Arctic Ice 2009

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/Salmon-Hydropower/...efings_3_08.ppt

Start at the top as I feel that I've been 'blogged' and not 'papered'

The 'recent' short phase PDO shifts have led to the the question of the impact of AGW on 'phase changes' as noted above with both '4 year' flip flops happened in the last 10 years (lots of stuff happening in 'the last 10yrs eh?) impacting upon the salmon fisheries. NOAA highlighting the need for rapid response, in the industries impacted, to these 'new' short phases'.

As an aside I wondered if ,not only the PDO inpacts Nina intensities but ,like a 2 way street, Strong Nina's impact on the PDO index (I only mention it as the 'high index' numbers where at the end of this past Nina' and the 98' index 'flip flopped' with the crash from 'to Nina' in 98')

I'll carry on digging but tend to feel that along with the recent climatic alterations in the Arctic we are now seeing (top down) impacts on the PDO behaviour (as predicted) with the Nino/Nina shift (to near permanent Nino conditions) as a final phase later on down the line?

[Nick B]

http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/Salmon-Hydropower/...efings_3_08.ppt

Start at the top as I feel that I've been 'blogged' and not 'papered'

The 'recent' short phase PDO shifts have led to the the question of the impact of AGW on 'phase changes' as noted above with both '4 year' flip flops happened in the last 10 years (lots of stuff happening in 'the last 10yrs eh?) impacting upon the salmon fisheries. NOAA highlighting the need for rapid response, in the industries impacted, to these 'new' short phases'.

As an aside I wondered if ,not only the PDO inpacts Nina intensities but ,like a 2 way street, Strong Nina's impact on the PDO index (I only mention it as the 'high index' numbers where at the end of this past Nina' and the 98' index 'flip flopped' with the crash from 'to Nina' in 98')

I'll carry on digging but tend to feel that along with the recent climatic alterations in the Arctic we are now seeing (top down) impacts on the PDO behaviour (as predicted) with the Nino/Nina shift (to near permanent Nino conditions) as a final phase later on down the line?

Have lurked for some time now in a few of the areas of the forum. Good to see plenty of lively discussion here.

Would like to respond to the dierction this is going with a few questions and musings...

1/

[Nick B]

http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/Salmon-Hydropower/...efings_3_08.ppt

Start at the top as I feel that I've been 'blogged' and not 'papered'

The 'recent' short phase PDO shifts have led to the the question of the impact of AGW on 'phase changes' as noted above with both '4 year' flip flops happened in the last 10 years (lots of stuff happening in 'the last 10yrs eh?) impacting upon the salmon fisheries. NOAA highlighting the need for rapid response, in the industries impacted, to these 'new' short phases'.

As an aside I wondered if ,not only the PDO inpacts Nina intensities but ,like a 2 way street, Strong Nina's impact on the PDO index (I only mention it as the 'high index' numbers where at the end of this past Nina' and the 98' index 'flip flopped' with the crash from 'to Nina' in 98')

I'll carry on digging but tend to feel that along with the recent climatic alterations in the Arctic we are now seeing (top down) impacts on the PDO behaviour (as predicted) with the Nino/Nina shift (to near permanent Nino conditions) as a final phase later on down the line?

Ok... didn't realise the tab button sends your response!!

1/ A brief glance at the chart used to show the PDO shifts and 'flips' would not convince me that the overall direction is not moving into a big PDO -ve regardless of the two 4-year 'flips'. They don't appear to have much amplitude anyway. Of course, I haven't seen the individual monthly values for those 4 years, but I would actually back the next few in 2009 to re-invigorate the -ve direction, even if it takes a few months to strengthen.

2/ It seems to me that all these various forces impact eachother to some extent, but that we are only on the edge of beginning to understand how. I am not convinced by the CO2 theory being as big an influence as is being touted by many. Light energy from the sun comes as photons of different levels of energy and CO2 only absorbs specific frequencies, releasing the energy as heat in the atmosphere, as I understand it. As far as I can see, the amount of difference that increasing CO2 from its current level to even 4 or 5 times as much would simply not have as huge effect as some people would have you believe.

3/ Deforestation is, I suspect a bigger player than is given emphasis.

4/ Many posts I have seen only want to look at maybe the last 200 years (in 30 year blocks, due to th tradition of handling the data we have in those chunks) or over, say, the last 300 million years, when the continental shape of the planet would have meant a markedly different climate anyway. Is the reason no-one looks at the last 500k to 2M years, for instance, due to the difficulty of obtaining useful and reliable data? Can geological data help in that area? It appears there is an awful lot of clutching at straws going on, picking data from whichever useful source can bolster one side of the argument.

