Storm Chase Day 9 Discussion

[Paul]

The team are planning to head across the Greensburg today as it's 2 years since the town was virtually destroyed by an EF5 tornado.

They will be seeing how the town is recovering and also watching the memorial service.

Beyond that they are likely to stay overnight close to Woodward where they will be setup to chase from tomorrow as it's looking like being a very lively day.

[Julie Cameron]

you r all up l8 2day u r still offline was it a heavy night last night :winky: hope that son of mine is behavin himself take care, have a gd day btw those lightning photos were brilliant x

[Paul]

Had a few techie problems so this is a bit delayed, but Paul's briefing is now online for you to view, who's the strange bloke with the funny walk?!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

[AudMun]

Had a few techie problems so this is a bit delayed, but Paul's briefing is now online for you to view, who's the strange bloke with the funny walk?!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

It would appear, at first glance, that Tom is suffering some side effects from the vanilla coffee.

[Paul]

You could be right!

Btw, live stream is on for anyone wanting to follow the run up through the panhandle and into kansas (connection will be slightly patchy at times)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[MAF]

An emotional day then today. i remember the destruction that Greensburgh suffered and imagine the service will be a very emotional event for the residents and all those partaking

a sharp reminder as to the destruction mother nature can create :winky:

info here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2007_Tornado_Outbreak

[Aunt Sally]

Just a quick update from Paul S

We are actually now not going to burn 500 Miles going up to Greensburg and back down again, so are heading to Childress to put ourselves into position for the Tornado Thread For Tuesday. That way we can relax and Paul can look over the Models in readiness for Tomorrow.

Tammy

[MAF]

thanks for the update Tammy, makes sense to not travel that distance i suppose. and hopefully being in Childress will be a good setting off point for any potential in the coming days

Mick

[nsrobins]

My first post on NW I have been spending this season forecasting and virtual chasing and thought I could contribute on these threads.

I see Tony has already mentioned Tuesday's potential and having had a quick look at the latest NAM output it could be a lively early evening in the Canadian Valley should there be enough of a trigger to break the cap.

And as for Greensburg - one of the most written about, analysed and discussed events of recent years and shows what can and does happen when a populated area gets in the way of a big tube. For a storm chaser visiting the site of the devastation is a sobering reminder of the power of these storms, and their potential cost in terms of property and, more importantly, lives.

[MAF]

welcome to Netweather NSR

you are right in yor observations about loss of life and property; a very sobering reminder indeed.

glad you have joined the site and look forward to your views and opinions.

out of interest, what part of the world are you from?

[NL]

I remember that outbreak too, i followed it on the internet all night and when i heard that NWS meteorologists where issuing a Tornado Emergency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency

i knew it was looking bad for Greensburg. I grabbed this radar image 20-25mins before it struck Greensburg and the hook echo is incredible.

A very sombre day for people in Kansas today particularly Greensburg when memories of that evening

come flooding back.

Two years on and most of the people are out of temporary accommodation and a whole new 'Green' Greensburg rebuild is still ongoing. http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/st...View/sid/35631/

[Ross B]

My first post on NW I have been spending this season forecasting and virtual chasing and thought I could contribute on these threads.

I see Tony has already mentioned Tuesday's potential and having had a quick look at the latest NAM output it could be a lively early evening in the Canadian Valley should there be enough of a trigger to break the cap.

And as for Greensburg - one of the most written about, analysed and discussed events of recent years and shows what can and does happen when a populated area gets in the way of a big tube. For a storm chaser visiting the site of the devastation is a sobering reminder of the power of these storms, and their potential cost in terms of property and, more importantly, lives.

Welcome to NetWeather Neil

Must get back to packing...

[snowmadchrisuk]

I remember that outbreak too, i followed it on the internet all night and when i heard that NWS meteorologists where issuing a Tornado Emergency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency

i knew it was looking bad for Greensburg. I grabbed this radar image 20-25mins before it struck Greensburg and the hook echo is incredible.

A very sombre day for people in Kansas today particularly Greensburg when memories of that evening

come flooding back.

Two years on and most of the people are out of temporary accommodation and a whole new 'Green' Greensburg rebuild is still ongoing. http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/st...View/sid/35631/

I don't think the team are going to kansas now , the twitter I read an hour or so ago said they had a change of plan and were staying back south.

