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grab my graupel

By grab my graupel
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Shiny_Bottom_1 Explorer

Shiny_Bottom_1

Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
Posted

Well, i'm very confused.

I last looked at the models yesterday morning at about 7am.

All signs looked ok to good for next week, and now the GEFS seems to have kicked the idea of snow potential well away from places like here until later this month/early Jan - And charts i'm seeing are now for the same period.

Can anyone explain if this pattern of a downgrade has been on other previous runs today/yesterday, or if there is still a good potential early next week still?

I've noticed both the METO have weather warnings still out, and Sky or BBC last night were apparantly predicting snow for next week. GEFS 18z ensembles for 850 hpa's do not support this.

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Cal Apprentice

Cal

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Scunny. 52m (170ft) A.S.L.
  • Location: Sunny Scunny. 52m (170ft) A.S.L.
Posted

Does this look further north than the updated faxes? This is the NAE Model.

post-5042-12619564252813_thumb.gif

post-5042-12619565006213_thumb.gif

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure what use the GFS ensembles are atm tbh. They are all probably responding with solutions to the same set of data, but if the data is flawed (I don't mean as in missing xmas data or something) then the whole set are rather questionable.

It might not be deemed prudent but tbh I never even look at the GFS ensembles at any other time let alone at the moment - they chop and change within at least 2 of the 4 heinz 57 varieties that the model puts out each day.

The GFS does have its day, don't get me wrong - but surely tonights output especially is just a reprimand for some of us ramping too much about the ECM 12z!?blum.gif . Night allbiggrin.gif

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rich1 Newbie

rich1

Posted
  • Location: nr Guildford, surrey
  • Location: nr Guildford, surrey
Posted (edited)

apparently the 18z ukmo run has the low much further NORTH.

nonono.gifdiablo.gif

If you watch the n24 forecast it shows the band moving north and coming back south again...this is the first part. No big deal

I think the faxes are the ones people should look at for now and the 00z should firm this up though it looks like a nowcast situation for the mid part of the week

18z ensembles better than I expected at this point too

Edited by rich1
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

well in a way what ever happens for early this week i will be happy as such. if the low is furthe rnorth which i very much doubt then it would bring much more snow potential here although if gfs came off for later then it would be a disaster just like the model is anyway. but ecm, ukmo, fax, gem, gme and jmd and nogaps have the low to the south. all 7 remaining models coming in line for just one other model gfs,which has the least verfication to me, seems very unlikely

This was the point i have been making for several days, its a risk/reward thing, the further south the low tracks initially the better the chance to see an extended cold spell with loads of snow chances, do you swap one heavy snowfall with then a much more difficult road to get to the ecm dream synoptics.

Some people in the north may get to see some snow from the initial low if the gfs 18hrs run verifies but the road to a locked in cold pattern is then full of more hurdles.

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

no no no...that stuff you see on the radar is far too progressive....it's really still out in the mid atlantic silly! :D:p

I am not stupid :) I have been at this game along time . I am just surprised the fronts associated weather fronts are showing up on radar already . Obviously the main low is well behind that .

And to the person who said I am to far North , Every single precipitation chart I have seen on this evenings runs takes the front into the Midlands. Just because the low stalls North of London doesn't mean the precipitation does.

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snowlover2009 Apprentice

snowlover2009

Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
Posted

No apprently they have an 18z model,or so ive been led to believe.Is that correct anyone?

what?blink.gif who told you this, if they did they would show it? btw this is gonna sound really odd but is that how you spell 'show'. i am having one of those brain freeze moments where you struggle to spell the simplest workdswacko.gif

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

I am not stupid :p I have been at this game along time . I am just surprised the fronts associated weather fronts are showing up on radar already . Obviously the main low is well behind that .

And to the person who said I am to far North , Every single precipitation chart I have seen on this evenings runs takes the front into the Midlands. Just because the low stalls North of London doesn't mean the precipitation does.

It certainly seems earlier than expected. This has happened several times during the cold spell just gone as well, fronts arriving far earlier than was predicted by most models.

Edited by nick2702
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

please could someone confirm if there is a ukmo 18z. this is really confusing me, i have never heard or seen one?

No , Unless you count the FAX charts .

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Cal Apprentice

Cal

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Scunny. 52m (170ft) A.S.L.
  • Location: Sunny Scunny. 52m (170ft) A.S.L.
Posted

18HR Ensembles, it's for Lincs but the picture is similar for other areas.

post-5042-12619568904513_thumb.png

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Tom Montalbano Maestro

Tom Montalbano

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted

London GFS 18Z ensembles.

MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

Che? Take your pick! :p

Regards,

Tom.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

please could someone confirm if there is a ukmo 18z. this is really confusing me, i have never heard or seen one?

Yes there is a UKMO 18Z & 06Z but this only runs to +48 or thats all we see anyway.

The mistake some are making with the 18Z UKMO is they are comparing the +48 18z to the 12Z +48. However obviously +48 now makes this Tues 18.00 whereas the 12Z is 6hrs behind. This gives the illusion that the LP is further N.

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted (edited)

No , Unless you count the FAX charts .

Incorrect im afraid my friend

There is a (i believe higher resolution) short term version of the UKMO model run known as the NAE model

You can view it up to 48 hours out here:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

This outputs 4 runs a day

Kind Regards

SK

Edited by snowking
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casparjack Rookie

casparjack

Posted
  • Location: Nuneham Courtenay, Oxfordshire - 275 ft AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Absolutely anything extreme or unusual
  • Location: Nuneham Courtenay, Oxfordshire - 275 ft AMSL
Posted

Look at met office fax chart the front stalled over m4 corridor.

...yeah, but look where the 528 is, Scotland on the earlier runs.

We are not guaranteed snow to start with if that verifies.

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

It certainly seems earlier than expected. This has happened several times during the cold spell just gone as well, fronts arriving far earlier than was predicted by most models.

I agree with that , Last Wednesday's rain/snow event turned up on Tuesday and was gone by Midnight.

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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted

please could someone confirm if there is a ukmo 18z. this is really confusing me, i have never heard or seen one?

Yes, there is a UKMO 06z & 18z. I used to believe it only rsn out to t48 Nck Sussex has shown it on here ocasionally, however it may go out to t72.

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swilliam Enthusiast

swilliam

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted (edited)

Does this look further north than the updated faxes? This is the NAE Model.

post-5042-12619564252813_thumb.gif

post-5042-12619565006213_thumb.gif

Yes, from the kink in the isobars the NAE model has the front running from the Severn Estuary to the middle of East Anglia, on the fax it is in the English channel but the fax chart is 6 hours earlier so probably consistent.

Edited by swilliam
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