Latest Gray/kolztback Atlantic Hurricane 2009 Prediction

[Iceberg]

Here's there latest prediction from the quite controversial pair.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forec...009/apr2009.pdf

It Calls for an average season with an average probability of a US strike.

12 Named Storms with only 6 Hurricanes

This is a largish reduction from the previous forecast and is mainly based on the formation of a moderate El Nino.

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting read, thanks for posting Iceberg. Similar in some ways to the Accuweather forecast, calling for an average season. We will see.

[Cookie]

more and more im starting to feel this could be a quite year.

[Somerset Squall]

more and more im starting to feel this could be a quite year.

Could be, but we've got to remember long range hurricane predictions need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, after 2005, these guys went for a very active 2006 season- and 2006 was everything but very active. We all know hurricanes are very difficult to predict, so predicting these things at long range with accuracy is nigh on impossible.

[kold weather]

I don't think its going to be a quiet season but I agree with the other forecasts, I do suspect at least a weak El Nino will shut down the season a good month or two early.

Personally my numbers are 12/6/3 but with pretty much all that activity before October even begins.

Also should be noted the sort of numbers he suggests aren't too different from 1985....which whilst being average in numbers, was a very active landfalling season:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[Cookie]

still a good size season to what i thought with all this talk of a short season.