Northern Hemisphere 850Hpa Temperature

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Atmospheric pressure of 850 hPa is - very roughly - a height of 1.5 kilometers or 1 mile.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Siberia is unprecedentedly cold this year and one wonders whether that now its set in early November it will become "bonus cold" (not an official meteorological concept) that will be hard to shift while the rest of the NH cools as normal.

But also has North America been unprecedentedly cool, as this NOAA anomaly chart for October shows. You can see on the images above that the US landmass was particularly warm 2005/2006.

There is more cold air about in the Arctic this winter. So, why would that be? And why hasn't the Arctic ice grown to reflect this change in climate?

View other years clicking N Hemisphere, Archive HERE.

Edited November 8, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Thundery wintry showers]

Look closely at the two maps and you'll find that although the concentrated Arctic cold pooling in 2009 is certainly impressive, there are patterns of warm anomalies as well as cold ones. The Arctic on our side of the pole is much warmer than it was in the previous four Novembers, and on the other side of the globe, around south-east Asia it is much warmer than in the last four Novembers.

Overall the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature is similar to the past four years- and regarding the assessment of overall Northern Hemisphere warming (or lack of it), that's what counts.

Current NH anomalies here, relative to 1985-1998 averages:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.html

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The Arctic on our side of the pole is much warmer than it was in the previous four Novembers, and on the other side of the globe, around south-east Asia it is much warmer than in the last four Novembers.

I disagree about "our side of the pole" - is a flat trend in the area south of Greenland while in Europe for the first time in 5 years France is a green colour.

The North Pacific is warmer. But you can't pool cold air over the oceans as it's cold lost to the warm sea, so it's not quite the same implications for the winter climate as when it is "banked" in Siberia.

Current NH anomalies here, relative to 1985-1998 averages:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.html

They are surface temperature anomalies and relates to my question why hasn't the Arctic ice grown to reflect this change in the climate?

[Gray-Wolf]

They are surface temperature anomalies and relates to my question why hasn't the Arctic ice grown to reflect this change in the climate?

'Cause thats the air and ice grows in water?

The exposed 'Dark water' takes time to shed it's heat back into the atmosphere before ice can form and I would guess that this is what delays ice formation and not the temps above (have we not been here before?).

Edited November 9, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

i have been watching the 850s as well.. i would even suggst that this year we have some more intense cold pools in comparioson to all years on the archive link which goes back to 1998.. (except perhaps 99, 00). again i would suggest the reason the slow uptake of ice has been down to the very cold air being over siberia and not the basin.

suggestion for the slow uptake of ice in barents and kara this year could be due to the greater than normal melt this summer/autumn, added to the water from the gulf stream not having as much ice to help cool the waters i would have thought it will take a little longer for the ice to grow back in this area...

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm afraid most of our side of the pole is warmer than the last few Novembers (except perhaps 2005). Take Svalbard for example. It is currently substantially warmer than in any year bar 2005 which was marginally warmer. Or try north Scandinavia, or the area to the east of Svalbard, or Iceland. Southern Greenland, with similar temperatures to the last few years, is a one-off

The area south of Greenland is a blatant cherry-pick of a one-off exception. Similarly, while Europe is no warmer than recent Novembers it's a stretch to say that it's significantly colder. Regarding these supposed cold anomalies, how come the link I posted shows warm anomalies elsewhere outweighing the cold ones over central Asia?

I sense an element of cold confirmation bias with the aim of undermining AGW.

[oldsnowywizard]

I'm afraid most of our side of the pole is warmer than the last few Novembers (except perhaps 2005). Take Svalbard for example. It is currently substantially warmer than in any year bar 2005 which was marginally warmer. Or try north Scandinavia, or the area to the east of Svalbard, or Iceland. Southern Greenland, with similar temperatures to the last few years, is a one-off

The area south of Greenland is a blatant cherry-pick of a one-off exception. Similarly, while Europe is no warmer than recent Novembers it's a stretch to say that it's significantly colder. Regarding these supposed cold anomalies, how come the link I posted shows warm anomalies elsewhere outweighing the cold ones over central Asia?

I sense an element of cold confirmation bias with the aim of undermining AGW.

