Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[J10]

Ian Fergusson shows the latest hi res NAE snow charts on this post, most snow inland perhaps reverting back to rain later.

[Wosser]

Could do with the roads thawing out a bit our hill is a sheet of ice and we need coal by the end of the week ,the council used to leave piles of grit but they must be cutting back its -2c at the mo so no chance of a thaw yet.

Edited January 3, 2010 by wizzy

[keithlucky]

Ian Fergusson shows the latest hi res NAE snow charts on this post, most snow inland perhaps reverting back to rain later.

I do find it hard to swallow that the front will revert back to rain,with air temp sea temp colder,and with colder air intrenched cant see how it could turn back to rain.

[Bobby]

So I respectfully disagree with your call for a non event.

I hope you are right but I'm not confident.

ECM FI

Battleground snow... now we're talking.

The people in the In Depth thread said there's a good chance of snow from these in Mid Jan...

[J10]

I do find it hard to swallow that the front will revert back to rain,with air temp sea temp colder,and with colder air intrenched cant see how it could turn back to rain.

My sentiments, the wind direction is more of a NNW, so there wouldn't be that much modification off the sea. I'd be very surprised if this was rain and even more disappointed to be honest.

I hope you are right but I'm not confident.

ECM FI

Battleground snow... now we're talking.

The people in the In Depth thread said there's a good chance of snow from these in Mid Jan...

I'd certainly hope for a battleground event, hopefully with the cold winning out of course, but I'd imagine any battleground would be a few days/week later than the ECM is suggesting.

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest day and night so far here!!

-5.3c already.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1817.png

There will be severe frosts later this week.

[Cymro]

Currently -6 here i suppose this shows what snow cover does? Looks like its going to get down fairly low tonight.

[Bobby]

This from Ian Fergusson in SW thread sounds interesting for us:

We've literally just received the very latest expert guidance from UKMO for next week off the modified GM and it's a raft of regional forecast headaches developing, me thinks. I have run out of time to embellish here, but the new run offers a risk into the SW/W towards Thurs/Fri due to some key variance in positioning the low off SE England and key change from last GM runs. I can't offer the modified graphics right now as they're very fresh from our UKMO colleagues, but this needs to be watched, I assure you.

He might be hinting at something some of the ensembles show with the snow stalling over us:

This ensemble gives ~24 hours of snow to parts of Wales. Something to watch, long shot though.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Barb-

[Marcus_surfer]

-1.5 °C here

[benb]

Currently -2.1c in Pontyates- Snow Capital of the Lower Gwendraeth Valley 2010

[Bobby]

double post

Edited January 3, 2010 by Barb-

[J10]

This is now the snowiest January since I kept consistent records back in the 1998/1999 winter. With 2 Met Office Snow Days. Which equals the total for winter 1998 to 2009 combined. A 3rd Met Office snow days seems likely for tomorrow.

There is an adjacent flat field which is still largely snow covered, despite sunshine all day.

Generally over the rest of the estate, Shaded areas, of all surfaces, paths, pavements, drives and gardens are snow covered. While areas open to the sun, which largely are sloped towards the sun, are largely snow free.

[immortal1969]

-3 upper brynamman

[mrmonopoly]

Can someone please explain what the charts are showing later on the week. Am I correct in assuming a front from SW is trying to push up but it looks like this brings warmer air with it or what.

Can I have it in semi layman terms, and what the chances are thanks guys

This is now the snowiest January since I kept consistent records back in the 1998/1999 winter. With 2 Met Office Snow Days. Which equals the total for winter 1998 to 2009 combined. A 3rd Met Office snow days seems likely for tomorrow.

There is an adjacent flat field which is still largely snow covered, despite sunshine all day.

Generally over the rest of the estate, Shaded areas, of all surfaces, paths, pavements, drives and gardens are snow covered. While areas open to the sun, which largely are sloped towards the sun, are largely snow free.

