Tropical Cyclone Bijli

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94B has continued to get better organised overnight, and in the early hours, the first tropical cyclone of the 2009 North Indian tropical cyclone season was born. Deep convection is persisting over the well defined LLC, and banding features are improving, indicative of a strengthening storm. 01B will likely intensify through the next few days, as waters are very warm in the area, shear is low and at the moment, dual outflow channels are sustaining continued deep convection. JTWC are expecting a peak of 60kts by 48hrs, before intensity levels off due to increasing upper level convergence by 72hrs, which will cut off the poleward outflow channel and cause dry, stable air to be entrained into the storm. Equatorward outflow is expected to remain very good throughout the next three days which accounts for the forecast of steady intensity in the 48-72hr range as this outflow will offset the upper level convergence. 01B is currently moving northwestwards towards northern India, but is expected to recurve northeastwards over the next few days and enter the northern Bay of Bengal. Any landfall is uncertain as yet, but 01B will get pretty close to the northeast Indian coastline in a few days time so this system will definately need watching.

[Somerset Squall]

01B has strengthened this afternoon, and has been given the name Bijli. Intensity has increased to 40kts. Bijli is maintaining some deep convection near the centre, and some fragmented banding features around the peripheries of the storm. Bijli is expected to continue to intensify under favourable conditions of low shear, warm sea temps and good radial outflow. Bijli has moved northwards, and the outer rainbands are brushing the Indian coast, and as Bijli gets a little nearer, there could be some significant thunderstorms. In around 36hrs, Bijli will enter an area of upper level convergence which will halt intensification. Northeast India and southern Bangledesh are at risk of some heavy rain over the coming days, though Bijli isn't expected to make landfall, at least in the near term.

[Somerset Squall]

Intensity is now 45kts. Latest forecasts go for a landfall on the Bangladesh/Myanmar border as a 60kt system in 72hrs. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly where Bijli will make landfall as a slight deviation in track will make a big difference in just where the storm makes landfall.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

5 day track

sat image

thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

5 day track

sat image

thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

5 day track

sat image

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 16 Apr, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Bangladesh

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

update

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the images Cookie.

Bijli has maintained intensity over the last 24hrs. Deep convection continues to persist near the LLC but there is no sign of a neat central dense overcast feature and banding is limited to the western quadrant. Bijli may be ingesting some dry air from mainland India and it appears there is a lack of poleward outflow. However, equatorward outflow remains good and sea temps warm which has allowed Bijli to remain a 45kt storm. Bijli has begun to turn to the northeast as the subtropical ridge over Myanmar becomes the more dominant of the two ridges (the other is located over central India). As the ridge re-orientates to the south, Bijli will turn more to the east and is expected to make landfall on the Bangladesh/Myanmar border in around 48hrs time. Bijli will then begin to dissipate over land by 72hrs.

Bijli may intensify a little more, and JTWC continue to forecast a peak intensity of 60kts prior to landfall. However, if the dry air persists, Bijli may not get any stronger than it is now. The intensification is probably forecast due to the good equatorward outflow channel, which should help mix out the dry air.

Edited April 16, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

no bother

update

Storm Alert issued at 16 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Bangladesh

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Myanmar

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Bangladesh

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

India

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Myanmar

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

warning issued

Warning issued by BMD has central pressure 8 hPa lower than IMD.

Govt. of the People's Republic of Bangladesh

Bangladesh Meteorological Department

Storm Warning Center

Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO: 18 (EIGHTEEN), DATE: 17- 04-2009

THE CYCLONIC STORM “BIJLI” (WITH ECP 988 HPA) OVER NORTHWEST BAY AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW LIES OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING AREA AND WAS CENTRED AT 09 AM TODAY (THE 17 APRIL 2009) ABOUT 490 KMS SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 460 KMS SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT AND 330 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT (NEAR LAT.19.70 N AND LONG.88.20 E). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS BARISAL-CHITTAGONG COAST NEAR MEGHNA EASTURY BY EARLY NIGHT TO NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 54 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 70 KPH RISING TO 90 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH .

MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX ® SIX.

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX ® SIX.

MARITIME PORT OF MONGLA HAS BEEN ADVISED KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE ® FIVE.

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE ® FIVE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM, THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY WIND SPEED UP TO 120 KPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM.

THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY MUST REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

[Cookie]

looks disorganized at the moment

[Cookie]

new track map

[Somerset Squall]

Since last night, Bijli intensified to 50kts. However, the storm has failed to get any stronger. Although waters are warm and shear is low, Bijli has been held back by subsidence and dry air which has always been expected to be a limiting factor for Bijli's intensity. Equatorward outflow has diminished and is poor in all quadrants. As a consequence, Bijli's convective coverage has decreased significantly over the last 6 hours in particular. Bijli is a few hours from landfall, and the BMD update Cookie posted explains the effects to southeastern Bangledesh that the storm will have upon this landfall.

[Cookie]

final warning issued

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Bangladesh

probability for TS is 95% currently

Myanmar

probability for TS is 90% currently

India

probability for TS is 80% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)

probability for TS is 85% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Bijli has dissipated over the rugged terrain of southeast Bangledesh. Bijli has caused 6 deaths. Damage totals are unknown as yet.

[Cookie]

was the deaths from flooding?

[Somerset Squall]

was the deaths from flooding?

3 direct deaths and 3 indirect deaths, quote from Wiki:

The first fatality caused by Bijli occurred when a tree knocked down by high winds fell on a 9-year-old boy, killing him on impact and injuring his sister. In the Cox's Bazar District, a school teacher and two students were killed. One of the two children was trampled to death during the evacuation. The other child was killed when his home collapsed on top of him. During the evacuation, a 48-year-old man collapsed and died after suffering a heart attack. His child, who was only a few months old, also died from medical circumstances which were aggravated during the evacuation.

[Cookie]

I wish I hadn't asked