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Will Hand's Forecasts...


Neilsouth

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    As for the outlook, still pretty consistent from all models (even GFS coming

    more into line) of an increasingly cold easterly flow with risk of gales in

    the SW making it bitterly cold. Dartmoor, the east coast of Devon and

    Cornwall will have significant below zero wind chill. Eventually day maxes

    of 1-3C will be common by the weekend. Chance of snow grains in southern

    counties and far SW. (Cornwall may see some rain/snow from continental cold

    pool as it tracks west over France). OTOH Scotland could have some beautiful

    dry & sunny winter days, especially in the mountains above the inversion

    where it could feel quite warm in the sun! So at least a week of cold raw

    easterlies after Boxing Day looks on the cards with a gradual fall of

    pressure from the SW and that's when it will get really interesting as

    milder air tries to push in as we get into 2009 .....

    Will Hand on uk sci weather.

    Mods told me to post it here :D

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    Will Hand on uk sci weather.

    Mods told me to post it here :D

    well thats the best post i have seen for this neck of the woods :D:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    Well what a set of model runs today, a lot of eye candy for cold weather

    fans and all to play for even if it is in Fanatasy Island, yes I've been

    reading the TWO board LOL :-))

    Remember ECMWF has hinted retrogression for a while now and now ensembles

    and other models are backing this up with a high transferring to

    Greenland/Iceland area by New Year opening the door for a long cold spell

    with some proper snow over the UK in January. This might get serious, but

    too early to tell that yet, still a chance it won't happen but it has to be

    up to 60% it will occur in some form or other.

    All eyes now on the next 12Z ECMWF run.

    COME ON :-)

    Now where did I put my *big* axe?

    Will

    :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    Well as predicted the cold weather has duly arrived now despite 850hPa

    temperatures and 1000-500 thickness being well up (as explained earlier).

    And it is going to stay cold and probably get colder as deep cold air starts

    to advect SSW'wards later this week.

    We now have a distorted omega block with the jet splitting. One portion

    heads north from Hudson Bay rounding Greenland maintaining the

    Greenland-Iceland block, the other part heads east along roughly 50N. Both

    these jets will have a part to play in the outlook.

    The northern portion will help maintain the block by bringing lower PV air

    northwards but then as it comes south again to east of Iceland this will

    spin up depressions due to high PV coming south and the latitude effect.

    The southern portion will trigger depressions in the normal way which should

    mostly dive SE'wards into Biscay/Spain. However, ...

    Next weekend into Monday the northern part has every chance of developing a

    North Sea low veering the wind and advecting sub 516DAM air into UK bringing

    widespread heavy snow into eastern and northern areas and later the SE. I

    rate this as a 50% chance. The southern jet will always offer the

    possibility of milder Atlantic air pushing into SW England as a low runs

    along the Channel followed by another surge of very cold air from the north.

    This would give rain in the SW with heavy snow above 250m asl but heavy snow

    over Wales and Midlands and later SE England. I rate this as a 30% chance.

    So up to the weekend mainly dry and cold with occasional flurries of light

    sleet or snow and a lot of cloud with a few breaks at times, but then by

    next Monday ...

    50% chance heavy snow coming down from northeast

    30% chance rain turning to snow coming up from SW

    20% staying mainly dry everywhere.

    So there you have my theme, staying cold with an increasing risk of heavy

    snow from the weekend onwards.

    Northern Ireland, NW England possibly seeing least. Low lying parts of SW

    England likely to have rain or sleet rather than snow unless the system from

    the northeast develops more.

    I shall not update on every toss and turn of the GFS or other models it is

    understanding the broad picture that is the key and that is what I and Joe

    laminate floori always aim to do.

    Ciao,

    Will

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