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Moderate Risk Issued For Gulf States.


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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    A moderate risk has been issued by the national weather service for Se/Texas Louisiana and Mississippi. The moderate risk was warranted for expectations of strong severe supercells embedded along the linear convective squall line. Concerns over the elevated mixed level cap as this could limit the potential for storms to be sustained.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0732 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

    VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND

    MS...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

    FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND THE LWR MS VLY...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. AS

    UPR LOW EVOLVES OVER THE GULF OF ME AND NM UPR LOW CONTINUES E/NE

    INTO THE PLNS. THE NM SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NW OK THIS EVE...BEFORE

    TURNING NE INTO ERN KS EARLY MON. 110 KT JET STREAK IN BASE OF

    TROUGH SHOULD OVERSPREAD NE TX LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE

    SUBTROPICAL JET IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED SLIGHTLY S AND E ACROSS THE

    NWRN GULF.

    AT THE SFC...MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW NOW OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD

    EDGE SLOWLY E ALONG THE RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE

    ARKLATEX EARLY MON. FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE WAVE MAY FORM LATER

    THIS MORNING NEAR INTERSECTION OF OVERNIGHT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED TX SQLN

    WITH SHALLOW WARM FRONT OVER THE UPR TX CSTL PLN. THE WAVE SHOULD

    CONTINUE NE INTO NRN MS EARLY MON.

    ...SE TX INTO LWR MS VLY...

    SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA

    1.25 INCHES/ EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN FROM THE

    WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER N

    AND...WITH TIME...NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS

    40-50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS SLOWLY E AHEAD OF NM UPR TROUGH.

    SHALLOW WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLL ESE THROUGH HOU/GLS

    INTO THE NWRN GULF SHOULD MOVE STEADILY NE ACROSS SE TX AND

    SRN/CNTRL LA AS COLD POOL-ASSISTED SQLN CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS

    CNTRL AND E TX.

    COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW MAY

    SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE REGION TO ALLOW EXISTING ELEVATED

    SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF TO BECOME NEARLY

    SFC-BASED BY LATE THIS MORNING. OTHER NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY

    FORM BY EARLY AFTN INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA. AT THE SAME

    TIME...SFC HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH NM UPR

    VORT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF STORMS WITHIN SRN END OF

    SQLN NOW OVER CNTRL TX. FARTHER N...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL

    MAY SPREAD NWD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR

    AND MS.

    WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE TX AND LA WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

    SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...WITH 40+ KT SLY LLJ VEERING TO 60+ KT SW FLOW

    AT 500 MB. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPR DIFFLUENCE N OF

    SUBTROPICAL JET...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN

    ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN REGARDING OVERALL

    DEGREE OF SVR THREAT GIVEN /1/ PRESENCE OF EML CAP THAT COULD LIMIT

    POTENTIAL FOR WAA STORMS TO BECOME SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED...AND /2/

    LIKELY PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED

    SQLN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG

    EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM SE TX INTO PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS...A

    MDT RISK APPEARS JUSTIFIED.

    ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND

    EVE FROM SE TX INTO SRN/CNTRL LA...A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES

    AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY MON FROM SE LA

    INTO SRN/ERN MS AND WRN AL.

    ...N TX/SRN OK...

    BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND RAIN/TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX/OK...A SEPARATE

    AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM BENEATH UPR LOW DRY SLOT AS IT CROSSES THE

    RED RVR VLY. HEATING BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD 500 TO

    1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH AMPLE LARGELY

    UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR OVER THE RED RVR VLY AREA S OF UPR

    LOW...A FEW STRONG/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY

    DMGG WIND. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

    ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/12/2009

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Really crap chase country for today's moderate risk area ... and I can't imagine many would bother tracking these storms in the endless forests and swamps of Louisiana and Sern Mississippi unless they are insane - especially with parameters favourable for strong tornadoes!

    Anyway, rather messy line of storms shifting east into Louisiana from TX now - a more discrete tor warned cell east of Houston, and towards the tail end near the Gulf Coast I would expect to see those discrete supercells develop some tornadoes later ... maybe New Orleans in the firing line later! Otherwise they'll be difficult to spot in the swamps!

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    Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

    severestudios.com - steve polley chasing

    He seems to be travelling west, southwest just passing through Wichita Falls (inbetween Fort Worth and Oklahoma City).

