Tropical Storm Agatha

[kold weather]

Just a quick post to confirm that Td1-E, which was formerly Invest 90E has been upgraded.

Convection somewhat lopsided with the main deep convection on the northern and north-eastern side of the LLC. Conditions aloft look decent for strengthen with a decent inflow and also a good outflow channel on the northern side of the system which should aid steady strengthening. The structure is looking decent though as I said the convection is mainly on the northern flanks. Land interaction is probably going to be an issue as the system gets closer to land and the western flank starts to draw down subsidence from the Central American mountions....but for now the Vis.imagery shows a proto CDO forming about 100 miles off land, so I'd expect the NHC forecast of something around the 50-55kts range at landfall to be a good one, may slightly weaken just before landfall thanks to the land interaction with the mountions, but that remains to be seen, the explosive convection may well balance that out...

Track has seen the system move W/WNW and now in response to an upper trough digging down weakly into the Gulf of Mexico should be enough to take this system ENE/NE, depending on the actual sharpness of the upper trough. Landfall should occur on current heading around 12-18hrs time. Most of the weather will be to the NE/N of the center itself.

ps, Its just worth noting I wouldn't totally rule out hurricane status at this moment, I don't think it'll have enough time to get to that stage but the environment its in right now is condusive for a hurricane, its just time is probably not on its side...If I had to make a call I'd say a peak of between 55-60kts at the moment, though I'm wary that will need perhaps a little longer over waters than I've estimated perhaps.

[pyrotech]

Just a quick post to confirm that Td1-E, which was formerly Invest 90E has been upgraded.

Convection somewhat lopsided with the main deep convection on the northern and north-eastern side of the LLC. Conditions aloft look decent for strengthen with a decent inflow and also a good outflow channel on the northern side of the system which should aid steady strengthening. The structure is looking decent though as I said the convection is mainly on the northern flanks. Land interaction is probably going to be an issue as the system gets closer to land and the western flank starts to draw down subsidence from the Central American mountions....but for now the Vis.imagery shows a proto CDO forming about 100 miles off land, so I'd expect the NHC forecast of something around the 50-55kts range at landfall to be a good one, may slightly weaken just before landfall thanks to the land interaction with the mountions, but that remains to be seen, the explosive convection may well balance that out...

Track has seen the system move W/WNW and now in response to an upper trough digging down weakly into the Gulf of Mexico should be enough to take this system ENE/NE, depending on the actual sharpness of the upper trough. Landfall should occur on current heading around 12-18hrs time. Most of the weather will be to the NE/N of the center itself.

ps, Its just worth noting I wouldn't totally rule out hurricane status at this moment, I don't think it'll have enough time to get to that stage but the environment its in right now is condusive for a hurricane, its just time is probably not on its side...If I had to make a call I'd say a peak of between 55-60kts at the moment, though I'm wary that will need perhaps a little longer over waters than I've estimated perhaps.

Must say i agree with your 55-60kts, Would expect it to reach it in about 24hrs with that warm water feeding it. Think then hitting land and dumping a few inches of water and remaining just shy of Hurricane throughout until it dissipates back to a depression on landfall.

My web site has lots of data for Atlantic but not pacific hurricanes, if any one wants more on there let me know.

[Somerset Squall]

Agatha has already killed 4 in Guatemala due to flooding rains. Sadly, this toll is likely to rise as Agatha makes landfall tomorrow. Intensity still at 35kts at present but the storm still has a window of opportunity to strengthen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64S1A620100529

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

Agatha is moving inland

0

0

WTPZ61 KNHC 292234

TCUEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010

340 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...CENTER OF AGATHA CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO

BORDER...

AT 340 PM PDT...2240 UTC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES

INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF AGATHA IS CROSSING THE COAST ALONG THE

BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST

OF TAPACHULA MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 340 PM PDT INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 92.2W

ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM...SE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[MAF]

looks like she has done quite a bit of damage and sadly 12 reported dead so far.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/latin_america/10191957.stm

latest info from NHC

0300 UTC SUN MAY 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN

DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 92.0W AT 30/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[kold weather]

Well Agatha ame inland quite a bit quicker then expected, looks like the weakness to the NE was a little stronger then was expected. We did see a brief spell where the strcuture and convection blew up over water but it didn't really have the time to build upon it.

Convection blew up as it headed towards landfall and thats probably not helped, nor has the fact the ground was very wet already. I suspect you can thank frictional tightening as the LLC strengthened briefly and convection blew up just as the system moved to landfall.

[Cookie]

A lot of heavy rain from this

in El Salvador

[Somerset Squall]

Agatha does bear watching over the coming days. The remnants are ahead of schedule and are sitting on the coast near Belize, poised to move over Caribbean water. Conditions are marginal at best really, with warm sea temps, but moderate shear and large amounts of dry air, particularly to ex-Agatha's west. Ex-Agatha more than likely won't re-form into a tropical storm, but the remnants could bring heavy rains to Cuba and even as far north as Florida as it travels north and east this coming week.

[mettalfabrik]

as if TS agatha is,nt enough i hear via BBC WORLD SERVICE they (guatamala) have had a volcanic eruption also!

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Blackdown, a really deadly combo. The ash has probably worsened the flooding also.

Latest tolls sadly suggest that 99 people have died due to Agatha and the volcano:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0531/centralamerica.html

I think Agatha looks like a candidate for retirement, despite only being a 40kt tropical storm. Just goes to show that the storm doesn't have to be intense to cause a disaster.

[Cookie]

They should retire this Name, very sad news

[Gray-Wolf]

If she continues north it looks like she'll stay over water and into the Gulf. Any info on conditions in the south Gulf or is she on the way down?

[kold weather]

To be blunt once you get north of say 23-25N, conditions in the S.GUlf right now are pretty awful, shear of about 30-40kts is not going allow anything to get going at least for a little while. I'd watch further down the line, if it can get out in the W.Atlantic eventually it might have a chance but thats a very long way down the line still.

[Cookie]

Officially been deactivated

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

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[Gray-Wolf]

Still looks like a big blob of convection out there about to drift into the Gulf. If there is a lot of shear then it'll be smashed up pretty soon but getting cold cloudtops at the mo.

[ukweathergirl]

To add to events happening in Guatemala recently:

Guatemala

[Somerset Squall]

Latest, and probably final death tolls from Agatha are now 198, with a further 119 people missing, presumed dead. This makes Agatha the deadliest eastern Pacific tropical cyclone since Pauline in 1997.

[Cookie]

very sad news indeed, its going to be a long summer for this kind of news :lol: