Tropical Cyclone Bandu

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 93A has become the second tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean 2010 season. 02A is located south of Socotra Island, and is currently moving west-northwestwards along the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge located over the central Arabian Sea. 02A has deep convection over the LLC and good spiral banding. Current intensity is 35kts, and 02A has around 24hrs to strengthen before shear elevates and waters cool as the cyclone tracks into the Gulf Of Aden. Socotra Island and northeastern Somalia are at risk of strong winds are heavy rains over the next few days as 02A slides past into the gulf and dissipates.

[Cookie]

very nicely structured system.

[Somerset Squall]

02A looks rather impressive this evening just off the Somalian coast. Convective banding remains strong, but the most notable feature this the large expansion of central convection. Intensity has increased to 45kts. 02A is still tracking west-northwestwards towards the Gulf Of Aden, where increasing shear and dry air should kill 02A before the cyclone can track too far into the Gulf.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

02A has strengthened further and more than anticipated, and has been given the name Bandu, with intensity at 55kts. Strong poleward outflow and low shear has facilitated this intensification despite dry air pulling towards the LLC from the Somalian Desert. The dry air and increasing shear will eventually win out however, but it appears Bandu will manage to track quite far into the Gulf Of Aden as the LLC is very strong. Seems very odd to have a tropical cyclone tracking into desert territory!

[Somerset Squall]

Bandu has weakened to a remnant low. Dry air entrainment, and elevated shear are the primary causes for the demise of Bandu. However, convection has managed to explode over the disorganised LLC this morning and is giving very heavy rains to northern Somalia. Re-development into a tropical cyclone is not anticipated though as the remnant low of Bandu moves further into the Gulf Of Aden.