General Model Output Discussion

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http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Thanks!

Is it possible to see the actual AO value when it's off the scale!?

[swfc]

The 140 chart is so close to a massive push from the north east.

[Mark Bayley]

Thanks!

Is it possible to see the actual AO value when it's off the scale!?

I suppose it is, after all the stratospheric warming event last year went off the scale

Not a bad GFS so far, cold air desperately trying to hang on in the East!

[Stoxs]

GFS 18Z 108h is showing SNOW for parts of S/SE

Nice to see, more like Snizzle than snow i would guess. i love that word

be nice on the big day if it happens

[yamkin]

Nice to see, more like Snizzle than snow i would guess. i love that word

be nice on the big day if it happens

let's see a few more model runs. I have this feeling that we may have some snow on Xmas day

[TEITS]

The 140 chart is so close to a massive push from the north east.

The 18Z is a good example of how uncertain the outlook is. Having said this the outlook is uncertain for the rest of the week and even the GFS/UKMO disagree at +24!

Im just going with the flow at the moment and taking each day as it comes.

[swfc]

if i honest thats one of the strangest runs ive seen.????.So complicated its mind blowing.As teits said best just see how it pans out.24 hrs seems way in fi.

[Stoxs]

Looking very border line for the PPN heading up from the south at +75 wednesday evening, until it passes the M4 then turning to snow .

Could produce a few cm`s with decent amounts of PPN in it. one to watch i think.

[TEITS]

The only disappointing output is the ECM ensembles. I have been closely following these and tonight the mean has increased by around 3C and there is far fewer cold runs compared to recent days. Still I suppose ensembles can easily change especially in F.I.

[Mark.C]

The only disappointing output is the ECM ensembles. I have been closely following these and tonight the mean has increased by around 3C and there is far fewer cold runs compared to recent days. Still I suppose ensembles can easily change especially in F.I.

so do you think there is a trend towards warmer conditions as we head towards new year? GFS is obviously unsure, i cant make head nor tail of this lot.

[Duane S.]

I have to say it is looking more and more like this cold spell may not be going out with the bang we had all wished for, certainly for the south anyway.

The signs for a mild(er) couple of weeks have been there for a while now and recent output has done nothing to diminish that unfortunately. No complaints from me though (despite not seeing, and not likely to see, one flake of snow so far), a truly incredible start to the winter and the potential for a second cold blast in midwinter is still there.

[snowlover2009]

interesting, if gfs came off tonight for after xmas it would still be below average even with a pattern change, mildest temps would be no more than the average, then its back to colder conditions then mild southerlies! Anyway i don't care about fi its crap. cold now, then cooler, then average, then cold, then unseasonable mild from gfs. seriously come on.

[igloo]

interesting, if gfs came off tonight for after xmas it would still be below average even with a pattern change, mildest temps would be no more than the average, then its back to colder conditions then mild southerlies! Anyway i don't care about fi its crap. cold now, then cooler, then average, then cold, then unseasonable mild from gfs. seriously come on.

i would not pay any attention to any model after +168 every model looks completely different after this.if someone can tell me why the gfs model has to go to +368 because its so trash it makes no sense also the euros +240 rubbish.

[Iceberg]

The models are all over the place again (144Z is probably the clearest example GFS has a 960 low, ECM is having none of it !).

The models are different tbh though even 48 hrs down the line.

GFS ensembles are very encouraging but are not really worth anything given the shorter term massive differences.

The above is probably one of the reasons why there is so few people on this thread.

Discussing anything beyond 72 hrs is pretty pointless !

[nick sussex]

The models are all over the place again (144Z is probably the clearest example GFS has a 960 low, ECM is having none of it !).

The models are different tbh though even 48 hrs down the line.

GFS ensembles are very encouraging but are not really worth anything given the shorter term massive differences.

The above is probably one of the reasons why there is so few people on this thread.

Discussing anything beyond 72 hrs is pretty pointless !

