Met Office Winter Forecast

[Paul_1978]

The lastest Met Office long range winter forecast has just been issued:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

I have to say this is the most vague forecast I have ever seen. They are not giving much away, so maybe they are not too sure themselves.

For cold lovers, I feel the signs are promising as they say that January will be "below average" and February "near average", although precipitation will be "below average".

All the best

Paul

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The lastest Met Office long range winter forecast has just been issued:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

I have to say this is the most vague forecast I have ever seen. They are not giving much away, so maybe they are not too sure themselves.

For cold lovers, I feel the signs are promising as they say that January will be "below average" and February "near average", although precipitation will be "below average".

All the best

Paul

This is very good news for those of us who are cold lovers - and quite a backtrack on the initial forecast

I think it also gives some kudos to GP in his recent thoughts that January was looking colder than initially believed. Hopefully it will verify and we can enjoy a 'real' January' for once.

We are well on the way to a below average December and if the rest of the winter went as predicted here, then the overall outcome would mean two back to back below average seasons, which no one would have dared to predict earlier this year. Bring it on!

Edited December 22, 2008 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Iceberg]

An interesting update the higher precip in Southern Europe would indicate similar conditions associated with a southerly jet or east west Med LP's.

Very little detail but what they've said is very very encouraging.

[Glacier Point]

This is stunning from the Metoffice. Two years ago we had seminars arranged in anticipation of a cold winter. Now, we get a brief line or two - what's going on ?

The end of January is looking a little more high pressure dominated and potentially less cold but a surface inversion could complicate things. Into February, the mean ridge looks like moving back to the central Atlantic - which could repeat December's pattern of polar incursions and put an average forecast under threat - although this will ultimatley be shaped by how the polar stratosphere behaves in the next coupe of weeks.

All of this basically reaffirms my view that a lot of seasonal forecasts struggle in he absence of a strong ENSO signal.

[cj114]

Could they be anymore Vague????

[johnny1972]

Could they be anymore Vague????

Well its a bit more specific in that it isnt the usual - temps over NW Europe inc the UK will be close to or slightly above the norm. At least they have broken down the 2 remaining winter months and stuck their neck out abit by saying January will be below average and February average. If that was the case taken with DEC so far it will be without doubt a below average winter temp wise which is something not seen on these shores for quite a while. I think cold lovers should be very pleased with this. The Met Office wouldnt be anymore specific than what theyve issued today.

[tundra]

This is stunning from the Metoffice. Two years ago we had seminars arranged in anticipation of a cold winter. Now, we get a brief line or two - what's going on ?

The end of January is looking a little more high pressure dominated and potentially less cold but a surface inversion could complicate things. Into February, the mean ridge looks like moving back to the central Atlantic - which could repeat December's pattern of polar incursions and put an average forecast under threat - although this will ultimatley be shaped by how the polar stratosphere behaves in the next coupe of weeks.

All of this basically reaffirms my view that a lot of seasonal forecasts struggle in he absence of a strong ENSO signal.

Yes i was thinking the exact same thing when i read it. At the seminar they also talked about how 10" of snow equals 1"of rain implying that although rainfall was expected to be below normal,it could still be fairly snowy.

Its as if they want to sneak this in via the back door. Very early to say but this winter could end up going down as a cold winter.

[karyo]

Fantastic news!

I was expecting a backtrack from them but not to such an extend! What happened to the above average January and February?

I'm really pleased with the above average rainfall and temperature forecast for Southeast Europe indicating low pressure there preventing the High pressure further north from sinking! It sounds like an easterly month.

And then February doesn't sound bad either - near average. This means potentially another interesting winter month.

Karyo

[TEITS]

What excellent news.

You have to take your hat off to the likes of GP, BFTP, RJS. I know it hasn't happened yet but the fact the Met O have changed their mind is incredible forecasting from the NW members.