Having looked at these points, I am sure this will be moved to a slightly different discussion, but it was the reference to the PDO 'flips' that triggered it.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Nick and welcome! I'm going to pop a reply over in 'general climate change'.

[jethro]

Ian, I can't get that link to open

[Gray-Wolf]

Ian, I can't get that link to open

Sorry ,it seems to be a 'power point' file.

[jethro]

Sorry ,it seems to be a 'power point' file.

Bugger! Haven't got p p, I'll try to find the info later.

[Chris Knight]

Bugger! Haven't got p p, I'll try to find the info later.

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/thankyo...displayLang=en#powerpoint download

should do you for powerpoint

[Gray-Wolf]

We seem to be midst another 'stall'. I wonder how long this one will go on for?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the 'stall' continues and we are now falling below last years extents (and 'mid pack' for the 'IJIS' pack). I cannot think of a poorer synopsis for this coming melt season than where we are now with less 'volume' than ever before ,thin pack ice across the geographic pole and a year forecast to have higher global temps than any this century baring 05'.

The talk (on other boards) is of a melt out along the Labrador coast but this seems to big to be covered by such a localised event. Folk are mooting the reinvigorated gulf stream (now the cold water subduction is back to strength) pulling warmer waters up that coast.

With southern ice about to drop below the 79'-2000 average as well we may find that march gives us the lowest 'global' ice extent figure on record too.

We have to remember that this is with all the 'cold' chips being played too! What would we be looking at with a positive PDO???

[Gray-Wolf]

As an 'add on ' to the above. Many of the 'gain' areas (during PDO negative) are in open water and so face early disruption should spring (in that region) be 'stormy'. Will we see an early start to this years melt as chunks of pack are smashed off by passing low pressure systems (as the jet migrates north)?

[jethro]

Dunno, try this..

[Gray-Wolf]

Dunno, try this..

I use a bucket of water and a full moon....sssshhh!

[jethro]

So what's gone wrong; hole in the bucket, muddy water or cloudy nights?

According to Svensmark, the Arctic melts, Antarctica gets cooler, Antarctica warms up, the Arctic gets cold....

If I were you, I'd stop gazing in that bucket and get knitting woolly jumpers.

[Iceberg]

That's called seasons though Jethro. ! Only Joking.

I don't think there is any sense in Svensmark's comment though, If you look at the maximum about of ice in 2008 it was the lowest maximum for 20 years and the third lowest minimum for 20 years for Antarctica.

If what's he's saying is right you would expect a big ice year for the arctic and we know it was the 2nd lowest minimum for 20 years and the 4th lowest maximum. They both had a very poor year....

If you cross plot Arctic anomalies with Antarctic this trend doesn't really match.

[MR EXTREMES]

more polulation in the northern hemisphere and the global conveyor runs closer to the arctic in theory and if the tropical area of the conveyor is warmer due to more salinity.

and if its correct the conveyor has increased in strength then melts will be much higher.

i think the outlook for the arctic is very very grimm and i see no turning back from this.

so slightly of topic could this be the start of some extreme warming in northen hemisphere more so for our neck of the woods i notice oslo has had fairly warm winters for years now just like us.

but antarctic is different its somewhat out the way but i was reading its getting warmer here to.

but theres is much more mass to melt and the conveyor seems to be a little futher from the antarctic.

with also futher travel from tropical regions towards antarctic. :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

With southern ice levels about to go below the 79'-2000 average and the arctic ice (well below average ice levels...-ve PDO or not) currently stagnant, or even in retreat, Svensmark seems more 'wide of the'mark!

The EAIS will not remain insulated from global temps for long. Either the Ozone hole mends (over the next 50 years) or the potential difference (between global temps and East Antarctica) will become so great that mother nature will find a way through the 'block'. This may be what we are witnessing today with SST's in ice free areas (basically from the peninsula though to the west of the Ross sea) showing strong positive anoms (not good for the shelfs along that stretch....Wilkins, Abbot,Pine island,E. Getz, W. Getz,E.Ross, W.Ross).

The increase in cold water subduction at the northern end of the N.A.D. can only serve to increase the flow of warm waters northwards and seeing as the ice losses around Greenland have already been put down to the 'warm waters' present this does not sound good.