Sorry TWS how i think your missing the point. FACT - Siberia has a substantially larger and colder area of 850 temps than compared to previous 5 maybe + years. the link you provided is something i have been looking at as well. the point i would like to make is that that chart shows the anomolies in comparision to the 1985 to 1996 average. over the last few years there has always been positive temp anomolies over most of Siberia.. as you can see there is a large area showing a cold anomoly but also a larger neutral, which indicates that temps are equal to what they were on average back then.. i think we know now that average equals colder than normal for recent years? (the 7 day average tends to show a clearer picture of course than a one day snap shot)

this is the 7 day average..

i have tried and struggled to find any archived images on this site as i think this would probably show a wider area of positive anomolies in this area.

by the way i cant see on any of the above maps any large areas of warm anomolies over central Asia? unless you mean Far Eastern Europe which is getting warmer weather being pulled up by the absolutely gigantic high pressure over most of Asia...

the area around svalbard and north barnets i belive might be influcend slightly by the lack of ice which is normally present..?..

i certainly remember the like of stratos ferric et al saying that there has been a lack of cold to tap into, i think AF and myself are merely suggesting that this might not be the case this year based on *current observations.

Edited November 9, 2009 by oldsnowywizard

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think you're missing the point- I am not stating that Asia isn't anomalously cold at the moment, but rather that the cold anomalies there are more than offset by the warm anomalies elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

AFT seems to be trying to imply that the Arctic, or even Northern Hemisphere as a whole, has cooled, and I am showing that this is not so. There will always be areas of positive and negative anomalies either side of the average unless that average rises by upwards of 5C, which it hasn't. This year the pattern of positive and negative anomalies is different to those of most recent Novembers.

[Nick B]

Don't know about 850s (sorry if off topic) but at 38,000ft over Siberia last night it was -95 deg F (= -70 deg C and a bit) ... according to the aeroplane I was on. Pretty cold...

Edited November 9, 2009 by Nick B

[Gray-Wolf]

When looking at the 7 day anom plot you've posted OSW the Asian 'cold' seems a little teeny (and tepid?) though esp. when you look to the north and see the whole Arctic bathed in orange/green with much of Central U.S. and Asia also on the 'green' side of things.

Looking at the globe on that plot you'd probably be in the ball park with 10% or less being anom cold whereas 40% is anom warm?

[oldsnowywizard]

yep it certainly does GW, and this helps my two points nicely...

1. the colder air has been pushed over siberia not the basin , (these maps from memory have always shown strong positive anomolies over the arctic though.. ( you almost wonder that perhaps the readings from 85-96 werent accurate either that or the arctic was for sure 15 -20 degrees colder which doesnt seem realistic)

2. Neutral to me is cold for this day and age? if we could find some archived charts from this site and compare im sure it would show warm anomolies over siberia etc rather than neutral values...

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think you're missing the point- I am not stating that Asia isn't anomalously cold at the moment, but rather that the cold anomalies there are more than offset by the warm anomalies elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

Your claims are not easily observable in the images I've shown from recent years and the ones in the archive. In fact, your claims appear to be easily refutable simply because the North Pacific presents a smaller surface area than Siberia.

The dimensions of the cold pool

"Kamachatka" coast to the left edge of Siberia a distance of 4000km. If we go down 1500km (half is about 2000km, other half 1000km) that is a total area (at the surface, 1 mile up in the atmosphere will be a higher area) of 6000 km.

The dimensions of the warm pool

From the North island of Japan to the first -5 mark on the Alaskan archipelago is 3500km. In previous years the 850hPA temperature does not change much beyond 500 km South of a line drawn between these two places. This leaves an area of 1750km.

That's an excess cold pool of over 4000 square km... before calculating the volume..

AFT seems to be trying to imply that the Arctic, or even Northern Hemisphere as a whole, has cooled, and I am showing that this is not so.

Your only map showed surface temperatures, which reflect ice totals at sea level. So it appears to me you've tried to claim the temperature at 2 meters reflects the temperature 1 mile up in the atmosphere. Not good enough!

BTW when you say "more than offset" - what kind of claim are you making, are you saying the 850hPA temps were less "more than offset" compared to last year and the year before and the one before that? That is not easily observable in my images or the archive IMO.

Edited November 9, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower