I personally would like to see it part of the day to day forecasts but I am not sure that they would have time to fit it all in and whether people who have no real knowledge of how things work would understand or want to understand it.

Most only care if it is going to be sunny or raining and not why its going to be sunny.

Would really like even if it is just once a week have them do a really indepth forecast.

[Nick F]

I'm sure I remember the likes of Ian McCaskill et al used to refer to the jet stream (among other common meteorological phenomena) in what used to be longer and more informative BBC forecasts back in the day. Alas nowadays the dumbed down forecasts have no room or TV execs are too fearful of such references that maybe deemed too technical for the audience.

[grab my graupel]

Doesn't Francis Wilson, on sky, quite often refer to the Jet stream in some of his forecasts?

[johnholmes]

I'm sure I remember the likes of Ian McCaskill et al used to refer to the jet stream (among other common meteorological phenomena) in what used to be longer and more informative BBC forecasts back in the day. Alas nowadays the dumbed down forecasts have no room or TV execs are too fearful of such references that maybe deemed too technical for the audience.

just about spot on Nick

[If Wishes made Weather]

As I've noted in another thread in the media forum (based upon Met Office quote), it appears that the forecast - at least for the public - is not about factual empirical things, its presentation is about how people will subjectively 'find' the weather. Positioning of the jet stream is not something that you can feel, so it has no place.

Tim