New Hurricane Record

[Gray-Wolf]

To endeavour to keep 'on topic' I will separate out this topic from the general 'climate change debate'.

This year the record for 'consecutive months with a 'major Hurricane' (cat 3 or above) was broken when Paloma formed and bombed to a Cat 4. It was only in 2005 that the long standing record of '3 consecutive months' (since records began in 1851) was broken.

The fact that the record has fallen twice in close succession would suggest to me that something 'novel' is driving this. Of course, with Hurricanes being 'heat driven' (needing ocean surface temps of above 27c), it would appear that the oceans are holding onto heat longer and longer and so enabling these monsters to be spawned at either end of the 'Hurricane season' (and outside).

Is this yet another manifestation of AGW? Are we now seeing climatic impacts from pole to equator?

How do you guys view this interesting statistic?

[Solar Cycles]

To endeavour to keep 'on topic' I will separate out this topic from the general 'climate change debate'.

This year the record for 'consecutive months with a 'major Hurricane' (cat 3 or above) was broken when Paloma formed and bombed to a Cat 4. It was only in 2005 that the long standing record of '3 consecutive months' (since records began in 1851) was broken.

The fact that the record has fallen twice in close succession would suggest to me that something 'novel' is driving this. Of course, with Hurricanes being 'heat driven' (needing ocean surface temps of above 27c), it would appear that the oceans are holding onto heat longer and longer and so enabling these monsters to be spawned at either end of the 'Hurricane season' (and outside).

Is this yet another manifestation of AGW? Are we now seeing climatic impacts from pole to equator?

How do you guys view this interesting statistic?

I can't see how the record has been broken to be honest. It's been a quiet affair which as resulted in very little media coverage!

[Cookie]

it has been broken mate. just cause the media ain't covering dosen't mean it hasn't happend.

something else that may intrest you grey wolf, bertha right back at the start of the year set a record for I think being the furthest east forming system.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks's Cookie ,I'll check it out!

Hi Solar Cycle! You are right about no huge media coverage and yet ,for Haiti, Cuba and other of the Carribean islands it's been a horrid season (I don't know the death Toll/damage estimates but they'll both be high). The only time we are treated to coverage is with U.S. landfalls as their networks have a beano each time.

Jethro advises (on the climate change thread) that U.S. lanfalls are in decline and so if that is your 'measure' then you will hear less and less (just snippits on the news with shots of flapping palms and displaced locals).

Back to the topic.

If we are extending into a 5 month 'season' then you would imagine that , mid season, the northerly extent of landfalls will expand and increase in number. Though not unheard of Canada took a pounding from one this year so are all points north of North Carolina now more at risk?

As Cookie pointed out 'Bertha' formed off Africa very early in the season (Cape Verde' storm). In 2005 we had a couple of 'recurve' Hurricanes that went up west Africa and impacted the med. and so this may be another area of concern. With 'favourable conditions' just off Africa 'Cape Verde' storms could also start to form earlier in the season (as Bertha did this time) posing the real risk of north Africa/ European landfall if the Azores high steers them north.

[Solar Cycles]

Thanks's Cookie ,I'll check it out!

Hi Solar Cycle! You are right about no huge media coverage and yet ,for Haiti, Cuba and other of the Carribean islands it's been a horrid season (I don't know the death Toll/damage estimates but they'll both be high). The only time we are treated to coverage is with U.S. landfalls as their networks have a beano each time.

Jethro advises (on the climate change thread) that U.S. lanfalls are in decline and so if that is your 'measure' then you will hear less and less (just snippits on the news with shots of flapping palms and displaced locals).

Back to the topic.

If we are extending into a 5 month 'season' then you would imagine that , mid season, the northerly extent of landfalls will expand and increase in number. Though not unheard of Canada took a pounding from one this year so are all points north of North Carolina now more at risk?

