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Ipcc Hurricane Data Being Questioned....


asjmcguire

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/15/hatton_on_hurricanes/

    No demonstratable link found between perceived global warming and increase in hurricanes....

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The problem is that IPCC is quite correct that n.Atlantic hurricanes have increased in intensity.

    They are quite correct to say that temps in the north atlantic are higher.

    The increase in hurricanes is higher than that expected due to AGW.

    The IPCC makes no mention of the pacific.

    Hatton's results do make sense, but doesn't contradict the IPCC.

    i.e both sets are right, but the register to putting alot of spin on it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yeah its interesting to note that the basins do seem to have a cyclical set-up where the Atlantic will typically have stronger seasons when the East Pacific has weaker seasons and vice versa.

    Its very tricky to say what will happen, because many factors come into play to get an active hurricane season, esp in the Atlantic.

    SST's for example aren't always the be all and end all, shear probably is even more important then that and how shear responds to AGW is something that there must be a lot of debate about. IF sst's increase then in theory El ninos should become stronger over time and that would increase shear, whilst at the same time if the Jets are further north then that should mean in theory less shear....so its a right mess in terms of knowing what will happen.

    Its actually interesting to note that we are going through a global depression of storms at the moment which kicked in at exactly the same time as the solar min...probably not pure chance that this has happened at the same time....

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

    The problem is that IPCC is quite correct that n.Atlantic hurricanes have increased in intensity.

    They are quite correct to say that temps in the north atlantic are higher.

    The increase in hurricanes is higher than that expected due to AGW.

    The IPCC makes no mention of the pacific.

    Hatton's results do make sense, but doesn't contradict the IPCC.

    i.e both sets are right, but the register to putting alot of spin on it.

    I have to take issue regarding this, hurricane activity in the Atlantic, as been on the decline over the last few years. How anyone can state otherwise, is simply misleading and inaccurate!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Yes SC the last 2 years have been below average, but I doubt the IPCC have said that every single year will be above average for hurricanes.

    So to put it simply, knowbody is saying that the last 2 years have not seen declining activity. !

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

    So thats two years of lower temps in some areas of the NH and lower hurricane activity...interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I have to take issue regarding this, hurricane activity in the Atlantic, as been on the decline over the last few years. How anyone can state otherwise, is simply misleading and inaccurate!

    Its certainly quite interesting to note the decline of the average over the last 4 years, its very marked when compared against the high point between 2003-2005, though it is worth noting we have had several big ENSO events in the last 4 years (2 El nino and 1 La nina) and that combined with the solar min probably has helped to take the edge of the numbers in the last few years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I thought the lack of 'canes churning the upper ocean horizons allowed for warmer oceans?

    The more 'canes the cooler the ocean surely?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well strong hurricanes certainly will cause brief cooling of the waters thats true, but in peak summer months you'll find if you get a decent warm set-up over the waters the surface temps will rise rather quickly again. A great example of this was with Katrina and Rita. In late August Katrina left a trail of colder waters in the gulf but by the time Rita travelled over those waters again they had fully recovered again.

    Also remember warmer waters means storms have a greater chance of getting stronger, which therefore means it all sort of balances itself out in the end.

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