[NL]

Yeah, i know Aunt Sally (Tammy) said on post 7 above that they weren't gonna burn 500miles to get into position around Childress for tomorrows risk.

[Paul]

They've just arrived in childress looking at the stream.

[dogs32]

Yes we are now in Childress...Possible storms here for later...so in a good position for camera and video shots......

[Tony Gilbert]

Hard to make any calculated decision on prime risk zone for Tues based on the current model output. A death cap looks possible over the triple point ATM. Unless the models change then the only real option is to move east along the warm front maybe south of Wichita Falls. Dew points expected in the 70s with potential for strong instability if the cap can break. Unsure about tornadoes ATM

[Paul Sherman]

Hard to make any calculated decision on prime risk zone for Tues based on the current model output. A death cap looks possible over the triple point ATM. Unless the models change then the only real option is to move east along the warm front maybe south of Wichita Falls. Dew points expected in the 70s with potential for strong instability if the cap can break. Unsure about tornadoes ATM

Yep

Been looking at some Models as well Tony and it looks like it could be a VERY Late Show if at all b4 Nightfall. But if something goes with a few hours to chase then we could get Structure Heaven. Thinking at the moment the Cap will bust further South just North of Abilene or South East of Lubbock.

Paul S

[MAF]

NOAA's outlook for Lubbock area

SHORT TERM...

A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IN

W-NW FLOW ALOFT RESULTED IN SOME SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS

MORNING IN THE CHILDRESS AREA...BUT THIS HAS SINCE PUSHED ON INTO

OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS EVENING WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST

PART BUT DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE E-NE ZONES AS A

FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ONCE AGAIN

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT...ALTHOUGH BY 3 PM

THE CLEARING LINE HAD ADVANCED INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP AS THE

LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD

RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY SOME AREAS

OF FOG - ALTHOUGH KEPT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO

UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF FOG WITH THE

EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA

IN THE MORNING AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSRA

ACROSS THE NE ZONES. MEANWHILE...A W-SW PUSH TO THE SFC RIDGE AND A

DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG

BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. FCST SNDGS ACROSS THE AREA

RANGE FROM A DRY...DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH

SFC TEMPS LIKELY CLIMBING UP INTO THE MID 90S...TO A COOL...MOIST

AIRMASS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING

INVERSION. WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG

LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR...THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE

PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IF ANY SFC-BASED

INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...BUT THIS APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT

THIS TIME. THERE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS

OUR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES IF BROAD TRIPLE-POINT DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SPLNS/NORTH-CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...SUCH

THAT IF ANY CLEARING DOES TAKE PLACE THIS AREA MAY BE PREFERRED FOR

CI. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL

BE DIFFICULT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING MID-LVL TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE

KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLGT CHC CAT...WITH CHCS ACROSS THE NE.

[Nick F]

Does look a tough call to suggest a target area tomorrow, warm layer at 850mb pushing north across west-central Texas south of the warm front which looks to straddle E-W along the Red RiverValley or OK/TX border is going to put a strong cap in place over north and west-central TX. And with no focused forcing coming along - it will rely on high temps and perhaps convergence breaking the cap - which can be localised and hard to pin-point using models. The models tend to break out preciptn north and NE of the Red River and warm front but here will be less CAPE ... but any isolated storms which break the cap maybe supecellular and tornadic across Texas south of warm front with large amounts of CAPE modelled.

Not sure whether further S or SW the dry line edging in may trigger something - as this is the only focused forcing I can see that may break the cap. WRF suggests a dryline bulge even in the vicinity of Abilene - maybe worth considering:

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Nick

There is an MCS Progged to cross our region tonight and I am hoping this can throw off an Outflow Boundary as it clears through Oklahoma tomorrow Morning. Picking out a Needle in a Haystack here but it might be the focus for some Action near to the Triple Point.

Paul S

[Julie Cameron]

hi ian hope u all gd an havin great time lol did u do that challenge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Roger J Smith]

From the 00z model guidance, I think the target zone is probably around Odessa to Big Spring on either side of I-20. The cool, dry air that has been in place today is not going to shift very quickly north of that zone, but a trough and rising thickness values will allow tropical moisture to flow north and over-run the cooler, drier air which will likely become stratus-covered tomorrow morning. Dry line may not make much of a move past the Pecos River but will contribute to the instability at first. There may also be severe cells further south around Brady and Sonora.