Netweather Winter Forecast

[Fozfoster]

What time today for the winter forecast?

Just thinking the same.

[sunny scunny]

What time today for the winter forecast?

23:59

[stewfox]

The competition will be judged by the team, and is purely for a bit of fun so don't feel like you need to be an expert to have a go!

Good luck

Its interesting that my predictions are based on a similar set of indictors as used on Net Weather

Anyway since I was a 5yr old child during a period of 'real winters' when we talked of ice ages and 3 day weeks I have always looked at the same following factors

The Temperature of the polar stratosphere, can I see a steady warming trend which would make a colder than average winter more likely;

Aged 9 I use to try and jump from my parents roof top with a thermometer held up to catch a reading and end up in hospital with broken ankles. When I reached 40 I was told you couldn't reach the stratosphere by jumping so will have to trust stuff on the net.

Any Signs of the next westerly wind burst in the Pacific centred 180 degrees West does it look like shifting???. As kid I would go out there and use a few magnets.

Is there a growing pool of colder than normal surface Atlantic waters off Newfoundland which would promote a colder than average winter. I found if you go for a swim there is was a good way of measuring it, if you don't believe certain data in e-mails etc.

I'll look at the Extent of snow cover over Asia as a means of gauging of the likely extent of cold air further into the winter; Usually a walk across Asia on foot is fair way of doing this. Walk quickly otherwise winters over before you finish.

It's also important to look at the value of globally averaged angular momentum to determine whether El Nino is impacting the global weather pattern. As a kid I never got my head around this EL Nino chap but I know he is important so I always send a postcard to see what he is up to (If it's a mild winter its usually a she).

This winter its clear there is going to be a number of battles between cold/warm incursions

The UK looks like being in the middle of the 'battle zone' although I would suggest the further north you are the more likely you are to see some of these colder incursions. If you moved the UK 800 miles to the East you could knock of 7c of all the figures mentioned.

However for this winter will get a lot of 3c in Newcastle 1c in Aberdeen and 9c in London or 4c London 7c in Aberdeen etc as the cold brushes around and into the UK over the 3 months.

There is unlikely to be a prolonged mild spell lasting several weeks . indicators such as Asia snow cover suggest we wont be surrounded by mild.

http://www.natice.no...-1mo-loop.htmle

The current synoptic activity are showing 'patterns' that although there in F1 land clearly indicate a very mobile set of weather that will run I believe for the whole winter. The whingers thread and model threads that will keep the mods on their toes. With spectacular T144 to F1 synoptics because the overall pattern is so mobile and lots of disappointment but there will be some pleasant surprises.

No one can leave the models for a week and come back 'when things change', the weather will remain mobile throughout winter.

So don't expect a month of mild or cold or high pressure sitting on us for 4 weeks (I don't see any repeat of the September/October synoptic pattern)

December

----------------

A real mixed bag

A average month by way of CET but a lot of variability. Frequent snow showers over the northern hills and for the Scottish mountains but for low lying districts with max temps ranging from 3-8c its unlikely any will fall as snow. Day time temps might be slightly below average but night times above.

One common theme will be variability and the wind I don't see many calm clear nights with subsequent really low temps.

CET 0.2c above average Rain fall above normal Sun shine below normal

January

---------

The coldest period of the winter falls in the first week with a high establish and a raw easterly feed.

Snow showers and max 1 or 2c are recorded down south and 0 -1 c in the North. Night time temperatures are widely below -6c to -9c

Then a very mild interlude followed by a period of average

CET 0.3c below average rain fall just above normal Sun shine normal

February

-----------

A mixed bag but a very snowy 2^nd week with heavy snow falls followed in the 3^rd week by a mild period.

February will produce the month with the most air frosts

CET 0.2c below average Rain fall below normal sunshine normal (after a very dull start first 2 weeks)

In summary there will be enough snow to keep your average punter just about happy but not enough for another year of forum debate over 2009/10 was it or wasn’t it a ‘even larger teapot’.

[Fozfoster]

23:59

[kippure]

23:59

Lmao

[Stuart]

I say when it reday

[Paul]

Right folks, we're getting close - am locking this thread now in readiness, so that's it closed for entries for the competition - thanks to all who had a go!

Will open up a new thread as soon as the forecast is online for discussion and questions.

Paul

[Paul]

Hi all, just wanted to bump this, sorry for not revealing the winner of the subscription for the competition yet. We'll be doing this over the weekend