Snowiest since records began I wish, not had any at all here yet near port talbot. Rained mostly. Can you explain whats happening later on in the week for me in idiot terms and what the possible chances are and what might put a downer on everything

[SLAMMER]

Can someone please explain what the charts are showing later on the week. Am I correct in assuming a front from SW is trying to push up but it looks like this brings warmer air with it or what.

Can I have it in semi layman terms, and what the chances are thanks guys

it would be great if people put up their predictions for the weather, ie, it will snow tomorrow, or it will rain tomorrow over most of wales.

instead there are colourfull pictures that mean little unless you've spent a lot of time researching them and even then i'm guessing nobody really understands them as much as they make out.

[soupsurfer7]

Looks like some showers coming tomorrow night...anything serious or just a dusting?

[J10]

Can someone please explain what the charts are showing later on the week. Am I correct in assuming a front from SW is trying to push up but it looks like this brings warmer air with it or what.

Can I have it in semi layman terms, and what the chances are thanks guys

Snowiest since records began I wish, not had any at all here yet near port talbot. Rained mostly. Can you explain whats happening later on in the week for me in idiot terms and what the possible chances are and what might put a downer on everything

This just goes to show how BAD recent Januaries been.

For Tuesday's front, I have already made predictions earlier in thread.

After that Very cold with chance of snow later Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly dry then before another chance of snow towards Weekend. Very Cold with Severe overnight frosts.

There are no fronts trying to push up from the South West. Fronts are coming from the North initially then perhaps from the South East.

[SLAMMER]

For Tuesday's front, I have already made predictions earlier in thread.

After that Very cold with chance of snow later Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly dry then before another chance of snow towards Weekend. Very Cold with Severe overnight frosts.

There are no fronts trying to push up from the South West. Fronts are coming from the North initially then perhaps from the South East.

[Bobby]

it would be great if people put up their predictions for the weather, ie, it will snow tomorrow, or it will rain tomorrow over most of wales.

Outbreaks of light snow, sleety in the West, spreading south across Wales Tuesday morning giving a dusting in places, maybe a light covering on some hills.

[Ukwoody]

[quote name='SLAMMER' date='03 January 2010 - 19:52 '

instead there are colourfull pictures that mean little unless you've spent a lot of time researching them and even then i'm guessing nobody really understands them as much as they make out.

Edited January 3, 2010 by ukwoody

[keithlucky]

Looks like some showers coming tomorrow night...anything serious or just a dusting?

Got a mention heavy over ireland showers moving down irish sea reaching n wales tea time.

[J10]

To be honest, everyone is free to put their thoughts on here, and by doing so learning in the process.

[andymusic]

This from Ian Fergusson in SW thread sounds interesting for us:

Ian Fergusson, on 03 January 2010 - 19:15 , said:We've literally just received the very latest expert guidance from UKMO for next week off the modified GM and it's a raft of regional forecast headaches developing, me thinks. I have run out of time to embellish here, but the new run offers a risk into the SW/W towards Thurs/Fri due to some key variance in positioning the low off SE England and key change from last GM runs. I can't offer the modified graphics right now as they're very fresh from our UKMO colleagues, but this needs to be watched, I assure you.

He might be hinting at something some of the ensembles show with the snow stalling over us:

This ensemble gives ~24 hours of snow to parts of Wales. Something to watch, long shot though.

Think it's more to do with the positioning of the high (further north hopefully) and the front coming in from the south east on friday/saturday which in Wales we'll all hope will stream across us, as well as the south east/west of England - all depends on the influence/position of the high - but it sounds interesting!!!

Edited January 3, 2010 by andymusic

[loadsa]

it would be great if people put up their predictions for the weather, ie, it will snow tomorrow, or it will rain tomorrow over most of wales.

instead there are colourfull pictures that mean little unless you've spent a lot of time researching them and even then i'm guessing nobody really understands them as much as they make out.

You think you got problems understanding them, worse for me I am profoundly colour blind in the green and blue spectrum. They all look the same colour to me.

Has its benefits wife doesnt take me clothes shopping as its pointless asking what I think

[top data]

looks to me as if any showers tonight will have to travel 300 miles oh