    Some threatening cloudscapes ahead......................speed up Stevey!! :lol:

    Mark Hill is not far from Steve Polley being situated NW of Wichita Falls rather than SW where Steve currently is at 21:48 British time....

    Seasons

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
    severestudios.com - steve polley chasing

    He seems to be travelling west, southwest just passing through Wichita Falls (inbetween Fort Worth and Oklahoma City).

    Some threatening cloudscapes ahead......................speed up Stevey!! :lol:

    Mark Hill is not far from Steve Polley being situated NW of Wichita Falls rather than SW where Steve currently is at 21:48 British time....

    Seasons

    have you a picture with Steve Polley's cam...all Ive got is a RADAR image.. :lol:

    edit..now I got pic.............nice looking clouds

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    Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

    Steve Polley parked up now waiting for the storm to roll in. The radar echo's are dark red/pink, so I guess we should be seeing a strong storm through his live stream video during the next 15 minutes. Some awesome cloud structures!

    Very lively in this area currently............

    Seasons

    Dogs32 :good: Looking very threatening on Steve's video.....interesting times. Will we see a nado? <_<

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
    Steve Polley parked up now waiting for the storm to roll in. The radar echo's are dark red/pink, so I guess we should be seeing a strong storm through his live stream video during the next 15 minutes. Some awesome cloud structures!

    Very lively in this area currently............

    Seasons

    Dogs32 :good: Looking very threatening on Steve's video.....interesting times. Will we see a nado? <_<

    yes looks very thundery on his cam...............sferics coming off that cell on radar...the Main Tornado threat is further East as far as I know at present

    edit.I can see why a few are in this area now...seems to be an increase in shower development

    lol.............did you see the bolt of lightning then anyone

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    Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
    yes looks very thundery on his cam...............sferics coming off that cell on radar...the Main Tornado threat is further East as far as I know at present

    edit.I can see why a few are in this area now...seems to be an increase in shower development

    lol.............did you see the bolt of lightning then anyone

    Yes I did see that Dogs. :o

    Steve has positioned himself perfectly now. He is now 100% in the firing line!! Thats just about where I'd park up, spark up and set the tri-pod up

    This is great following his chase.......

    Seasons

    EDIT: He is off again, now this time I'm not sure why as the core of this storm (dark red radar echos) were heading bang on towards him <_< Maybe he has thrown the towel in :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    ECWV.jpg

    look at the size of this storm heading to New Orleans area .lol

    Tornado 1 reported

    1556 SYLVESTER WORTH GA 3153 8384 REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND DEBRIS IN THE CITY OF SYLVESTER. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    new Tornado threat as another line develops

    ww0151_radar_big.gif

    Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Mod (40%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

    Low (20%)

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    no.2

    1911 BAXLEY APPLING GA 3176 8235 THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ON HUTCHINSON ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 15 AND LAMAR BLACK ROAD OFF U S 1. NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO (JAX)

    edit

    no.3

    1935 4 SW DONALD LONG GA 3178 8190 TORNADO REPORTED ON EBENEZER ROAD. MOVING NORTHEAST. (CHS)

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    Six Twisters in the end

    1300 SLOCOMB GENEVA AL 3111 8559 TORNADO TOUCH DOWN SIGNIFCANT STRUCTUAL DAMAGE. BLUE BIRD LANE, CO ROAD 4 AND 9 (TAE)

    1556 SYLVESTER WORTH GA 3153 8384 REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND DEBRIS IN THE CITY OF SYLVESTER. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL. (TAE)

    1645 FITZGERALD BEN HILL GA 3171 8325 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED IN FITZGERALD. THE BRICK FRONT OF ONE BUILDING WAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. A FEW PIVOT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS WERE TOPPLED EAST OF TOWN. A STORM SUR (TAE)

    1911 BAXLEY APPLING GA 3176 8235 THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ON HUTCHINSON ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 15 AND LAMAR BLACK ROAD OFF U S 1. NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO (JAX)

    1935 4 SW DONALD LONG GA 3178 8190 TORNADO REPORTED ON EBENEZER ROAD. MOVING NORTHEAST. (CHS)

    0149 10 ENE MANCHESTER COFFEE TN 3552 8592 SPOTTER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 55 BETWEEN SUMMITVILLE AND VIOLA (OHX)

    with Golf Ball hail in a few places

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