[Iceberg]

There has been some talk again about Polyakov.

Just for a few references.

His main theory is that warmer waters are entering the Arctic Circle and melting ice. This has happened before (1930's) but what has happened in the past decade has not happened before.

The main conclusion that is normally drawn from his work is that natural processes have played a role in the Arctic melting but that these have been enhanced by the AGW warm up in the Arctic to the point where in the next 5 years or so the Arctic Pole will be ice free in the summer.

http://www.innovations-report.de/html/beri...icht-71287.html

Polyakov's 2003 work is often quoted but the measurements stop in 2001 and so don't include the raft of melting that has occured since.

There is a very good correlation between PDO and Arctic Ice extent.

http://research.iarc.uaf.edu/multidecadal_...ility/index.php

But it still doesn't explain what has happen more recently.

[jethro]

There has been some talk again about Polyakov.

Just for a few references.

His main theory is that warmer waters are entering the Arctic Circle and melting ice. This has happened before (1930's) but what has happened in the past decade has not happened before.

The main conclusion that is normally drawn from his work is that natural processes have played a role in the Arctic melting but that these have been enhanced by the AGW warm up in the Arctic to the point where in the next 5 years or so the Arctic Pole will be ice free in the summer.

http://www.innovations-report.de/html/beri...icht-71287.html

Polyakov's 2003 work is often quoted but the measurements stop in 2001 and so don't include the raft of melting that has occured since.

There is a very good correlation between PDO and Arctic Ice extent.

http://research.iarc.uaf.edu/multidecadal_...ility/index.php

But it still doesn't explain what has happen more recently.

The main conclusions are that AGW MAY have enhanced the warming with adamant statement of " recent years cannot be used to extrapolate future trends".

Iceberg, do you know of any research which suggests Arctic ice melt is/has or could drive the PDO?

[Iceberg]

No I think it's the other way round Jethro, that PDO can effect Arctic ice melt.

The second link I gave has a nice graph which seems to support this. The question is have we passed a threshold of no return unlike in the 40's where ice very quickly recovered.

Yes the May or have been are dependent on your view of AGW and the interpretation of Polyakov's works. From memory I think Igor said that in his opinion what has happened recently increases the chances of external extra forces at work, but he isn't a fan of AGW. Equally no other method has been evidenced and we know that air mass warming of the arctic has been pretty rampant in the last 10 years along with Sea current warming.

[jethro]

No I think it's the other way round Jethro, that PDO can effect Arctic ice melt.

The second link I gave has a nice graph which seems to support this. The question is have we passed a threshold of no return unlike in the 40's where ice very quickly recovered.

Yes the May or have been are dependent on your view of AGW and the interpretation of Polyakov's works. From memory I think Igor said that in his opinion what has happened recently increases the chances of external extra forces at work, but he isn't a fan of AGW. Equally no other method has been evidenced and we know that air mass warming of the arctic has been pretty rampant in the last 10 years along with Sea current warming.

No, that is not a personal interpretation or based upon my "take on AGW" :

"The complicated nature of arctic temperature and pressure variations makes understanding of possible causes of the variability, and evaluation of the anthropogenic warming effect most difficult."

http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu/~igor/res...ata/sat_slp.php

I agree the PDO can effect ice melt, I've never heard it mentioned the other way around before. Graywolf has been speculating that the loss of ice/salinity reduction and SSTs associated with this could tip the PDO to the point that a negative phase is no longer sustainable. I wanted to check with someone who supports his stance of pro AGW; you seemed the most obvious candidate, given your thread on the PDO.

[Iceberg]

I wasn't saying your take personally Jethro, just in general.

It's true that a change to the THC might effect the PDO phase but I wouldn't know how, why or to what degree.

[jethro]

I wasn't saying your take personally Jethro, just in general.

It's true that a change to the THC might effect the PDO phase but I wouldn't know how, why or to what degree.

Thanks for that; I think he's barking up the wrong tree.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just trying to find reasons why we are faced with the above at the end of January! All the folk bemoaning 'a cold winter' can see just where that cold is being displaced from! Not normal, not normal at all.

[Chris Knight]

Just trying to find reasons why we are faced with the above at the end of January! All the folk bemoaning 'a cold winter' can see just where that cold is being displaced from! Not normal, not normal at all.

What's all that purple stuff over the anomalously warm methane clathrate fields of Siberian permafrost GW?