Tropical Cyclone Rashmi

[Somerset Squall]

The fourth tropical cyclone of the 2008 North Indian Ocean season formed in the early hours, in the northern half of the Bay of Bengal. The storm is located about 200 miles south of the Indian/Pakastani border and is moving northwards along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the east. This will bring 04B inland in about 24hrs time, to dissipate in about 36hrs time. 04B has a small window of opportunity for strengthening before landfall as shear is light and sea temps are warm, and the system is already very well organised with good banding features and very deep convection over the core of the storm. Likely to bing some very heavy rainfall to the Calcutta area along with some potentially strong winds depending on how much 04B intensifies. The storm may recieve a name this afternoon as the India Meteorological department is on the brink of upgrading 04B to a cyclonic storm.

Edited October 26, 2008 by Somerset Squall

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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ni200804.html

thanks for the update somerset

[Somerset Squall]

04B has continued to strengthen, and intensity has been increased to 40kts. The cyclone has now been named as Rashmi by the IMD. Further intensification is likely prior to landfall tomorrow morning on the border of India and Pakistan. Adverse affects such as flooding, damaging winds and storm surge are likely to impact the vunerable area. Rashmi is then expected to push inland and dissipate, but remnant rains could well persist after the LLC is dissipated. Rashmi is looking pretty impressive right now with a good central dense overcast feature- don't be surprised to see some last minute rapid intensification before landfall. We'll have to wait and see as always!

Edited October 26, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Rashmi is very near landfall now, indded some torrential rain is now spreading inland ahead of the main core. Rashmi has intensified a little more, and is now at 45kts. It's possible that a little more strengthening could occur before the LLC makes landfall in the next few hours. Rashmi is clearly visible in the extreme north of the Bay of Bengal, Pakistan and northeast India could be in for some very serious flooding:

[Somerset Squall]

Just realised I made a mistake, in the last two posts it should read India and Bangledesh, NOT Pakistan. Rashmi will be making landfall on the border of India and Bangledesh.

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I will let you off this time SS, but I expect better :lol:

a wee storm alert

Storm Alert issued at 26 Oct, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RASHMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for TS is 75% currently

Bangladesh

probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Jessore (23.2 N, 89.2 E)

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Kolkata (22.5 N, 88.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Rashmi moved inland in the early hours and has since dissipated. Dry air has also stopped most of the rains and the LLC is gone.

[Somerset Squall]

Rashmi has killed 15 in Bangladesh and many more missing in fishing boats in the Bay of Bengal:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/i...E49R0L920081028

An addtional 5 have been declared dead in northeast India due to the remnant rains which caused dangerous flooding from Rashmi:

http://www.zeenews.com/articles.asp?aid=479331&sid=REG

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these systems always seem to kill a few :o very sad