East Pacific Invest Thread 2009

[Somerset Squall]

With the season starting in the middle of next month, it's possible for invests (disturbed areas suspect for TC development) to form in the area in the coming weeks. This thread is for discussing invests as and when they form.

[Cookie]

the season officially kicks off tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie.

The average number of storms per May is one overy other year. But will this year keep up the unusual trend and be the tenth May in a row to have a named storm? Waters are certainly warm enough to support development now.

[Iceberg]

Looking through the tropical models and I noticed a very good chance of the First East Pacific Storm of the season in the next few days

should be around 5-10N and 100-105W with the models developing it into a TD within 48 hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, a little later than expected but we now have invest 90E, a few hundred miles the south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Convection is increasing and is showing signs of rotation. The sea is hot, and shear is fairly low, which suggests there will be at least some slow development over the next day or so.

[Cookie]

invest 90E

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the image Cookie. It clearly shows 90E has changed little in organisation over the past 24hrs with convection remaining deep but disorganised. The system lacks structure and it looks like the are several circulations battling for dominance, which will hinder any fast development of the system. Shear remains low and waters warm, so further slow development is likely. The models are still fairly keen on development in this area next week.

It looks like that no TC's will form this month. This marks the first time in ten years May hasn't had a TC.

[Cookie]

do you think thats a bad sign then somerset?

[Somerset Squall]

Who knows? It's only the matter of 15 days (start of season till end of May) which doesn't really have any bearing on the season. However, it is said that there could be El Nino starting which may mean an above average East Pacific season and a below average Atlantic season based on trends.

[Cookie]

Who knows?

:lol: what the all powerful all knowing Yoda on hurricanes doesn't know :unsure: :lol:

joking lol

[Cookie]

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF

DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO

MEXICO REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF

ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO

10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cookie]

this system is as dead as a dodo

[Cookie]

we have 91E

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, this one looks pretty interesting. Convection is expanding and is showing signs of increased rotaion indicative of a developing circulation. Waters look warm enough for development (not the hottest in the basin but still ample) and shear looks pretty low at the moment too. NHC forecast a medium risk (30-50%) of this system developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs, and with the increased organisation and favourable environment I think they may upgrade to high risk soon. TD1 on the horizon perhaps?

[Cookie]

THERE IS A MEDIUM

CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cookie]

update, another system down the sink,

[Cookie]

looks a bit better then it did last night

[Somerset Squall]

That's why we can never say never with these systems Cookie :lol: . Thanks for the images.

Convection has become much more concentrated over the circulation of 91E overnight. Shear remains low and waters warm, I still think we may see the first tropical cyclone of the East Pacific season out of this one- the environment certainly is favourable. NHC still forecasting a medium risk (30-50%) of a tropical cyclone forming in the next 48hrs.

[Cookie]

we it was looking better, not so now

085

ABPZ20 KNHC 091733

TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN

TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAIN POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN

30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

91E is becoming much better organised again, with signs of strong rotation and increased convection. Waters remain warm enough to support further development on the westward track, and shear remains low. NHC have upgraded the risk of development to medium again (30-50%).

[Cookie]

its not giving up is it

[Somerset Squall]

Nice animation there Cookie, clearly shows the increasing organisation of the system.

91E is looking better and better. Convection is quite deep over the centre now and banding features are becoming more prominant.

[Somerset Squall]

91E has become less organised over the last 24hrs. Convection is decreasing and the LLC is losing definition. In addition, the invest is now moving north into an environment of increased shear, drier air and cooler sea temps. Development into a tropical depression appears less likely now.

[Cookie]

East pacific taking a long time to get going

The first tropical storm was named on

1988 - June 16

1993 - June 12

1994 - June 19*

1995 - June 15

1998 - June 13

1999 - June 18

* = Record

[Cookie]

92E