As Cookie pointed out 'Bertha' formed off Africa very early in the season (Cape Verde' storm). In 2005 we had a couple of 'recurve' Hurricanes that went up west Africa and impacted the med. and so this may be another area of concern. With 'favourable conditions' just off Africa 'Cape Verde' storms could also start to form earlier in the season (as Bertha did this time) posing the real risk of north Africa/ European landfall if the Azores high steers them north.

Where is your source of information GW? This is the first time that I've heard this, and I'm pretty sure if this was the case then the gool old beeb would have reported on it! Edited November 10, 2008 by Solar Cycles

[Gray-Wolf]

Powerful Paloma pushes 2008 hurricane season into the record books

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While the shadow from the phenomenal 2005 hurricane season still looms large, Hurricane Paloma has pushed the 2008 season into the record books for a number of reasons:

Meteorologist Jeff Masters, on his Wunderblog, points out that 2008 is the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. (Major hurricanes are Category 3 storms and above; records go back to 1851).

Before 2008, the only year that had major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005. This year's record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October and Hurricane Paloma in November.

Masters also notes that Paloma is now the second-strongest November hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Lenny in 1999, a Category 4 hurricane with 155-mph winds, was the strongest November hurricane on record.

Charlie Wilson of Internet Partnership Radio also reports that Paloma is also only the fourth major hurricane to develop in November since Atlantic records began.

Another remarkable statistic from earlier this season was that six straight named storms -- Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike -- all made U.S. landfall for the first time on record.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I expect that, when the significance dawns on folk, more news stories will follow. When the season 'wraps up' The NOAA (the proper place to look for 'Hurricane facts and figures) will release the stats.

Apart from the above did you know that 'Bertha' was the 'longest lived July storm'(July 2-20) on record???

[Solar Cycles]

I think it would be wise to wait for the official version of events GW!

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it would be wise to wait for the official version of events GW!

So you are saying that the 'majors' we all witnessed (in one guise or another) could be 'downgraded' come seasons end?? I am aware that you are familiar with the NOAA and their records (the '4 consecutive months with a major' in the horrid 2005 season was well publicised) so why not check through them if you feel I am over stepping. As I recall the 'hurricane hunters' were all over each storm and the dropsonde reports were all logged.

Maybe you could expand the 'wisdom' of waiting to have confirmed that which we already know.....maybe I've missed something?

Bertha,July....Gustav,August....Ike,September....Omar,October....and now Paloma,November?

Here's an abstract from 'nature'

The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones

James B. Elsner1, James P. Kossin2 & Thomas H. Jagger1

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA

Correspondence to: James B. Elsner1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.B.E. (Email: jelsner@fsu.edu).

Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere1, 2, 3, 4. Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity. Here we overcome these two limitations by examining trends in the upper quantiles of per-cyclone maximum wind speeds (that is, the maximum intensities that cyclones achieve during their lifetimes), estimated from homogeneous data derived from an archive of satellite records. We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones. We note separate upward trends in the estimated lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the very strongest tropical cyclones (99th percentile) over each ocean basin, with the largest increase at this quantile occurring over the North Atlantic, although not all basins show statistically significant increases. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind.

And from Sept. Nature.....

Hurricanes are getting fiercer

Global warming blamed for growth in storm intensity.

Quirin Schiermeier

As this year's Atlantic hurricane season becomes ever more violent, scientists have come up with the firmest evidence so far that global warming will significantly increase the intensity of the most extreme storms worldwide.

The maximum wind speeds of the strongest tropical cyclones have increased significantly since 1981, according to research published in Nature this week1.

Edited November 10, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[James M]

The Bertha record I think was the easternmost forming July Tropical storm.

Edited November 10, 2008 by James M

[Gray-Wolf]

I will take your word for it james the NOAA mid-season update includes the snippet about 'longest lived storms'.

So. Reasons for the trend/s outlined?

