Tropical Cyclone Neville

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92P has continued to deepen off the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula, and has become Tropical Cyclone Neville, with intensity at 35kts. Neville is in an environment of low shear, warm sea temperatures and good outflow. This should promote intensification over the next few days, and BOM have Neville becoming a severe cyclone. Neville has stopped moving westwards and has remained quasi-stationary over the last 12hrs. The future track for Neville is extremley uncertain as the steering flow is very weak. This could mean that Neville doesn't move far at all over the next few days. Neville is providing heavy rains to Cape Flattery and Cooktown, which could persist if Neville lingers of the coast.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates.

what dose quasi-stationary mean?

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the updates.

what dose quasi-stationary mean?

Basically, it means very slow moving, with little or no motion. Neville has moved slightly westwards and now has moved northeastwards very slowly (at a speed of 1kt) today, meaning he has ended up practically where he started this morning. This motion is described as quasi-stationary. Hope that helps.

[Cookie]

Basically, it means very slow moving, with little or no motion. Neville has moved slightly westwards and now has moved northeastwards very slowly (at a speed of 1kt) today, meaning he has ended up practically where he started this morning. This motion is described as quasi-stationary. Hope that helps.

thanks mate. trying to think was it typhoon parma do that in the west Pacific last year?

[J07]

Quasi stationary is the proper name for stationary fronts, which are rarely entirely stationary!

Anyway....goodbye Neville! Though he may be back!

[Cookie]

shear!

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, Neville has been shredded by shear. The convection has been removed westwards from the LLC which has now been exposed for 12hrs. Neville has a small shot at regaining TC status before the remnant low pushes westwards inland across the Cape York Peninsula again.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Neville has swung northwards, then eastwards around recently developed TC Olga. However, ex-Neville needs watching. It appears still that Olga will absorb ex-Neville, however, it is interesting to note that the remnant low of Neville has become better defined and is indeed redeveloping some convection over the last few hours. If ex-Neville gets stronger, then it is just about possible that he could dominate Olga (oh err!), however, this is just a small risk at present. Interesting to watch!

This animation shows the interaction between Olga and ex-Neville (you can see Neville becoming better defined in the last couple slides east of Olga):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/austeast/movies/gmsir/gmsirjava.html