Major Hurricane Jimena

[MAF]

latest update

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW

WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY

FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE

UNTIL LANDFALL.

BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE

APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED

CATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD

STEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED

AS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE

CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED

TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA

PENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES

THAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

[kold weather]

How close was it?

Well the NHC discusssion in the latest update shows that it was probably close enough for it to be upgraded post season, as they suggest it could have been a category-5 before recon went in, which was quite probable IMO. Landfall as a major is still more then possible though much depends on how it handles the lower heat content in the next 24hrs.

[Cookie]

as expected started to weaken now

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, an eye wall replacement has occured which has greatly weakened Jimena, now a 110kt cat 3. Jimena is also moving over cooler waters which will prevent re-intensification. Jimena is bearing down on Baja California, and is likely to make landfall as a major hurricane still.

[MAF]

yep, as predicted, the cooler waters will weaken the hurricane prior to landfall. just as well i suppose. California has enough on its plate with wildfires, let alone hurricane damage.

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE

21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...

205 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...JIMENA COULD BE

NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

Edited September 1, 2009 by MAF

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena is moving north-northwestwards, paralelling the coast of Baja California. Land interaction and cooler waters are progressively weakening Jimena, and intensity is now down to 85kts, making Jimena a cat 2. Although Jimena hasn't made landfall, the hurricane is providing flooding rains and damaging winds up the entire length of Baja, and particularly the west coast. Jimena will continue to weaken due to land interaction, cooler waters and eventually, increasing shear. This will dissipate Jimena in about 48hrs time.

[Cookie]

I think it has made landfall hasnt it?

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed it did Cookie, and in fact Jimena has now emerged into the warm waters of the Gulf of California. However, Jimena is not long for this world as strong shear and continued excessive land interaction tear the storm apart. Jimena's intensity has been reduced to 35kts and Jimena will be a remnant low very soon.

[Cookie]

A shadow of its former self

[Somerset Squall]

Jimena has finally become a remnant low tonight, but not without a fight. Jimena stalled over the warm waters of the Gulf of California and shear temporarily eased which allowed Jimena to remain a tropical cyclone for longer than expected. However, as the Gulf of California is very narrow, Jimena was still interacting with land to a degree and as shear has now increased again, Jimena finally gave in. The remnant low is expected to drift back towards the southwest and dissipate over the terrain of Baja California.

Jimena has caused a lot of flooding and damage over Baja. Thankfully, death toll is minimal with the death toll only being 1. Could have been so much worse.

Edited September 4, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

yup you're right could have been a lot worse, if you don't include the west pacific but take the east on its own, I think a lot places have got of very lucky so far this season. with my systems missing land or weakening enough before landfall.

lets hope the luck lasts.