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Storm Chase Day 9 Discussion


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    The team are planning to head across the Greensburg today as it's 2 years since the town was virtually destroyed by an EF5 tornado.

    They will be seeing how the town is recovering and also watching the memorial service.

    Beyond that they are likely to stay overnight close to Woodward where they will be setup to chase from tomorrow as it's looking like being a very lively day.

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    Posted
  • Location: s.e. london
  • Location: s.e. london

    you r all up l8 2day u r still offline was it a heavy night last night :winky: hope that son of mine is behavin himself take care, have a gd day btw those lightning photos were brilliant x

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK
    Had a few techie problems so this is a bit delayed, but Paul's briefing is now online for you to view, who's the strange bloke with the funny walk?!

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

    It would appear, at first glance, that Tom is suffering some side effects from the vanilla coffee.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    An emotional day then today. i remember the destruction that Greensburgh suffered and imagine the service will be a very emotional event for the residents and all those partaking

    a sharp reminder as to the destruction mother nature can create :winky:

    info here

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2007_Tornado_Outbreak

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    Posted
  • Location: (home) Teesdale 283m asl (work) Hartlepool
  • Location: (home) Teesdale 283m asl (work) Hartlepool

    Just a quick update from Paul S

    We are actually now not going to burn 500 Miles going up to Greensburg and back down again, so are heading to Childress to put ourselves into position for the Tornado Thread For Tuesday. That way we can relax and Paul can look over the Models in readiness for Tomorrow.

    Tammy

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    thanks for the update Tammy, makes sense to not travel that distance i suppose. and hopefully being in Childress will be a good setting off point for any potential in the coming days

    Mick

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    My first post on NW :D I have been spending this season forecasting and virtual chasing and thought I could contribute on these threads.

    I see Tony has already mentioned Tuesday's potential and having had a quick look at the latest NAM output it could be a lively early evening in the Canadian Valley should there be enough of a trigger to break the cap.

    And as for Greensburg - one of the most written about, analysed and discussed events of recent years and shows what can and does happen when a populated area gets in the way of a big tube. For a storm chaser visiting the site of the devastation is a sobering reminder of the power of these storms, and their potential cost in terms of property and, more importantly, lives.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    welcome to Netweather NSR :D

    you are right in yor observations about loss of life and property; a very sobering reminder indeed.

    glad you have joined the site and look forward to your views and opinions.

    out of interest, what part of the world are you from?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    I remember that outbreak too, i followed it on the internet all night and when i heard that NWS meteorologists where issuing a Tornado Emergency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency

    i knew it was looking bad for Greensburg. I grabbed this radar image 20-25mins before it struck Greensburg and the hook echo is incredible.

    A very sombre day for people in Kansas today particularly Greensburg when memories of that evening

    come flooding back.

    Two years on and most of the people are out of temporary accommodation and a whole new 'Green' Greensburg rebuild is still ongoing. http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/st...View/sid/35631/

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    Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
    My first post on NW :D I have been spending this season forecasting and virtual chasing and thought I could contribute on these threads.

    I see Tony has already mentioned Tuesday's potential and having had a quick look at the latest NAM output it could be a lively early evening in the Canadian Valley should there be enough of a trigger to break the cap.

    And as for Greensburg - one of the most written about, analysed and discussed events of recent years and shows what can and does happen when a populated area gets in the way of a big tube. For a storm chaser visiting the site of the devastation is a sobering reminder of the power of these storms, and their potential cost in terms of property and, more importantly, lives.

    Welcome to NetWeather Neil :D

    Must get back to packing...

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
    I remember that outbreak too, i followed it on the internet all night and when i heard that NWS meteorologists where issuing a Tornado Emergency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency

    i knew it was looking bad for Greensburg. I grabbed this radar image 20-25mins before it struck Greensburg and the hook echo is incredible.

    A very sombre day for people in Kansas today particularly Greensburg when memories of that evening

    come flooding back.

    Two years on and most of the people are out of temporary accommodation and a whole new 'Green' Greensburg rebuild is still ongoing. http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/st...View/sid/35631/

    I don't think the team are going to kansas now , the twitter I read an hour or so ago said they had a change of plan and were staying back south.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Yeah, i know Aunt Sally (Tammy) said on post 7 above that they weren't gonna burn 500miles to get into position around Childress for tomorrows risk.

