Chase 2010 - Day 35 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

...CO/KS/OK/TX...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL

OK. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAS HELPED TO PUSH A

FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD

TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WHERE

STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY

EARLY EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST

CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT

INTO SOUTHERN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN OK. STRONG

INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO BE

PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...HELPING TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND

THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

Not expecting great things Tornado wise today but hopefully we can get on some nice Structure and you never quite know what Colorado and SW Kansas will throw at you with these set ups.

One thing for sure though, another noisy night with an MCS Ongoing at where we end up, so more Lightning ops!

Paul S & Tour 4

[Tom Lynch]

...CO/KS/OK/TX...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL

OK. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAS HELPED TO PUSH A

FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD

TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WHERE

STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY

EARLY EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST

CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT

INTO SOUTHERN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN OK. STRONG

INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO BE

PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...HELPING TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND

THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

Not expecting great things Tornado wise today but hopefully we can get on some nice Structure and you never quite know what Colorado and SW Kansas will throw at you with these set ups.

One thing for sure though, another noisy night with an MCS Ongoing at where we end up, so more Lightning ops!

Paul S & Tour 4

OK so I guess you are heading up towards the panhandles ?

Tom

[Roger J Smith]

Much talk about a scorching heat wave developing across TX and OK later this week, highs into the 39-44 C range. After Thursday, some of the best severe weather may be in the Great Lakes region with a confluent jet developing there. More reachable might be se SD and sw MN which are also much less tree-infested than WI or MI.

[ian cameron]

hi all we are heading down I40 at the mo then going north from clinton on high way 183 to woodword as our enitial target area

[dogs32]

good luck for tonight...wish I was there,will be watching as long as I can...but very bad jet lag.

Edited May 31, 2010 by dogs32

[craig1uk]

Hope you have a good chase, wish I was still over there, will be watchin too, hope u see some nice couplets

[dogs32]

Hope you have a good chase, wish I was still over there, will be watchin too, hope u see some nice couplets

the Vils are not maxed yet Craig...lol..

Just to let you know I have started to upload the chases up into Youtube...

will take a long time to complete but worth the wait...

some awesome footage of a incredible year

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrDogs32

Edited May 31, 2010 by dogs32

[duckeyh]

Hope you guys get a great show. Would love to be there but Margaritaville is calling!

[NL]

Mesoscale discussion issued from the NWS/SPC concerning severe potential likely.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0233 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND

TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311933Z - 312100Z

SEVERE THREAT...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING

WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE

TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHWEST KS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS

EARLY AS 20Z-21Z.

TOWERING CU/SOME INCIPIENT TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE

NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TIME...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN

A WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHEAST

CO/EASTERN NM...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A GRADUALLY RETREATING BOUNDARY ACROSS

THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHWEST KS. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/DEEP

LAYER FLOW ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AMIDST GRADUAL LARGE SCALE

HEIGHT RISES...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND A MOIST/MODERATELY

UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH

ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY

CONCERN...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE OF A THREAT TOWARD

EVENING WITH UPSCALE/MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 238

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS

SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALHART

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE AIR MASS NOW VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA

2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR

PROFILES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE

WATCH. PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL

THREAT GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

Edited May 31, 2010 by NL

[ian cameron]

Hi Pat, Craig and clare and not forgeting Tom the streaming is off today will try to get it up and running tomorrow glad you all got home/vegas not to hopeful for today there will be storms but prob no tornado risk today more of a chance tomorrow near Iowa will keep you uptodate as we go toady

[NL]

Cell in the watch area is Tornado warned.

551

WFUS55 KPUB 311957

TORPUB

COC009-312100-

/O.NEW.KPUB.TO.W.0028.100531T1957Z-100531T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO

157 PM MDT MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 300 PM MDT

* AT 152 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF PRITCHETT...OR 20 MILES WEST

OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. AT 155 PM MDT A STORM

CHASER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.

[dogs32]

thanks for the update Ian,was trying to keep my eyes open to watch the stream...

hope you get some nice storms and nice food later..NOT Deny's

[ian cameron]

just gassed up in woodward and are now heading north on the 183 to fort supply then west from there

[MAF]

just gassed up in woodward and are now heading north on the 183 to fort supply then west from there

hi Ian, as much as its appreciated you giving us updates online.... its just not the same as live streaming

hope tour 4 are enjoying the trip so far

mick

[NL]

Nice looking cell on visible satellite and ....ahem...only just over 100 miles from Fort Supply.

[craig1uk]

Cheers Ian, hope you guys didn't cook for too long at DFW, wow !

[NL]

The team might not be on this storm but US stormchaser Mike Phelps is and he's reported 4 tornadoes one quite large and 7 funnels. The storm is organizing itself once again.. Awesome looking storm with beautiful structure.

http://www.chasertv....mike-phelps.php

Edited May 31, 2010 by NL

[Tom Lynch]

Hi Pat, Craig and clare and not forgeting Tom the streaming is off today will try to get it up and running tomorrow glad you all got home/vegas not to hopeful for today there will be storms but prob no tornado risk today more of a chance tomorrow near Iowa will keep you uptodate as we go toady

thanks for the mention.

Tom

[ian cameron]

now heading to gymon the we will see what cell to chase either the springfeild cell or the cell developing round dumas will update then

[Tom Lynch]

The cell n/west of Guymon seems best option atm

[ian cameron]

Tom thats the one we are going to look at first and then see whats going doing mick will see if we cant get the streaming up and running tomorrow for you just got to get the logistics right with three laptops running and all the wires etc etc

but thanks for following

[NL]

Yeah that storm is moving at a snails pace between 5 and 7 mph..!! Showing slight signs of weakening but is still an amazing looking storm with some fantastic Cg's.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Good to see you back around Woodward again.

Also if I remember right, Fort Supply was where Pat and Tom caused a panic, but maybe the less said about that the better!

Anyway good look tour 4, hope there's plenty of chase days and supercells, and hopefully a few tornadoes too.

Already counting down the weeks to next year, less than 48 weeks to go!

[MAF]

Tom thats the one we are going to look at first and then see whats going doing mick will see if we cant get the streaming up and running tomorrow for you just got to get the logistics right with three laptops running and all the wires etc etc

but thanks for following

no probs mate. been a great 3 weeks so far so am hoping the last week will be just as good. happy hunting you lot

[NL]

Rapid rotation on the cell but the rain band is rather too close and unfortunately has started to undercut the wall cloud and lessened the chances of it dropping a tornado with a feed of cold air from the close rain shaft, funnel has re-developed but could easily get choked again.