Tropical Depression 01W

[Somerset Squall]

The rapidly consolidating invest 93W has become a tropical depression, the first of the 2010 season, just off the east coast of Vietnam. Intensity is 30kts. Though TC formation from Jan-Mar in this basin is significantly less than the rest of the year, it is not that unusual.

01W is not far off landfall, therefore has little time to strengthen. The depression is expected to become a weak tropical storm however, which could unleash some very heavy rains to southeastern Vietnam, which of course means there is potential for flooding and mudslides. Dissipation is then expected as 01W moves further inland overland into Thailand. There is a small risk that if 01W tracks a little further south it could emerge back over water in about 48hrs time near the Malay Peninsula. Just a small risk at the moment. 01W is expected however to track northwestwards over the next 2 days along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the northeast.

[Cookie]

how common are these though? January west Pacific systems?

[Somerset Squall]

It seems every other year or every other two years. There was a tropical storm in January in 2008, a typhoon in 2005, a tropical storm in 2003 and 2002, and so forth. Averaging about 1 every two years. January storms are not all that strong however as Winter pattern dominates with high shear across most of the basin. In addition, only the far south of the basin has waters warm enough to support development from Jan-Mar, the South China Sea being the most prone spot. As the area of warm water are small, January storms often don't have much time to strengthen.

Edited January 18, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks mate for getting back to me on that :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

thanks mate for getting back to me on that

No worries.

01W did not intensify overnight, and has since weakening due to increased windshear. 01W is very close to the Vietnamese coast now and will dissipate rapidly overland, but not before providing some torrential rains. A continued northwestwards heading is forecast until dissipation.