My limited knowledge of Hurricanes is that they are very 'Heat dependant' needing the warm oceans to help them form/maintain. Can anyone forward any other reason why we should see an increase in the length of season other than seas/oceans building and then holding onto their heat for longer than they used to?

[Cookie]

bertha was when hell of a long lasting storm, when it hit Iceland we got the effects of it here on the western isles, ok it was the tail end, but it most have covered some mileage

[James M]

bertha was when hell of a long lasting storm, when it hit Iceland we got the effects of it here on the western isles, ok it was the tail end, but it most have covered some mileage

I thought they were only talking about the time it was actually a tropical storm though, so it's time up in Iceland wouldn't count as it was just the extratropical remnants by then.

Edited November 10, 2008 by James M

[Cookie]

yes I know but it still covered a lot of miles

[Roger J Smith]

This thread is somewhat overstated, but I take the situation in the Buddhist tradition, it is what it is.

The fact that five consecutive months had a major hurricane is sort of like a record waiting to be set, it's surprising that it hasn't happened before, but to get there, you have to score in July and November, the rest of the set is not very hard to assemble. Now calling a major hurricane in July "out of season" seems a bit of a stretch, there could quite easily be a major hurricane in June. As for November, Paloma was not quite the strongest hurricane this late in the year.

Impacts of hurricanes or tropical storms on Canada have not changed noticeably in recent years. There have always been one or two per decade, some of which were pretty serious, well back in the historical record.

I think all questions of "increasing frequency of severe weather" relating to climate change have to be assessed relative to two important frameworks, one being increased reporting and awareness, the other being anecdotal evidence being used to support a theory. If I had the time or inclination, I could probably conjure up a pretty convincing "proof" that severe storms are becoming less frequent, and perhaps I could even blame that on climate change if I wanted to make that point.

This hurricane season is sort of like Brazil's third World Cup, or whatever, just a bit more of the same old same old.

[Gray-Wolf]

November 10, 2008 3:41 PM

Hurricane season sets records

Over the weekend, Hurricane Paloma set another of those records that sends chills down spines in the Caribbean - for the first time major hurricanes formed in five successive months, from July through November. And the total energy carried by storms this year is double that of last year.

The hurricane season in the north Atlantic officially runs from June to the end of November. The odd storm may blow up in May or December, but usually the most storms and the strongest ones come from mid-August to mid-October. By early November, residents of hurricane-prone areas usually can relax.

Not this year. Paloma formed as a tropical depression off Nicaragua on Wednesday morning, and reached tropical storm strength Thursday. That night it reached hurricane strength, and then turned northeast toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba. It peaked at Category 4 strength on Saturday, and weakened slightly before hitting Cuba.

Only one other storm has been recorded at Category 4 in November, Hurricane Lenny the 12th and final tropical storm of 1999. Lenny was slightly stronger, just short of becoming a devastating Category 5 storm.

Paloma is the 16th named storm of this year, and the fifth to reach at least Category 3. Hurricane Bertha churned the mid-Atlantic in July, Hurricane Gustav hit Haiti, Cuba and Louisiana in August, Hurricane Ike clobbered Cuba and Texas in September, and Hurricane Omar in October brushed the edge of Puerto Rico.

Those big winds have packed a big punch. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Index, which measures total energy carried by tropical storms, is now nearly double the total for 2007, which saw 15 tropical storms in the Atlantic, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, both of which reached Category 5 over the Caribbean before hitting central America. This year's total includes 8 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

This year's 16 puts it fourth on the list since 1944, tied with 2003. Only three years had more tropical storms: 2005 with 28, 1995 with 19, and 1969, also with 19, although not all were named at the time.

Both Cuba and the US Gulf Coast hope Paloma is the season's last big wind. But it's only November 10. That worst of hurricane years, 2005, ended with Tropical Storm Zeta still blowing in the mid-Atlantic.

Jeff Hecht, New Scientist correspondent

courtesy of 'the new scientist'

[Cookie]

thanks for posting that good link gray wolf

[Somerset Squall]

It's an interesting record but it could simply be the tropical lows being in the right place at the right time. The Carribean is always the last area to cool down and has supported major hurricanes in November numerous times before. As Roger points out, July can easily also support a major hurricane, though I admit the location that Bertha did attain this status isn't all that common and she was helped by warmer than average waters. There has been five major hurricanes this year (one a month from July-Nov) which is just over half the record of eight, which occured all the way back in 1950. Like Roger, I'm surprised this 5 consecutive months record hasn't been broken before. It was just the timing of one a month that created a record, and a major hurricane in any of the months Jul-Nov is not unusual and has occured way back in times when Global Warming wasn't even though about.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Jethro advises (on the climate change thread) that U.S. lanfalls are in decline and so if that is your 'measure' then you will hear less and less (just snippits on the news with shots of flapping palms and displaced locals).

Just a quick question GW:

I fully confess that I don't know a great deal about hurricanes (I know a bit about how they form and stuff, but I don't know much about the historical data and so on), but if US landfalls are decreasing and landfalls further south are decreasing then presumably it's not that there are more hurricanes, it's that the storms are tracking further south.

With that in mind (and here coms the question) is the strength of these storms more to do with their tracks - warmer waters in the Caribbean than up the US eastern seaboard - than with global warming per se? Obviously whether or not the storms are tracking further south because of GW or not is another issue.

CB

[Chris Knight]

Doesn't look so much of a record if compared with

With the TDs and STS's inserted on the JHUAPL graph, it tends to make the mid 90's onward look rather more active than the previous years on this chart. All in the interests of making us aware of more severe weather being experienced, I guess...

with 2008 inserted, it looks like this:

[Roger J Smith]

The article about 2005 fails to acknowledge that the season continued beyond the Z storm into the Greek letters, I seem to recall we got about five of those too before Jan 2006 was finished.

This season is probably not quite done yet, I would expect perhaps two more named storms, possibly one of them a hurricane.

Late season hurricanes are no guarantee of global warming, though. December 1887 seemed to be the most active December in the record books, and the winter that followed in North America was quite cold, and featured the famous March blizzard that buried New York City in 3-4 feet of snow (March 11-12, 1888).

A move towards earlier hurricanes might be more convincing, but this does not really seem to have happened. Even so, one of the few early June hurricanes known was in 1816 near Florida at the same time that New England was getting a freak late snowfall and sharp frosts.

Many of these climate change vs severe storm arguments are weak to inconsequential when exposed to scientific logic of the sort accepted before 1990. I am not sure whether logic is even recognized in modern education, if so, it must be an illogical variant.

[HighPressure]

Doesn't look so much of a record if compared with

With the TDs and STS's inserted on the JHUAPL graph, it tends to make the mid 90's onward look rather more active than the previous years on this chart. All in the interests of making us aware of more severe weather being experienced, I guess...

with 2008 inserted, it looks like this:

Can I suggest you go compare this chart with that of average Ozone depletion size and depth. Ozone depletion is known to cause increased wind speeds in the Southern Oceans. We seem to have correlation between hurricane occurrences, global temps and Ozone depletion. I cannot except existing GW concept if these relationships are continued to be ignored!

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for all the effort Chris but I think we need to focus purely on 'major Hurricanes (Cat.3 or above)'.

The number of tropical depressions/storms that form is an indication of the 'environment' being conducive to storm formation (low wind shear at higher levels etc.).

I would be interested to see if the number of majors shows either a cyclic trend or one of general increase.

For those of us who watch the 'cane season we can vouch that some years can have lots of promising 'waves' roll of Africa but conditions across the Atlantic basin restricts there development. The conditions leading to poor storm formation are an important part of the NOAA 'forecast' for the season and so are well studies/known.

We may even wish to widen the remit of the thread to include the Pacific and the formation of 'super typhoons' in the thread. I remember ,a few years back? , a typhoon that was over half the size of the U.S. forming.....now that's big!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

My poor brain!!!

