Moderate Risk Issued For Gulf States.

[NL]

A moderate risk has been issued by the national weather service for Se/Texas Louisiana and Mississippi. The moderate risk was warranted for expectations of strong severe supercells embedded along the linear convective squall line. Concerns over the elevated mixed level cap as this could limit the potential for storms to be sustained.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0732 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND

MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. AS

UPR LOW EVOLVES OVER THE GULF OF ME AND NM UPR LOW CONTINUES E/NE

INTO THE PLNS. THE NM SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NW OK THIS EVE...BEFORE

TURNING NE INTO ERN KS EARLY MON. 110 KT JET STREAK IN BASE OF

TROUGH SHOULD OVERSPREAD NE TX LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE

SUBTROPICAL JET IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED SLIGHTLY S AND E ACROSS THE

NWRN GULF.

AT THE SFC...MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW NOW OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD

EDGE SLOWLY E ALONG THE RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE

ARKLATEX EARLY MON. FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE WAVE MAY FORM LATER

THIS MORNING NEAR INTERSECTION OF OVERNIGHT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED TX SQLN

WITH SHALLOW WARM FRONT OVER THE UPR TX CSTL PLN. THE WAVE SHOULD

CONTINUE NE INTO NRN MS EARLY MON.

...SE TX INTO LWR MS VLY...

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA

1.25 INCHES/ EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN FROM THE

WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER N

AND...WITH TIME...NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS

40-50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS SLOWLY E AHEAD OF NM UPR TROUGH.

SHALLOW WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLL ESE THROUGH HOU/GLS

INTO THE NWRN GULF SHOULD MOVE STEADILY NE ACROSS SE TX AND

SRN/CNTRL LA AS COLD POOL-ASSISTED SQLN CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS

CNTRL AND E TX.

COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW MAY

SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE REGION TO ALLOW EXISTING ELEVATED

SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF TO BECOME NEARLY

SFC-BASED BY LATE THIS MORNING. OTHER NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY

FORM BY EARLY AFTN INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA. AT THE SAME

TIME...SFC HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH NM UPR

VORT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF STORMS WITHIN SRN END OF

SQLN NOW OVER CNTRL TX. FARTHER N...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL

MAY SPREAD NWD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR

AND MS.

WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE TX AND LA WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...WITH 40+ KT SLY LLJ VEERING TO 60+ KT SW FLOW

AT 500 MB. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPR DIFFLUENCE N OF

SUBTROPICAL JET...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN

ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN REGARDING OVERALL

DEGREE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN /1/ PRESENCE OF EML CAP THAT COULD LIMIT

POTENTIAL FOR WAA STORMS TO BECOME SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED...AND /2/

LIKELY PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED

SQLN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS...A

MDT RISK APPEARS JUSTIFIED.

ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND

EVE FROM SE TX INTO SRN/CNTRL LA...A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES

AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY MON FROM SE LA

INTO SRN/ERN MS AND WRN AL.

...N TX/SRN OK...

BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND RAIN/TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX/OK...A SEPARATE

AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM BENEATH UPR LOW DRY SLOT AS IT CROSSES THE

RED RVR VLY. HEATING BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD 500 TO

1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH AMPLE LARGELY

UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR OVER THE RED RVR VLY AREA S OF UPR

LOW...A FEW STRONG/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY

DMGG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/12/2009

[dogs32]

143 Tornado warning so far but no Tornado yet...

[Nick F]

Really crap chase country for today's moderate risk area ... and I can't imagine many would bother tracking these storms in the endless forests and swamps of Louisiana and Sern Mississippi unless they are insane - especially with parameters favourable for strong tornadoes!

Anyway, rather messy line of storms shifting east into Louisiana from TX now - a more discrete tor warned cell east of Houston, and towards the tail end near the Gulf Coast I would expect to see those discrete supercells develop some tornadoes later ... maybe New Orleans in the firing line later! Otherwise they'll be difficult to spot in the swamps!

[dogs32]

I think most have the same idea Nick as I have only found one at present streaming at

http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

watches have increased to larger areas

[Mammatus]

severestudios.com - steve polley chasing

He seems to be travelling west, southwest just passing through Wichita Falls (inbetween Fort Worth and Oklahoma City).

