In The News

[Kained]

Paul Hudson's BBC weather, blog post on the subject http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/10/met-office-finally-wakes-up-to.shtml

[knocker]

Endangered species? Should cheap phosphorus be first on an elemental 'Red List?'

Should the periodic table bear a warning label in the 21st century or be revised with a lesson about elemental supply and demand?

If so, that lesson could start with one element considered a staple of life – but growing endangered, like the Asiatic dhole – phosphorus.

Why is phosphorus pivotal? Phosphorus is in the DNA of all plants and animals. It is a key ingredient in fertilizer, but high quality phosphate deposits for mining are limited in both quantity and locality. Indeed, there are increasing concerns that with 85% of the resource limited to three countries in the world, inexpensive phosphorus may become a vestige of the past.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-10/asu-ess101311.php

[Alan Robinson]

Endangered species? Should cheap phosphorus be first on an elemental 'Red List?'

Should the periodic table bear a warning label in the 21st century or be revised with a lesson about elemental supply and demand?

If so, that lesson could start with one element considered a staple of life – but growing endangered, like the Asiatic dhole – phosphorus.

Why is phosphorus pivotal? Phosphorus is in the DNA of all plants and animals. It is a key ingredient in fertilizer, but high quality phosphate deposits for mining are limited in both quantity and locality. Indeed, there are increasing concerns that with 85% of the resource limited to three countries in the world, inexpensive phosphorus may become a vestige of the past.

http://www.eurekaler...u-ess101311.php

I am sure some Cornucopian businessman will rubbish this and say "hey, if we run out of phosphorus, no problem, we'll just make some more..."

[Alan Robinson]

If anyone wants to know what Britain's next generation of national grid pylons will look like, here you are.

Bystrup Architects of Copenhagen just won a prize of GBP 5000 in a contest arranged by our Department of Environment and Energy, for the design of new pylons. It seems we have somehting like 88,000 pylons, some of which have been standing since the 1920s.

Edited October 15, 2011 by Alan Robinson

[pottyprof]

An interesting piece from Johnny Ball on the subject of Global Warming.

As someone who has dedicated his life to popularising science and mathematics for young people, I find it hard — hurtful even — to be cast in the role of villain.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1359350/Zoe-Balls-father-Johnny-vilified-questioning-global-warming.html#ixzz1aqlXoVWZ

[BornFromTheVoid]

Blinded, maybe even brainwashed by the climate-change zealots

those who have been worshipping so ardently at the altar of reduced carbon emissions — and how quickly they adopted the messianic zeal and intolerance of a religion — may find that they have been deifying not just a false god but a ruinously expensive one, too.

The cult of reducing carbon emissions

they’re changing the sums, and manipulating the maths.

Already I can hear those wholeheartedly committed to the global warming cause queuing up to cast the first stone at such blatant heresy.

So, this guy says things like those quoted above, and seems surprised when people get pi**ed off with him? I find the whole article quite amusing actually.

Garnering pity, turning it into anger, directing it as willed: 101

List how you've been vilified but show that you won't back down, you're morally courageous.

Attack and insult huge groups of people and their opinions

Talk about the children, their futures, and how the "global warming fascists" are causing them to grow up in fear.

Finish up with a final attack on the science to direct the anger and passion now enfused in the reader towards the AGW theory.

Bravo

[pottyprof]

Totally agree with your points BFTV, and is the reason why I found it interesting. David Bellamy did exactly the same thing and wondered why he wasn't being taken seriously. I agree with some of his points to do with the cost of some of the replacement technologies though. I would have thought with his level of intelligence he would have made his points without resorting to the sort of stuff you see on some forums. I'm quite disgusted really...

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's a pity that this kinda thing is published though. So many people will be taken in by it. But I guess many aren't interested in a reasoned argument and rely on the emotive writing to form their opinions.