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    Yes we are now in Childress...Possible storms here for later...so in a good position for camera and video shots......

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Hard to make any calculated decision on prime risk zone for Tues based on the current model output. A death cap looks possible over the triple point ATM. Unless the models change then the only real option is to move east along the warm front maybe south of Wichita Falls. Dew points expected in the 70s with potential for strong instability if the cap can break. Unsure about tornadoes ATM

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    Hard to make any calculated decision on prime risk zone for Tues based on the current model output. A death cap looks possible over the triple point ATM. Unless the models change then the only real option is to move east along the warm front maybe south of Wichita Falls. Dew points expected in the 70s with potential for strong instability if the cap can break. Unsure about tornadoes ATM

    Yep

    Been looking at some Models as well Tony and it looks like it could be a VERY Late Show if at all b4 Nightfall. But if something goes with a few hours to chase then we could get Structure Heaven. Thinking at the moment the Cap will bust further South just North of Abilene or South East of Lubbock.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    NOAA's outlook for Lubbock area

    SHORT TERM...

    A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IN

    W-NW FLOW ALOFT RESULTED IN SOME SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS

    MORNING IN THE CHILDRESS AREA...BUT THIS HAS SINCE PUSHED ON INTO

    OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS EVENING WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST

    PART BUT DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE E-NE ZONES AS A

    FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ONCE AGAIN

    SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT...ALTHOUGH BY 3 PM

    THE CLEARING LINE HAD ADVANCED INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.

    OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP AS THE

    LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD

    RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY SOME AREAS

    OF FOG - ALTHOUGH KEPT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO

    UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF FOG WITH THE

    EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

    TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA

    IN THE MORNING AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSRA

    ACROSS THE NE ZONES. MEANWHILE...A W-SW PUSH TO THE SFC RIDGE AND A

    DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG

    BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. FCST SNDGS ACROSS THE AREA

    RANGE FROM A DRY...DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH

    SFC TEMPS LIKELY CLIMBING UP INTO THE MID 90S...TO A COOL...MOIST

    AIRMASS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING

    INVERSION. WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG

    LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR...THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE

    PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IF ANY SFC-BASED

    INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...BUT THIS APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT

    THIS TIME. THERE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS

    OUR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES IF BROAD TRIPLE-POINT DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED

    ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SPLNS/NORTH-CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...SUCH

    THAT IF ANY CLEARING DOES TAKE PLACE THIS AREA MAY BE PREFERRED FOR

    CI. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL

    BE DIFFICULT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING MID-LVL TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE

    KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLGT CHC CAT...WITH CHCS ACROSS THE NE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Does look a tough call to suggest a target area tomorrow, warm layer at 850mb pushing north across west-central Texas south of the warm front which looks to straddle E-W along the Red RiverValley or OK/TX border is going to put a strong cap in place over north and west-central TX. And with no focused forcing coming along - it will rely on high temps and perhaps convergence breaking the cap - which can be localised and hard to pin-point using models. The models tend to break out preciptn north and NE of the Red River and warm front but here will be less CAPE ... but any isolated storms which break the cap maybe supecellular and tornadic across Texas south of warm front with large amounts of CAPE modelled.

    Not sure whether further S or SW the dry line edging in may trigger something - as this is the only focused forcing I can see that may break the cap. WRF suggests a dryline bulge even in the vicinity of Abilene - maybe worth considering:

    post-1052-1241476979_thumb.pngpost-1052-1241477004_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hi Nick

    There is an MCS Progged to cross our region tonight and I am hoping this can throw off an Outflow Boundary as it clears through Oklahoma tomorrow Morning. Picking out a Needle in a Haystack here but it might be the focus for some Action near to the Triple Point.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    From the 00z model guidance, I think the target zone is probably around Odessa to Big Spring on either side of I-20. The cool, dry air that has been in place today is not going to shift very quickly north of that zone, but a trough and rising thickness values will allow tropical moisture to flow north and over-run the cooler, drier air which will likely become stratus-covered tomorrow morning. Dry line may not make much of a move past the Pecos River but will contribute to the instability at first. There may also be severe cells further south around Brady and Sonora.

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