Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Phet

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, stunning image Cookie- cyclones of this intensity aren't all that common in the Arabian Sea, and particularly not so close to Oman and desert regions! Looks like Phet could well be crossing the coast to head inland now. JTWC seem quite keen on the idea of a moist inflow channel from the Arabian Sea halting weakening as Phet tracks over Oman and has the cyclone landfalling at 55kt intensity near Karachi, Pakistan beyond the 72hr time period. This is different to previous forecasts from this agency which suggested rapid weakening over Oman and landfall near Karachi at depression strength. This idea of the moist inflow channel sustaining Phet could well pan out- you just need to look at how well Phet is coping with the abundant dry air over the landmass of Oman to see it's getting help from somewhere.

[Cookie]

[StOrM18]

night yestarday, cyclone Phet hit the coast of eastern Oman. Causing heavy rains and flooding of the valleys. Still persistent torrential rain there, so the situation is tragic in that region.

Here in the north of Oman will be the situation may be disturbing in the hours next, we are exposed currently rain moderately, and sometimes heavier

I think in the coming hours will see the capital Muscat, where heavy rain the vellays floods the path of the center is still moving towards the north-west.

Edited June 4, 2010 by StOrM18

[StOrM18]

Rainfall on the towns east of Amman.

City of Sur, 331 ml

Masirah Island 117 ml

[Somerset Squall]

Some pretty high totals there StOrM18!

Phet has finally turned towards the northeast and is emerging over water. Convection has decreased somewhat today due to the passage over land, but the inner core remains strong, and intensity has only fallen to 65kts, meaning Phet is still a cat 1. Shear is increasing however, and this should weaken Phet a little more before landfall near Karachi.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates.

[Cookie]

weakening fast now

[StOrM18]

After cyclone Phet, has so far caused the death of 8 persons and there are 4 missing. There are also areas that were not able to defend points of access to those areas and uninterrupted communications in those areas. Particular areas of the east coast of Oman

Edited June 5, 2010 by StOrM18

[Cookie]

Final Track