Totally agree with you, it's absolute chaos in the models with the ecm performing a huge turnaround at T-168hrs, at this point it goes winter crazy! unbelievable change from yesterday! even at T-72hrs huge differences with the ukmo deepening that sw low and the rest not wanting to know. It certainly says something when forecasters across the media won't even try and forecast Xmas Day which is only 72hrs away.

Edited December 21, 2009 by nick sussex

[swfc]

Vast gulf between gfs and ecm this morning.As iceberg said all over the place today ahgain and not really any thing nailed down.Ecm is not a bad run tho to be fair.

[West is Best]

Yes ECM is tremendous. Must admit I was on the verge of throwing in the towel until I saw that, which caused me to look at the 0z GEGS ensembles. They are very interesting. A lot of colder members now appearing and the operational in far FI is a mild outlier, and very much on the mild side throughout. So still the models struggle. Not over yet ...

[Tuxedo]

i cant believe how quiet it is on here. Its one of the most exciting weather and prospects for years and the place is desserted!!

Looking at the 120 ukmoFAX i dont like the look of the height rises over europe. It doesnt look like a battleground scenario which was what I was expecting when the mild air tries to push in

[Lincs Observation]

morning all

well what can i say, the ever changing hourly difference is soooo confusing, alas trying to find a trend as a less experienced model watcher is tough but when the more experienced forecasters struggle then the situation becomes unpresidented.

im still sticking with the view that the cold is not done yet, and wont be for a while mainly because my opinion holds as much credence as any other view on the outputs at this time.

but i have a vision of dishreveled and tired forecasters at the metoffice working their cotton socks off not to make a christmas fool of themselves when they finally go with the xmas day forecast.

LO

[Terminal Moraine]

Christmas day certainly seems to be the tipping point. Beyond Friday the GFS operational is one of the mildest members, almost an outlier towards the very end of the run, but the control is one of the coldest.

The Met' Office must be expecting slightly warmer air to come into the mix towards christmas as the local mountain forecast talks of rain or sleet on low ground and snow above 300m.

[snowingman]

oh dear

its all looking very mild mild mild - as far as the eye can see!!!

so after this little cold interlude - its back to t shirts -

disappointing really considering all the end of year hype!!

ah well

AT least the DAYS are GETTING longer (or daylight hours!)

[cyclonic happiness]

oh dear

its all looking very mild mild mild - as far as the eye can see!!!

so after this little cold interlude - its back to t shirts -

disappointing really considering all the end of year hype!!

ah well

AT least the DAYS are GETTING longer (or daylight hours!)

It actually not looking like anything in particular, the models cannot be trusted even 2 days out, so I wouldn't worry about it....live for the day my child!

[TEITS]

Yes ECM is tremendous. Must admit I was on the verge of throwing in the towel until I saw that, which caused me to look at the 0z GEGS ensembles. They are very interesting. A lot of colder members now appearing and the operational in far FI is a mild outlier,

Indeed Richard the ensembles are interesting especially around 28th/29th Dec.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091221/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Back to tonight and the other models are agreeing with the UKMO and suggesting further snowfall for W parts of E Anglia/ E Midlands. However again the radar will be the best forecasting tool for this one.

[nick sussex]

oh dear

its all looking very mild mild mild - as far as the eye can see!!!

so after this little cold interlude - its back to t shirts -

disappointing really considering all the end of year hype!!

ah well

AT least the DAYS are GETTING longer (or daylight hours!)

What models have you been looking at! there is a lot of uncertainty and a good chance that any milder blip even if it happens will be very short lived! i think your post is probably born out of some frustration at perhaps not getting the snow you had hoped for during the current cold spell as IMO theres no other reason for a post which I'm afraid is not representative of the general model guidance. There is a thread for members wishing to have a good moan so perhaps you'd like to blow off a bit of steam over there!

[Frosty.]

oh dear

its all looking very mild mild mild - as far as the eye can see!!!

Not really, the gfs 00z would eventually lift temps to near average but the next five or six days will be on the cold side although probably more marginal for snow events. The ecm would bring colder air southwards at the end of the week but the gfs is not interested, the ukmo 00z keeps it cold out to T+144 so anything less cold won't occur until the weekend at the earliest.