Jethro assured us that storm numbers affecting U.S. are reducing. I've looked for the evidence but can only find 'evidence' for increasing storm/Hurricane formation. Below is yet another 'recent' article;

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Riding Out the Worst Storms on Record

By Rick Jervis

October 23, 2008 7:22AM

Since 1995, there have been 207 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico -- a 68 percent increase from the previous 13 years, according to statistics from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Of those storms, 111 were hurricanes, a 75 percent increase over the previous period.

More frequent and powerful hurricanes from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico since the mid-1990s have created one of the most dangerous and costliest storm eras in recorded history, a USA TODAY analysis of weather data shows.

Since 1995, there have been 207 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico -- a 68% increase from the previous 13 years, according to statistics from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Of those storms, 111 were hurricanes, a 75% increase over the previous period.

This year, with just over one month left in the Atlantic hurricane season, there have been 15 named storms, seven of which have been hurricanes.

The latest to make U.S. landfall were Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which battered the Louisiana and Texas coasts last month, destroyed billions of dollars' worth of homes and businesses, and caused deluges as far inland as Missouri and Chicago.

"We've had quite an intense increase in hurricane activity," said Kevin Trenberth, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "We may be in this cycle for another 20 years."

The increased populations in coastal communities and the loss of wetlands, which serve as a natural buffer against hurricanes, mean the USA is confronting one of the more dangerous and expensive hurricane periods ever, Trenberth said.

2005 Shatters Record

Coastal communities enjoyed a relatively calm period for hurricanes from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. Then, in 1995, the Atlantic produced 19 named storms, 11 of them hurricanes, creating the busiest season since 1933, according to NOAA statistics.

The record was shattered in 2005, when 28 named storms formed. More than half were hurricanes. One of them was Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into the Gulf Coast just east of New Orleans and created the costliest disaster in U.S. history.

"It's been busy, without a doubt," Shawn O'Neil, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Slidell, La. "A lot of conversation here has been about the change in philosophy. People are evacuating more than ever before. You can't help but notice it."

The increased activity has also led to increased federal relief. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has spent more than $63billion since 1988 in emergency recovery and public assistance funds following hurricanes and tropical storms. So far this year, the agency has spent $80million on emergency storm relief, according to FEMA.

Some meteorologists say the increased storm activity is caused by a naturally occurring cycle of activity that hatches more storms in the Atlantic.

"These are likely due to a natural climate fluctuation in the Atlantic," said Chris Landsea, a scientist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Kerry Emanuel, a scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has studied climate effect on hurricanes, says global warming and human-caused climate change is contributing. But Landsea has said evidence that global warming is affecting hurricanes "is pretty darn tiny."

More Powerful, Persistent

The intensity and reach of recent storms also pose a new challenge.

"Storms are not just making landfall and going away the way they did in the past," Trenberth said. "Somehow these storms are able to live longer today."

In August, meteorologists across the country watched in amazement as Tropical Storm Fay crisscrossed Florida a record-breaking four times before dispersing, Trenberth said.

Gustav traveled all the way to Baton Rouge, more than 100 miles from the coast, with hurricane-force winds, surprising thousands of evacuees who had fled there from southern Louisiana. Remnants of Gustav and Ike dumped rain more than 1,000 miles inland, Trenberth said.

[Solar Cycles]

I'm sorry GW but I can't see the point in this thread, for all your scaremongering, this year as been a relatively quiet Hurricane season. How many Hurricanes where there exactly?

[pottyprof]

Interesting read GW..

The only thing I'm going to say is that we don't have a long enough record to say that this is unusual. Okay, it fits in with some thinking reagarding warming but how close is that link?

In the whole scheme of things, hurricanes are fairly rare and we are still learning some of the processes involved.

The problem at the moment is there are so many unusual things happening within our global climate and there is no clear indication as to if this is just a natural "blip".