I suppose the only positive thing is it acts as a slight balance to the ridiculous "Global Warming Armageddon" sections you see every now and then, where they predicts unrealistic temperature/CO2 rises with global desertification masked an inevitable scientific reality.

[jethro]

To be fair though, Al Gore did exactly the same thing but from the opposite side of the divide - he got a Noble Prize. Now if anything's shocking, that is.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't take much notice of the nobel peace prize anymore after Obama managed to get it, while spending more on the military than any previous president whilst (as far as I can remember) being elected president only 2 weeks before the peace prize nominations deadline!

[loafer]

It's a pity that this kinda thing is published though. So many people will be taken in by it. But I guess many aren't interested in a reasoned argument and rely on the emotive writing to form their opinions.

I suppose the only positive thing is it acts as a slight balance to the ridiculous "Global Warming Armageddon" sections you see every now and then, where they predicts unrealistic temperature/CO2 rises with global desertification masked an inevitable scientific reality.

Taken in by what? It seemed to me to be a perfectly reasonable and level headed article.

What is it that you fundamentally disagreed with?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Taken in by what? It seemed to me to be a perfectly reasonable and level headed article.

What is it that you fundamentally disagreed with?

I'm not entirely sure whether you're being serious or not... but just incase, check the quotes from it on post number 1256. I don't see much level headedness there.

All he did was rant in his article and offered nothing scientific to back up his statements.

[loafer]

It is very easy to use selective quotes to make anyone look foolish.

The broader point made by the article is that AGW proponents have become less like scientists who are interested in facts and more like a religion where any ideas which diminish their own are dismissed out of hand.

Recently we have seen the potential effect of solar radiation on weather patterns come forward again, and the initial reaction of many was to say that it doesn't fit the mantra, it can't be true.

Another example is the recent research around the potential for heat to escape into space as an explanation for why real life global temperatures aren't rising as fast as the models predicted. This was immediately refuted and a new theory that it must be in the sub-sea came out of nowhere, because it fits the established theories better.

It seems to me that the sooner ideas are considered on their merits and investigated and then dismissed or validated, rather than their proposers being dismissed out of hand, the sooner we get back to science and away from politics.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It is very easy to use selective quotes to make anyone look foolish.

The broader point made by the article is that AGW proponents have become less like scientists who are interested in facts and more like a religion where any ideas which diminish their own are dismissed out of hand.

Recently we have seen the potential effect of solar radiation on weather patterns come forward again, and the initial reaction of many was to say that it doesn't fit the mantra, it can't be true.

Another example is the recent research around the potential for heat to escape into space as an explanation for why real life global temperatures aren't rising as fast as the models predicted. This was immediately refuted and a new theory that it must be in the sub-sea came out of nowhere, because it fits the established theories better.

It seems to me that the sooner ideas are considered on their merits and investigated and then dismissed or validated, rather than their proposers being dismissed out of hand, the sooner we get back to science and away from politics.

I don't think I was being all that selective. The entire article was littered with with insults and sweeping statements against those he doesn't agree with, which is quite hypocritical in my opinion. He offered no scientific basis for his accusations and simply went on a rant.

Mr Ball seemed less like a reasoned man and more like an angry child wanting to get back at the meanies.

I agree that much of the AGW proponents often over look other possibilities outside of those presented by the IPCC which is a problem. Johnny Ball could have made his argument without resorting to the childish insults, but choose instead to appeal with to the masses with rhetoric and emotion than the reasoned arguments you made and many others on this forum make.

Just because you may agree with his overall position on the climate change debate, really doesn't mean you should defend that kinda article. It does nothing for the science and especially for the "sceptical" side the spectrum. In my opinion, it's the very thing we should be trying to move away from.

[loafer]

I don't condone his overly emotive article, but after what he's been through, I'm not surprised.

All I'm saying is that I'd rather deal with the cause than the symptom.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well perhaps he should have stuck to the science and not have been a hypocrite.