What I find fasinating is GP, BFTP, RJS use completely different methods and yet came to the same conclusions. Maybe this is the secret of making a successful LRF by using as many different methods as possible.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, those alternative forecasting methods of theirs went bravely against a wealth of meteorological expectations for this winter back in the late autumn .

[kold weather]

Met Office had no choice to really make a below average call to Jan given all the models and teleconnections upstream are suggestive of a cold flow holding with higher pressure always close to the UK, at times drifting far enough NW to drag in a N flow.

[Shunter]

A little timely reminder to what the Daily Express was showing at the end of last year...........

http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/29879

And we all know what happened thereafter

[mcweather]

Whilst not wishing to show disrespect to the Met office who IMHO do a pretty good job, I do wish they would have the courage to point out that the Dec 22nd update is a massive divergence from their original winter forecast.

The original was that winter temps were most likely to be at or above average. December despite this current mild snap is likely to come in below average and now they expect Jan to be below average as well.

They begrudgingly went for a chilly December only at the very last moment ( ie their late November update)

Over the years they have always been quite bullish when their winter forecastS have come in on target so it would be nice to see them be as bullish about admitting that this time they might not have got it right.

This is not an anti Met Office post just an observation

[Don]

Well, I have to say that I'm very pleased with this updated forecast . I did feel they would go for a colder outlook this update, but didn't expect them to go for a cold January. I thought at best, they would go for close to average temperatures in January, but still a milder February. Lets hope this update proves to be correct!

Edited December 22, 2008 by Don

[Nick L]

Well the Met Office have changed their tune massively! An overall colder than average winter, fantastic! Seems like an eternity since we had a cold January. An average February is still pretty cold so bring it on I say! Or could they go for the home run and call a below average Feb...nah that's being greedy.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yep! step by step the METO are following to the tune of the pied pipers cold flute, but that doesn't set anything in stone. Yes it is very vague though, this month has been on the cold side (until recently) but have we seen any snow? I'd like to see a properly cold month, all good though. I'd like to have a few days off work through unpassable roads, something that hasn't happened for over a decade.

[PB22]

I will reserve judgement on all forecasts until after the winter. No-one can be congratulated or criticised beforehand.

[Snowaddict]

Look at the Latest UK Met Winter Update in light of the possible developments coming up: To me, this suggests the possibility of blocked conditions: :lol:

Temperature

Mean temperatures are likely to be average or below average for the rest of winter over the UK

Rainfall

Over the UK, precipitation for the rest of winter is most likely to be average, or below average.

Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.

Edited January 22, 2009 by Snowaddict

[Don]

Not a bad forecast :lol: but why no mention of the rest of Europe?

If this forecast comes of, this Winter has very good chance of being the coldest since 1995/96. Not bad, but would be nice to see more in the way of snow during February.

[MikeC]

Met Office Winter Update

Quite possibly the worst forecast I have ever seen. I think a kid could go outside, look at the sky and come up with something better than that.

Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2008/9

Temperature

Mean temperatures are likely to be average or below average for the rest of winter over the UK.

Rainfall

Over the UK, precipitation for the rest of winter is most likely to be average, or below average.

Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.

Edited January 22, 2009 by MikeC

[SMU]

The JMA site is producing reports on 'live' progress (so to speak). It is basically following the ECM forecast very well, and worth bearing in mind where that is heading. There are going to many more of those little JMA reports coming in.

This is barely the beginning of the next model rollercoaster. :lol:

Looks like the METO are full of 'cold optimism' this morning- with their mid winter update- looks like the are following the Stratospheric warming forecasts & the ECM ensembles-

S

Edited January 22, 2009 by Steve Murr

[noel]

see the met office forecast for the rest of winter is out, seems very vague in detail, but at least average temps at best, so even if the models are showing slighty above average temps, met office say no ?

Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2008/9

Temperature

Mean temperatures are likely to be average or below average for the rest of winter over the UK.

Rainfall

Over the UK, precipitation for the rest of winter is most likely to be average, or below average.

Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.