Some threatening cloudscapes ahead......................speed up Stevey!! :lol:

Mark Hill is not far from Steve Polley being situated NW of Wichita Falls rather than SW where Steve currently is at 21:48 British time....

Seasons

[dogs32]

severestudios.com - steve polley chasing

He seems to be travelling west, southwest just passing through Wichita Falls (inbetween Fort Worth and Oklahoma City).

Some threatening cloudscapes ahead......................speed up Stevey!! :lol:

Mark Hill is not far from Steve Polley being situated NW of Wichita Falls rather than SW where Steve currently is at 21:48 British time....

Seasons

have you a picture with Steve Polley's cam...all Ive got is a RADAR image.. :lol:

edit..now I got pic.............nice looking clouds

[Mammatus]

Steve Polley parked up now waiting for the storm to roll in. The radar echo's are dark red/pink, so I guess we should be seeing a strong storm through his live stream video during the next 15 minutes. Some awesome cloud structures!

Very lively in this area currently............

Seasons

Dogs32 Looking very threatening on Steve's video.....interesting times. Will we see a nado? <_<

[dogs32]

Steve Polley parked up now waiting for the storm to roll in. The radar echo's are dark red/pink, so I guess we should be seeing a strong storm through his live stream video during the next 15 minutes. Some awesome cloud structures!

Very lively in this area currently............

Seasons

Dogs32 Looking very threatening on Steve's video.....interesting times. Will we see a nado? <_<

yes looks very thundery on his cam...............sferics coming off that cell on radar...the Main Tornado threat is further East as far as I know at present

edit.I can see why a few are in this area now...seems to be an increase in shower development

lol.............did you see the bolt of lightning then anyone

[Mammatus]

yes looks very thundery on his cam...............sferics coming off that cell on radar...the Main Tornado threat is further East as far as I know at present

edit.I can see why a few are in this area now...seems to be an increase in shower development

lol.............did you see the bolt of lightning then anyone

Yes I did see that Dogs. :o

Steve has positioned himself perfectly now. He is now 100% in the firing line!! Thats just about where I'd park up, spark up and set the tri-pod up

This is great following his chase.......

Seasons

EDIT: He is off again, now this time I'm not sure why as the core of this storm (dark red radar echos) were heading bang on towards him <_< Maybe he has thrown the towel in

[Cookie]

its still good watching

[dogs32]

look at the size of this storm heading to New Orleans area .lol

Tornado 1 reported

1556 SYLVESTER WORTH GA 3153 8384 REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND DEBRIS IN THE CITY OF SYLVESTER. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.

[dogs32]

England is slightly smaller than the state of Florida.so that Bertha is huge

[dogs32]

new Tornado threat as another line develops

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)

[dogs32]

no.2

1911 BAXLEY APPLING GA 3176 8235 THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ON HUTCHINSON ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 15 AND LAMAR BLACK ROAD OFF U S 1. NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO (JAX)

edit

no.3

1935 4 SW DONALD LONG GA 3178 8190 TORNADO REPORTED ON EBENEZER ROAD. MOVING NORTHEAST. (CHS)

[dogs32]

Six Twisters in the end

1300 SLOCOMB GENEVA AL 3111 8559 TORNADO TOUCH DOWN SIGNIFCANT STRUCTUAL DAMAGE. BLUE BIRD LANE, CO ROAD 4 AND 9 (TAE)

1556 SYLVESTER WORTH GA 3153 8384 REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND DEBRIS IN THE CITY OF SYLVESTER. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL. (TAE)

1645 FITZGERALD BEN HILL GA 3171 8325 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED IN FITZGERALD. THE BRICK FRONT OF ONE BUILDING WAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. A FEW PIVOT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS WERE TOPPLED EAST OF TOWN. A STORM SUR (TAE)

1911 BAXLEY APPLING GA 3176 8235 THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ON HUTCHINSON ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 15 AND LAMAR BLACK ROAD OFF U S 1. NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO (JAX)

1935 4 SW DONALD LONG GA 3178 8190 TORNADO REPORTED ON EBENEZER ROAD. MOVING NORTHEAST. (CHS)

0149 10 ENE MANCHESTER COFFEE TN 3552 8592 SPOTTER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 55 BETWEEN SUMMITVILLE AND VIOLA (OHX)

with Golf Ball hail in a few places