Anyway, it appears many of the claims made in the last article aren't quite what or as bad as they seemed.

http://www.guardian....mear-challenged

Never did I say [to the TES] my present problems were the work of environmentalists.

The Daily Express ran with: Climate 'zealots' hate me, says Ball, but Ball has told me he has since complained to the paper about the article and it is no longer available online

I haven't blamed "climate zealots", as some are now reporting

[knocker]

The recent rapid rise in the gold price has obviously led to higher demand at a time when production has been falling. This has led to some major environmental problems, along with other worrying trends, in the Peruvian Amazon.

Since 1998, artisanal mining has been responsible for 20-30 per cent of global gold production, according to Jennifer Swenson, assistant professor of geospatial analysis at Duke University' Nicholas School of the Environment. Recent research by Swenson and colleagues, using remote sensing, has linked the record price of gold with a six-fold increase in deforestation in parts of the Peruvian Amazon.

http://today.duke.edu/2011/04/goldperu

Edited October 16, 2011 by weather ship

[Alan Robinson]

The recent rapid rise in the gold price has obviously led to higher demand at a time when production has been falling. This has led to some major environmental problems, along with other worrying trends, in the Peruvian Amazon.

Since 1998, artisanal mining has been responsible for 20-30 per cent of global gold production, according to Jennifer Swenson, assistant professor of geospatial analysis at Duke University' Nicholas School of the Environment. Recent research by Swenson and colleagues, using remote sensing, has linked the record price of gold with a six-fold increase in deforestation in parts of the Peruvian Amazon.

http://today.duke.edu/2011/04/goldperu

I am afraid I am with Sir Thomas More on this subject. Foreign Ambassadors to Utopia were the subject of mirth, parading down the street on their arrival, with gold chains round their necks. The Utopians knew fine well that gold is virtually useless to common people. Gold has nowadays a few uses in medicine, and perhaps also in specialist electronics, but otherwise its only curious properties are its resistance to corrosion and its scarcity. That people actually mine this soft and mostly useless metal is astounding, but then, More and Erasmus of Rotterdam knew this five centuries ago. Didn't Henry VIII bebase silver coinage about 50% by dilution so he could spend more?

Q: Who cares about gold? A: people that want something for nothing.

[VillagePlank]

I don't take much notice of the nobel peace prize anymore after Obama managed to get it, while spending more on the military than any previous president whilst (as far as I can remember) being elected president only 2 weeks before the peace prize nominations deadline!

Was that adjusted for inflation?

[VillagePlank]

I am afraid I am with Sir Thomas More on this subject. Foreign Ambassadors to Utopia were the subject of mirth, parading down the street on their arrival, with gold chains round their necks. The Utopians knew fine well that gold is virtually useless to common people. Gold has nowadays a few uses in medicine, and perhaps also in specialist electronics, but otherwise its only curious properties are its resistance to corrosion and its scarcity. That people actually mine this soft and mostly useless metal is astounding, but then, More and Erasmus of Rotterdam knew this five centuries ago. Didn't Henry VIII bebase silver coinage about 50% by dilution so he could spend more?

Q: Who cares about gold? A: people that want something for nothing.

Not quite true. Well, at least, the specialist electronics are widespread inasmuch that it is used in all products that use any sort of computational device[1]

[1] http://www.gold.org/technology/uses/electronics/

[knocker]

U.S. Rivers and Streams Saturated with Carbon

Significant amount of carbon in land is leaking into streams and rivers, then to the atmosphere.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=121994&org=NSF&from=news

[VillagePlank]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-15373071

The world is warming - very tempted just to say "no sh 1 t sherlock" ....

Still, made me laugh that so much money, so much time, so much effort has gone into this. We know the long term trend is up - it's what causes/caused it that's the interesting bit.

What is good is this bit

In part, this counters the accusation made during "Climategate" that climate scientists formed a tight clique who peer-reviewed each others' papers and made sure their own global warming narrative was the only one making it into print.

But for Richard Muller, this free circulation also marks a return to how science should be done.

