Severe Weather Us July 09'

[NL]

Thought i'd start this in Extreme weather worldwide as the community threads dont count posts

and i thought perhaps thats why some people refrain from posting, me i could'nt care if i had 1 post

or a million...!!!!

Anyway back to the severe risk and again the SPC have placed a slight risk for northern/central

Kansas into Nebraska with a 5% chance of a tornado.

SPC AC 031233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND

EASTERN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...

TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS AS NERN TROUGH SLOWLY

ROTATES NEWD AND RIDGE CENTRAL U.S. FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO S/W

ENERGY MOVING EWD FROM ROCKIES. FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY HAS PUSHED

SWD TO SRN GA WWD TO SRN MS AND THEN BACK NWWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.

PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT

IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY IN ADVANCE

OF THE S/WV TROUGH OVER ROCKIES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING

NEB SEWD ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NOT BE A SEVERE CONCERN

DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TO

VICINITY KS/NEB BORDER AND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SWRN KS BEGINS

MOVING NEWD THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING OF AN ALREADY MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A MDTLY UNSTABLE

WARM SECTOR ACROSS KS. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD

OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLY CONVERGENT WARM FRONTAL

ZONE CENTRAL HI PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF

AROUND 7 C/KM WILL TEMPER SOME OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MLCAPES OF

2000 J/KG OR MORE COUPLED WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC-6KM

SHEAR OF 40-50KT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF

SUPERCELLS VICINITY AND N OF WARM FRONT. ALONG WITH LARGE

HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH

ANY SUPERCELL.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 50 PLUS KT AND VEERING TO MORE

SWLY BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE AND 850MB LOW SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN

KS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE...EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE

MCS/S OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS

WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[NL]

Pretty active up on the high plains particularly North Dakota reporting 12 tornadoes and South Dakota and Illinois

reporting 2. One tornado around Burke County ND was reported to be quite large before getting wrapped up in rain

and is alleged to have demolished an oil storage facility, 2.75" hail accompanied these storms across ND.

Another day of severe weather is expected and SPC have issued a slight risk and a 5% chance of tornadoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html