North West Cold Spell 10

[Snow free zone]

Radar says i'm currently having a snow shower real life says i'm not

[wysiwyg]

Radar says i'm currently having a snow shower real life says i'm not

The radar is prone to showing false echos known as "anaprop" (or anomolous propogation in full) this is usually very light precip that causes radar echos but is being swept along in the breeze and never hits the ground - I had that virtually all day yesterday.

Also the positioning of the echo data relative to the map can sometimes be a little suspect.

[snowdrifter]

Radar says i'm currently having a snow shower real life says i'm not

Hi SFZ - had the same myself about 20 mins ago - nothing doing. Could be anaprop (anomolous propogation). It's when you get radar echoes from high humidity or ppn that isn't actually reaching the ground. I'm sure I'll be corrected if I'm wrong!

[chris78]

Radar says i'm currently having a snow shower real life says i'm not

we got a drop in the town centre few mins ago

[snowdrifter]

The radar is prone to showing false echos known as "anaprop" (or anomolous propogation in full) this is usually very light precip that causes radar echos but is being swept along in the breeze and never hits the ground - I had that virtually all day yesterday.

Also the positioning of the echo data relative to the map can sometimes be a little suspect.

You beat me to it wysiwyg!

[Weather-history]

I saw virga falling from a cloud to the west just after sunset.

The FAX chart for Saturday has a trough right through our region.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVI89.TIF

Edited December 31, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Solar Cycles]

I saw virga falling from a cloud to the west just after sunset.

The FAX chart for Saturday has a trough right through our region.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVI89.TIF

I had to do a double take on that Mr Data, at first glance I thought it said viagra!

[HotCuppa]

I saw virga falling from a cloud to the west just after sunset.

The FAX chart for Saturday has a trough right through our region.

http://weather.noaa..../fax/PPVI89.TIF

Let's hope that materializes

[sconetone]

Had a very light snow shower about 15 mins ago

[chris78]

another question to expose my ingnorance ...the streamers were now seeing in the north sea ...are the caused by the relative warmth of the sea ...and are they therefore less likely to continue at night?

I ask because someone earlier suggested clod cover was the reason for the gap in the streamers

[Cheshire Gap]

another question to expose my ingnorance ...the streamers were now seeing in the north sea ...are the caused by the relative warmth of the sea ...and are they therefore less likely to continue at night?

I ask because someone earlier suggested clod cover was the reason for the gap in the streamers

Yes thats the cause buddy, They could well carry on through the night, as was seen in the irish sea a couple of weeks ago during the cold spell before x-mas...north of manchester did very well from those during the night from what I remember

C.G

[wysiwyg]

another question to expose my ingnorance ...the streamers were now seeing in the north sea ...are the caused by the relative warmth of the sea ...and are they therefore less likely to continue at night?

I ask because someone earlier suggested clod cover was the reason for the gap in the streamers

Yes that's pretty much spot on. It's more to do with the surface warm generated by the sun during daylight hours in clear conditions so any cloud cover will affect the rate that water evaporates from the sea's surface. The convective effect will die out with the sunset but any moisture already there will continue to move west.

EDIT: Hehe just re-read that - you are spot in with your analysis is what I meant! Not in showing your ignorance lol - IMO it's not ignorance to ask questions. That's the whole point of learning!

Edited December 31, 2009 by wysiwyg

[martinj2]

No met office warnings for tonight/tomorrow for our region

[Weather-history]

Manchester airport is going for light snow showers later

long-TAF: EGCC 311701Z 3118/0124 35010KT 9999 FEW025 PROB30 0104/0111 5000 BR BECMG 0106/0109 27005KT PROB30 0115/0121 4000 -SHSN BKN005

Probability 30%

from 01 at 15 UTC to 01 at 21 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 500 ft

light snow showers

[dodge]

Nothing snowy yet, but I do notice some of those showers getting well inland from the North East, although they are quite isolated at present. Interesting times ahead. Feels colder now the suns gone down, and the (blue) moon is out.

[chris78]

Yes that's pretty much spot on. It's more to do with the surface warm generated by the sun during daylight hours in clear conditions so any cloud cover will affect the rate that water evaporates from the sea's surface. The convective effect will die out with the sunset but any moisture already there will continue to move west.