"That is the way I practised science for decades; it was the way everyone practised it until some magazines - particularly Science and Nature - forbade it," he said.

"That was not a good change, and still many fields such as string theory practice the traditional method wholeheartedly."

This open "wiki" method of review is regularly employed in physics, the home field for seven of the 10 Berkeley team.

You mean I won't have to pay for knowledge any more?

Edited October 21, 2011 by Sparticle

[knocker]

NASA, NOAA Data Show Significant Antarctic Ozone Hole Remains

WASHINGTON -- The Antarctic ozone hole, which yawns wide every Southern Hemisphere spring, reached its annual peak on Sept. 12. It stretched to 10.05 million square miles, the ninth largest ozone hole on record. Above the South Pole, the ozone hole reached its deepest point of the season on Oct. 9, tying this year for the 10th lowest in this 26-year record.

NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) use balloon-borne instruments, ground-based instruments and satellites to monitor the annual Antarctic ozone hole, global levels of ozone in the stratosphere and the manmade chemicals that contribute to ozone depletion.

"The colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere this year caused a larger than average ozone hole," said Paul Newman, chief scientist for atmospheres at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "Even though it was relatively large, the area of this year's ozone hole was within the range we'd expect given the levels of manmade ozone-depleting chemicals that continue to persist in the atmosphere."

http://www.nasa.gov/...ehole_2011.html

Edited October 21, 2011 by weather ship

[Alan Robinson]

It seems climate scientists are aware of the need for cross-disciplinary co-operation, and they do not regard state-of-the-art climate science as the finished article. Here is my loose translation of the link below;

Applied climate research is the program in Denver.

With the theme “Climate Research for Society” more than 700 climate researchers from 80 different countries will convene in Denver, Colorado, just east of the Rocky Mountains.

Their aims are to

• · Review contemporary climate science and provide a valuable contribution to the IPCCs 5^th major report
  
• · Identify opportunities and challenges connected to weather observations, climate models and analyses in order to improve estimates of how Earth’s climate might develop, and also the occurrence of extreme weather conditions.
  
• · To facilitate interaction between various scientific disciplines in order to improve our understanding of Earth as a system
  
• · To draw attention to research supportive of climate services, as instigated at the World Climate Conference III in 2009
  

Participants expect wide-ranging talks, including extreme weather; optimising weather observations, regional reliability of climate models, future sea levels, and the requirements of business for new climate knowledge.

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/anvendt_klimaforskning_paa_programmet_i_denver

[Alan Robinson]

Well, those who claim scince knows it all, read on;

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/klimamodeller_skal_finjusteres

More from the climate conference in Denver;

CLIMATE MODELS NEED SMALL ADJUSTMENTS

Climate researchers are among the first to agree that mathematical models used to predict future climate need improvement.

One theme for debate during Wednesday’s WCRP conference in Denver was how climate models might be enhanced, and are they in fact so poor as some people imply.

“Briefly put, they are generally quite good” says DMI’s Jens Hesselberg. “They show consensus in many respects, and agree regarding overall tendencies. We ought not forget that current climate models are in fact based on algorithms used for our weather forecasts.”

Problems arise however when we go into details regarding localities, timing and types of phenomenon.

The method used to optimize climate models is to look back in time to well-documented situations, and to see if our climate models could predict their occurrence. If the phenomenon is not predicted – perhaps the position of a ridge of high pressure; a strong air current in the atmosphere, or sea surface temperatures – then investigations begin in order to understand why the model fails, and what is needed to make it work.

“But we should not simply create increasingly complex models”, says Sandrine Bony of Laboratorie de Meteorologie Dynamique. “We must understand the elementary physical science used to write the models. Only when we truly understand the science can we improve the models.

Sandrine Bony’s point is that many people nowadays use climate model predictions to guide them in future investments. Duty of care therefore demands that not only climate models be continuously improved, but our overall understanding of the climate.