EDIT: Hehe just re-read that - you are spot in with your analysis is what I meant! Not in showing your ignorance lol - IMO it's not ignorance to ask questions. That's the whole point of learning!

Thanks and to Cheshire Gap...I dont know if all threads are the same but I've had any question answerded here usually in multiples, which im grateful for. Im a self employed gardener so i rekon knowing a bit a about the weather will be useful.

ps if I can reciprocate..any plant related qestions pm (particularly worries about loosing plants in the forthcoming cold or not so cold)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Manchester airport is going for light snow showers later

long-TAF: EGCC 311701Z 3118/0124 35010KT 9999 FEW025 PROB30 0104/0111 5000 BR BECMG 0106/0109 27005KT PROB30 0115/0121 4000 -SHSN BKN005

Probability 30%

from 01 at 15 UTC to 01 at 21 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 500 ft

light snow showers

Thts nice to see Kevin.Prospect of a dusting overnight for more eastern parts of the region.Hopefully looking

at the FAX cgart you posted,something a little more organized on saturday.

I feel pretty confident the east of this region will see a dusting over the next few days.

All that said we could end up with nothing,i guess it depends on the durability of the showers or troughs as they have to hurdle the pennines and i thinks it more difficult from the NE than the E.

[HotCuppa]

Thts nice to see Kevin.Prospect of a dusting overnight for more eastern parts of the region.Hopefully looking

at the FAX cgart you posted,something a little more organized on saturday.

I feel pretty confident the east of this region will see a dusting over the next few days.

All that said we could end up with nothing,i guess it depends on the durability of the showers or troughs as they have to hurdle the pennines and i thinks it more difficult from the NE than the E.

I think that was always going to be more the case that more eastern areas of the region would catch the rogue showers as they came across the pennines.

I think the further west you are, the chances of snow drop off, I could be wrong but I think it's just going to be a case of blind luck for the south of the region. We might get some convective snow from the Irish sea, but with temps not exactly all that cold to begin with, I feel anything coming in will eventually cause it to be borderline sleet / rain even with the NE. 30% for manchester doesn't suggest to me these showers are going to progress that much into the pennines. More a case of as you where on the East coast again, with possibly some rogue showers making it across the pennines. It would be nice for us in the south to get some snow, but at this stage its marginal whether we will.

Just like to add, once again the temps are back on the rise.

Temp dropped to 0.6C now its back upto 1.1C, Dewpoint is a tiny little bit higher at -1.3C. For a short while we had a true northerly that did reduce the temps back, but since it's now shifted again to the NE temps have again risen.

Edited December 31, 2009 by HotCuppa

[wysiwyg]

I think that's a pretty good summary HotCuppa. However, I do think we will be colder by Saturday when the trough being modelled arrives here. I think the temperature variations you are seeing are still being caused by the remanants of the last couple of days and also your location relatively close to water that may also be having an effect. I am still in full agreement with you though. The further south and west you go in the region, the more marginal it becomes. The snow before Christmas was relatively localised and I see nothing different in this set-up. Just patience and keep our expectations under control so that we enjoy any bonus snow.

[AderynCoch]

Aargh! The dreaded "m" word is back.

Bugger.

[meerkat63]

Very, very light snow - only the odd flake or two but at least it's something

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've just come back from Kirkby Stephen, and the views were absolutely magical...full moon with snow covered hilly landscape....stunning. I could see a very heavy looking shower over the Brough direction, and sure enough, it's now hit Great Asby, with heavy snow and -2.2C. Gorgeous!

I had to go via a friend's farm which is about 300ft above the village, and there's been no thaw whatsoever up there, with about 10" of powder snow covering everything.

[Liam J]

looking at the radar looks like some showers will penetrate further west as there is some enrgy out the east, temp -2.5c here DP -3.5c feeling very cold and frosty outside

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Another snow shower falling now, with the temp at -2.8C and dew point of -3.8C.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Very, very light snow - only the odd flake or two but at least it's something

Happy New Year to you, and nearly all of the rest of you in the North West